Ebola and other Epidemics, Inadequate Healthcare Threatens Millions

[jimmy olsen]

Stat guy says 1.2 million will die in 6 months.

Can any of our math people debunk this?

http://www.statsblogs.com/2014/09/06/1-2-millions-deaths-by-ebola-projected-within-six-months/

[The Brain]

Stat guy says 1.2 million will die in 6 months.

Can any of our math people debunk this?

http://www.statsblogs.com/2014/09/06/1-2-millions-deaths-by-ebola-projected-within-six-months/

Seems legit.

[jimmy olsen]

His prediction for this week was right on the dot!

[PJL]

This is the plot of cases & deaths so far, in a log scale format. The outbreak looked like it could have been contained at the end of April & beginning of May, but since June the number of cases have been doubling every month, and if anything the rate is slightly increasing.

[mongers]

Maybe we could use this thread for all Epidemics and world health issues?


Incidentally I've been reading up on efficient health charities to donate to, and it looks like a couple of de-worming initiatives in the 3rd world provide a lot of bang for your donated buck.

I'll see if I can find a link.

[The Brain]

Is log scale better than bad?

[Caliga]

Relax.

You always say that. At what threshold is okay not to relax? 100,000 cases? 250,000? More?

I tell you to relax simply because you get too worked up over stuff.  Getting anxious isn't going to solve anything.

[mongers]

8 September 2014 Last updated at 19:53

Ebola crisis: Liberia 'faces huge surge' says WHO

Ebola is spreading exponentially in Liberia, with thousands of new cases expected in the next three weeks, the World Health Organization (WHO) says.

Conventional methods to control the outbreak were "not having an adequate impact", the UN's health agency added.

.....

Full article here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29115298

[jimmy olsen]

Really looking bad.

Thanks for the title change though

[jimmy olsen]

http://news.sciencemag.org/africa/2014/09/how-deadly-ebola-statistical-challenges-may-be-inflating-survival-rate

The fatality rate is much higher than raw numbers make it appear. It's closer to 70% than 50%

[Eddie Teach]

Really looking bad.

Thanks for the title change though

Thanks for the change of heart that made the old title obsolete. 

[grumbler]

"Ebolapalooza?"  That's rather flippant, given that people are dying in large numbers.

[CountDeMoney]

"Ebolapalooza?"  That's rather flippant, given that people are dying in large numbers.

Would you feel better if they were pushed out of windows?

[jimmy olsen]

One day update by the WHO says that from thw 5th to the 6th more than 300 cases and nearly 200 deaths were recorded!

It is obviously unstoppable now. Liberia and Sierra Leone will probably lose hundreds of thousands of people.

[jimmy olsen]

Anyways, the cases have doubled from what they were 22 days ago, which were double what they were 30 days before that, which were double what they were 35 days before that. Periodic doubling would indicate exponential growth, but the rate of doubling is itself increasing..

I will note that at the rate of 300+ cases a day as seen on the sixth,  this period of doubling will be 13 days!