Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Razgovory]

God I hope CdM is right and the Ukrainians can send the Russians packing.

[Phillip V]

Putin tells Obama that not only can Russia send its troops to Crimea, but to all of predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/01/crimean-putin-russia-ukraine/5922731/

Stunned by Russia's swift move into the autonomous province of Crimea and the Russian parliament's endorsement of that brazen action, the United States called on Moscow to withdraw its forces from the region and "refrain from any interference elsewhere in Ukraine."

Speaking by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time since this crisis escalated, President Obama expressed concern over "Russia's clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity," according to a White House statement.

"President Obama made clear that Russia's continued violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would negatively impact Russia's standing in the international community," the statement said.

However, Putin remained defiant, telling Obama that not only can Russia send its troops to Crimea, but to all of predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine due to "the existence of real threats" to Russian citizens in Ukrainian territory.

[11B4V]

However, Putin remained defiant, telling Obama that not only can Russia send its troops to Crimea, but to all of predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine due to "the existence of real threats" to Russian citizens in Ukrainian territory.

, but of course

[alfred russel]

Classic Sudetenland.  There is an appeal to take the territory on the basis of your country's ethnicity living there, and needing your protection.  On the other side, there is a similar level of total incompetence at the top on the side of Western leaders, coupled with lack of desire to fight someone else's war.

The Hitler comparisons aren't very good. This is a quasi puppet state in the Russian sphere of influence attempting to break free alongside public demonstrations. Much better comparisons are the Soviet crackdowns in Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary.

I think the verdict of history is that the correct decision was not to intervene in those instances during the cold war.

[OttoVonBismarck]

We had no move in those uprisings but we have real moves in regard to the Ukraine. For one we have a treat we signed with Russia promising to respect Ukrainian sovereignty, we had also helped broker a deal in Ukraine that fell apart within 24 hours. We have a government, legally recognized by the world, in Kiev asking for help. We have quite a range of options all the way up to deploying a "security force" into the Ukraine. I don't believe we would do that, but I believe that's an option that is possible without leading to outright war with Russia.

We also have considerable economic leverage we could use against Russia--we didn't in the 1950s, and it's questionable why we aren't using it already or making it known we will use it.

[alfred russel]

We had no move in those uprisings but we have real moves in regard to the Ukraine. For one we have a treat we signed with Russia promising to respect Ukrainian sovereignty, we had also helped broker a deal in Ukraine that fell apart within 24 hours. We have a government, legally recognized by the world, in Kiev asking for help. We have quite a range of options all the way up to deploying a "security force" into the Ukraine. I don't believe we would do that, but I believe that's an option that is possible without leading to outright war with Russia.

We also have considerable economic leverage we could use against Russia--we didn't in the 1950s, and it's questionable why we aren't using it already or making it known we will use it.

I'm not sure the Soviets lived up to all their agreements about the post war world either (not that we expected better from Stalin).

I think it is important to stand up to Russia here. Maybe deploying troops to the Baltics to make clear that is a true red line. Sanctions are an option, but especially if targeted in the right way (I think the Georgian dude is right that revoking travel visas would be effective). But military options are off the table, and without that it is hard to envision a satisfactory resolution without Russia backing down.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Any military involvement would be the end-of-the-line style escalation. I would do it only to guarantee the rest of Ukraine's sovereignty from Russia, and wouldn't allow it to be involved in say, a direct fight for Crimea. If Russia can roll into a country to protect people so can the United States, but it would be a tight rope situation. I don't see it as in the range of options Obama is considering but I do think it's a potential move that could be done without crossing the "line" into the kind of provocative aggression that would force Putin's hand into the end of days path of direct conflict with us and nuclear exchanges.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The thing about Putin is he lives off of respect and glamour to a much greater degree than any other leader we have problems with. His country is also essentially on normalized relations with the entire West. Unlike the Ayatollahs, Assad, or the Kim dynasty that is so sanctioned any further sanctions are just marginal annoyances Putin is genuinely vulnerable to sanctions in a big way. Hitting a few hundred top political oligarchs in Russia with restrictive travel sanctions, potentially even frozen assets or etc would immediately cost him serious support. Further, any threat to that $15bn positive trade balance Russia has with the U.S. could seriously hurt Putin's standing at home. Russia is still fairly poor but I wouldn't call it true third world, which means Russians have a lot more to lose. They also theoretically live in a country where if a good 60% of them got really pissed at Putin his position would probably become untenable. Putin is a not-quite-dictator whose reins of domestic power could be made perilous with sanctions, and that is what I'd like to see happen.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

For one we have a treat we signed with Russia promising to respect Ukrainian sovereignty

My understanding is that the Budapest Memorandum is not a treaty, but rather a gentleman's agreement between the US, UK, and Russia.  Most importantly, the Senate never ratified anything associated with the memorandum.  Plus, there is an argument to be made that the UK and Russia already violated the memorandum months ago during the EU-Russia assistance pact battle

[CountDeMoney]

Economic action like boycotting the G8 and booting them out while they're at it, funneling emergency funds to Kiev from the IMF and other diverse financial weaponry isn't as immediate or as satisfying as sending carrier battle groups through the Bosporus or watching the 82nd AB parachute into tripwire deployments along the Dnieper, but it'll send the right message.

[Ed Anger]

Plus, I'm too close to Wright Patterson and might get my eyebrows singed off.

[CountDeMoney]

Do us a favor and let us know when you hear the cart-starts pop before you head to the bunker, 'k?

[LaCroix]

but otto. at the end of the day the US doesn't really have any real interest in the Ukraine. there are reasons for why the US wouldn't want it to fall to Russia, but it's not like we're talking about Japan or Canada. they aren't in our sphere or the west's sphere. they're firmly within russia's sphere. so, that we don't intervene militarily and put a stop to Russia doesn't mean it's the collapse of US foreign policy--that's so melodramatic

[Grey Fox]

but otto. at the end of the day the US doesn't really have any real interest in the Ukraine. there are reasons for why the US wouldn't want it to fall to Russia, but it's not like we're talking about Japan or Canada. they aren't in our sphere or the west's sphere. they're firmly within russia's sphere. so, that we don't intervene militarily and put a stop to Russia doesn't mean it's the collapse of US foreign policy--that's so melodramatic

But 2 of Ukraine's (close)neighbor are part of NATO. It's his sphere, it's slowly becoming our sphere.

[Admiral Yi]

they're firmly within russia's sphere.

What does this even mean?