Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Sheilbh]

The same reasons. It would be impossible to imagine that Europe could assimilate 70 million people with no recent history of democracy and 50 years of Communism. States that were prone to oddball authoritarian regimes or showed no sign of moving towards democracy like Romania and Slovakia. Not only that but many of them were wracked with the same sort of ethnic divisions that were bloodily tearing Yugoslavia apart. Some of them weren't even Western Christian and the Bulgarians use Cyrillic.

I'm not a whig in general, but I am, for the most part, about Europe. The basis of the EU is getting over history.

Anyway he Russians have friends (or fifth columnists) in the EU too

Germany, Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus.

The promised EU funds won't do much but add to the debt and will concentrate whatever small economic growth in the west, while the industry in the east-kept alive by ties with Russia-will leave the East impoverished.   If you think this is going to have a happy ending you haven't been paying attention.

Happier than Putinist satellite. Also the point is it's in Europe's interest to support Ukraine through a debt crisis, especially if they're working towards the acquis and overall accession. If Ukraine is working towards overall accession there will be significant economic growth as there's been in every other country that's joined or started working towards joining the EU.

[Queequeg]

The basis of the EU is getting over history.

Yeah, I read Postwar too.

I think in the long-term you may be right, but over the short and medium we're going to have to find a way to develop a non zero-sum relationship with  the Russians over Ukraine.  There's really no way of getting around the fact that Russia has interests in Ukraine, and unlike the EU Russia is able and willing to dedicate a large amount of resources to keeping Ukraine in it's sphere of influence. 

[Ed Anger]

Form the CoDominium and keep the lesser peoples of the world down.

[Neil]

I agree with that and have said as much previously.  But again, I don't think there's even a clear boundary between Central Europe and East. 
Why is St. Petersburg, a city build with Amsterdam in mind, less "European" than Kiev, a city with a Turkic name that was the heart of Orthodox Christianity and a Byzantinist civilization for centuries? 

I think it's important to remind you that Orthodox Christianity is distinctly un-European.

How about stopping Napoleon and the Nazis?  Does that fall under "meddlesome" or "hostile"?   

Yes to both.  Napoleon was a tyrant, but he was a European tyrant.  And as for the Nazis, the Russian were so much worse.

[Razgovory]

The basis of the EU is getting over history.

Yeah, I read Postwar too.

I think in the long-term you may be right, but over the short and medium we're going to have to find a way to develop a non zero-sum relationship with  the Russians over Ukraine.  There's really no way of getting around the fact that Russia has interests in Ukraine, and unlike the EU Russia is able and willing to dedicate a large amount of resources to keeping Ukraine in it's sphere of influence.

I thought the point of the EU was a last ditch effort for Europe to be relevant.

[Grinning_Colossus]

A massive Marshal Plan-style bailout, with good-governance conditionalities, in the early 90s might have kept enough of the Perestroika-era elites in power to start integrating Russia into the West... but if the political will had existed for that, the West Germans would have given Gorby the loans he needed to keep the USSR from collapsing in the first place.

[Queequeg]

A massive Marshal Plan-style bailout, with good-governance conditionalities, in the early 90s might have kept enough of the Perestroika-era elites in power to start integrating Russia into the West... but if the political will had existed for that, the West Germans would have given Gorby the loans he needed to keep the USSR from collapsing in the first place.

I wonder sometimes if we'd all been better off if the CIS had somehow become a coherent successor to the USSR minus the Baltics and maybe two or three Caucasian republics.  Central Asia is an awful, hideous mess.

[Neil]

I don't think so.  Sure, it's a mess, but it's a mess that can be used against Russia.  The goal is to break Russia down.

[Queequeg]

Wouldn't running an empire in Central Asia wear Russia down?

[Grinning_Colossus]

A massive Marshal Plan-style bailout, with good-governance conditionalities, in the early 90s might have kept enough of the Perestroika-era elites in power to start integrating Russia into the West... but if the political will had existed for that, the West Germans would have given Gorby the loans he needed to keep the USSR from collapsing in the first place.

I wonder sometimes if we'd all been better off if the CIS had somehow become a coherent successor to the USSR minus the Baltics and maybe two or three Caucasian republics.  Central Asia is an awful, hideous mess.

That's exactly what most of the republics voted for. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Sovereign_States

[Queequeg]

 
I feel weird about not knowing that.

[Syt]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26364891

Ukraine: Gunmen seize Crimea government buildings

Ukraine's security forces have been put on alert after government buildings in the Russian-majority Crimea region were seized by armed men.

The Russian flag had been raised over both buildings in the capital, Simferopol.

The local government has said it is negotiating with the gunmen.

The seizure of the buildings comes a day after confrontations between pro-Russian separatists and supporters of Ukraine's new leaders.

The incident is another illustration of tensions in the region, the BBC's Mark Lowen reports from Crimea.

On Wednesday Simferopol saw clashes erupt between Ukrainians who support the change of government and pro-Russians.

Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said the area in Simferopol had been cordoned off by police to prevent "bloodshed" and said the seizure of the buildings was the work of "provocateurs".

"Measures have been taken to counter extremist actions and not allow the situation to escalate into an armed confrontation in the centre of the city," he said in a statement on his Facebook page.

The men have not yet made any demands or issued any statements but did put up a sign saying "Crimea is Russia.".

AP reported that they threw a flash grenade in response to a journalist's questions.

[Syt]

http://www.channel4.com/news/ukraine-crimea-russia-governement-headquarters-armed-men

Russia's defence ministry said on Thursday thyat fighter jets along its western border had been placed on "combat alert".

"Constant air patrols are being carried out by fighter jets in the border regions," Russian news agency Interfax quoted a ministry statement as saying.

"From the moment they received the signal to be on high alert, the air force in the western military region left for the... air bases."

[Tamas]

My parents have gas heating of course, but they have also kept the old one using firewood or coal. They have been burning away the firewood reserves on the account of it being cheaper, I think that was a mistake. Almost all of the country's gas is coming from Russia through Ukraine, and I was reading that Hungary maybe has two weeks worth of reserves.

I am seriously starting to worry. Massive military exercise by the Russian forces near the border, pro-Russian armed guys controlling the Crimean parliament (they threw a flash grenade on a journalist, they are not just some random civilians), Ukraine and the West flexing their muscles regarding the Crimea. (although the latter is probably good).

[Syt]

From BBC:

Also on Thursday, former President Viktor Yanukovych issued his first statement since being voted out of office by MPs last week, telling Russian news agencies he had been "compelled to ask the Russian Federation to ensure my personal security from the actions of extremists" and that he still considered himself the legitimate president of Ukraine.