Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Barrister]

Putin has a touch choice to make here.

He could easily pull a South Ossetia/Abkhazia if he wanted to in Crimea.  The West won't stop him.  So far there haven't been the kind of open revolts in some of the eastern cities, so it might be tougher to do there (perhaps because there's no large Russian military base in the region?).

But to do so means he loses all influence in the rest of Ukraine.

If he thinks Russian influence can be maintained in the entire country, he needs to use a light touch.

[Sheilbh]

And the West should be very strong on this. There's a chance to drive Russia out of Europe which can't be missed.

[Queequeg]

And the West should be very strong on this. There's a chance to drive Russia out of Europe which can't be missed.

You know how many people have said that in the last 500 years?

[Sheilbh]

You know how many people have said that in the last 500 years?

Exactly. That's how worthwhile it would be!

[Barrister]

And the West should be very strong on this. There's a chance to drive Russia out of Europe which can't be missed.

I think the West should very much resist making this a "West vs Russia" kind of battle, and emphasize that we support democratic governance (and not killing protestors) everywhere.

I'd much rather see a repeat of Euromaidan in Moscow's Red Square in a year or two...

[Queequeg]

I'm willing to bet 10,000 dollars that, in ten years, there will be some level of Russian influence in Ukraine and more generally across Europe. 

[Sheilbh]

I think the West should very much resist making this a "West vs Russia" kind of battle, and emphasize that we support democratic governance (and not killing protestors) everywhere.

Well obviously and we should even offer a decent way out. Step back from W's lunacy, so no Ukraine in NATO - a sort of Southern Finland. But the prize isn't supporting democratic governance

I'd much rather see a repeat of Euromaidan in Moscow's Red Square in a year or two...

I'd rather it in Minsk and Russia preoccupied in Asia.

[Queequeg]

And the West should be very strong on this. There's a chance to drive Russia out of Europe which can't be missed.

I think the West should very much resist making this a "West vs Russia" kind of battle, and emphasize that we support democratic governance (and not killing protestors) everywhere.

I'd much rather see a repeat of Euromaidan in Moscow's Red Square in a year or two...

Putin isn't going to be there forever, and it seems extremely unlikely to me that the country will break up.  I think there's probably going to be an eventual slide in to something like Liberalism.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm willing to bet 10,000 dollars that, in ten years, there will be some level of Russian influence in Ukraine and more generally across Europe.

[Sheilbh]

Putin isn't going to be there forever, and it seems extremely unlikely to me that the country will break up.  I think there's probably going to be an eventual slide in to something like Liberalism.

You know how many people have said that in the last 500 years?

[Queequeg]

Putin isn't going to be there forever, and it seems extremely unlikely to me that the country will break up.  I think there's probably going to be an eventual slide in to something like Liberalism.

You know how many people have said that in the last 500 years?

Russia today has changed quite a bit.  There's a functional market economy, and government income is now dependent more on taxation than petrochemicals.  I didn't say it was going to be Switzerland or France, but once Putin leaves there will finally be an established, native middle class in Moscow and Petersburg with an interest in having a relatively stable, effective government.  Russia hasn't had that since the Republic of Novgorod fell.

[Barrister]

I'm willing to bet 10,000 dollars that, in ten years, there will be some level of Russian influence in Ukraine and more generally across Europe.

"some level of Russian influence" could mean anything.  Be specific.

I would say that the high level mark of Russian influence in Europe was in 1947, and has been decreasing, and will continue to decrease for awhile to come.

Russian demographics continue to be abysmal.

[Queequeg]

Russia's fertility rate has bounced back, there's been a substantial overhaul of tax and corporate legislation, the petrochemical industry continues to do pretty well, and Russia's going to have nothing but benefits from global warming.  A lot of the current anti-homosexual bullshit is equivalent to what China is doing with the Senkakus; shiny objects to distract the local middle class from endemic corruption.

[derspiess]

Putin has a touch choice to make here.

He could easily pull a South Ossetia/Abkhazia if he wanted to in Crimea.  The West won't stop him.  So far there haven't been the kind of open revolts in some of the eastern cities, so it might be tougher to do there (perhaps because there's no large Russian military base in the region?).

But to do so means he loses all influence in the rest of Ukraine.

If he thinks Russian influence can be maintained in the entire country, he needs to use a light touch.

I say give him Crimea and then tell him any further meddling in Ukraine would be a red line of sorts.

[Queequeg]

Russian demographics continue to be abysmal.

Urban myth.  They were never worse than the Eastern European average and have improved substantially since then.