Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Malthus]

You're overstating the case.  A large part of the agenda of the demonstrations was the desire to integrate into the West, with all the respect for rule of law, democracy, and fair markets that that entails.

I think that's overstating the case

Protesting for something doesn't necessarily mean you'll support all the necessary steps, all through a wrenching change. They may back integration into the EU. But will there be support for the rule of law, democracy (remember the free and fair election just a few years ago, the revolution doesn't) and all the rest? That's a different agenda and, I imagine, one with a smaller base.

Hopefully it'll work though and the West should help and try to convince Putin to back off.

What the people of Ukraine voted for was a democratic leader. What they got, was a guy who attempted to change the constitution to make himself a dictator. It is not accurate to claim the rebels were not respecting "free and fair elections" - because the incumbent disrespected them first, by making his office into something other than what they voted for.

This is a perennial problem with emerging democracies, the notion of 'winner take all' - that you vote someone into power and he takes it as a mandate to make himself a tyrant.

[Malthus]

[ A large part of the agenda of the demonstrations was the desire to integrate into the West, with all the respect for rule of law, democracy, and fair markets that that entails.

For some of them, but not the rightists who seem to have been a significant contributor to the demonstrations.

From what I've heard from people on the spot in Kiev, the actual contribution of the extreme right was not that significant and did not set the "tone".

The situation could certainly go wrong, and if it did, it would hardly be the only example of a popular uprising hijacked by unpleasant extremists. But my understanding, from those who ought to know, was that this was a genuinely popular pro-Western uprising - with young people from all backgrounds eagerly joining.

For example, no-one has more legitimately to fear from right-wing Ukrainian nationalists than the surviving Ukrainian Jews. But despite the warnings from rabbis and other elders to stay out of it, young Jews flocked to join the demonstrations - admittedly holding their noses when near the ultra-right party demostraters.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/in-ukraine-protests-young-jews-are-marching-with-ultranationalists/

[Sheilbh]

The perceived threat is different this time - a trip backwards to Russian domination, hence symbolically linked to the sufferings of ethnic Ukranians under (Russian) communism - and so, Lenin. The Orange Revolution was more "about" perceived election fraud, and it was bloodless.

But wasn't 2004 a trip from Russian domination? The Orange Revolution was as much a rejection of Kuchma (and Yanukovych because he was Kuchma's candidate) and the Russian interests they backed as it was about election fraud. I think the context also suggests an attempt to escape Russia's sphere - Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and, though a lot earlier, Serbia.

What the people of Ukraine voted for was a democratic leader. What they got, was a guy who attempted to change the constitution to make himself a dictator. It is not accurate to claim the rebels were not respecting "free and fair elections" - because the incumbent disrespected them first, by making his office into something other than what they voted for.

I'm not sure that's fair. The constitutional changes were by the Supreme Court over-ruling revolutionary changes to the constitution in 2004. From what I've read there's no suggestion that was really Yanukovych's doing, though he was the beneficiary, and the situation would've been the same with Tymoshenko.

What they got though was the President's son's companies winning 50% of state contracts last year (apparently) and an economic crisis that slightly forced Yanuovych's hand and that Putin took advantage of.

The revolution's still a good thing and the West should really try and push the advantage. But I do actually think that if you strip out those opinions the Russians kind of have a point, not that that should matter.

[Sheilbh]

The situation could certainly go wrong, and if it did, it would hardly be the only example of a popular uprising hijacked by unpleasant extremists. But my understanding, from those who ought to know, was that this was a genuinely popular pro-Western uprising - with young people from all backgrounds eagerly joining.

Yeah. I was thinking how easily transferable many of the tropes of Middle Eastern revolutions are. Salafists = neo-Nazis, titushki = baltagiya, Putin = Putin

For example, no-one has more legitimately to fear from right-wing Ukrainian nationalists than the surviving Ukrainian Jews. But despite the warnings from rabbis and other elders to stay out of it, young Jews flocked to join the demonstrations - admittedly holding their noses when near the ultra-right party demostraters.

This was happening as the whole Dieudonne/quenelle issue was kicking off and it did make me think whether sadly, unbelievably, Jewish life is now safer in Ukraine than France?

[derspiess]

[ A large part of the agenda of the demonstrations was the desire to integrate into the West, with all the respect for rule of law, democracy, and fair markets that that entails.

For some of them, but not the rightists who seem to have been a significant contributor to the demonstrations.

Rightists or far right?

[Admiral Yi]

Farists

[alfred russel]

What the people of Ukraine voted for was a democratic leader. What they got, was a guy who attempted to change the constitution to make himself a dictator. It is not accurate to claim the rebels were not respecting "free and fair elections" - because the incumbent disrespected them first, by making his office into something other than what they voted for.

This is a perennial problem with emerging democracies, the notion of 'winner take all' - that you vote someone into power and he takes it as a mandate to make himself a tyrant.

Only it isn't completely clear that is what he was doing. The elections in 2015 weren't canceled. From what I've read, the protests, at least until recently, did not have universal support--public opinion was more like 50-50 split along similar lines as the election. The protestors by and large were the people that voted against him in the first place--not his voters that felt betrayed.

I'm not arguing that he was Mr. Nice Guy and Democracy--obviously not.

[alfred russel]

According to December 2013 polls (by three different pollsters) between 45% and 50% of Ukrainians supported Euromaidan, while between 42% and 50% opposed it. The biggest support for the protest can be found in Kiev (about 75%) and western Ukraine (more than 80%). Among Euromaidan protesters, 55% are from the west of the country, with 24% from central Ukraine and 21% from the east.

In a poll taken on 7–8 December, 73% of protesters had committed to continue protesting in Kiev as long as needed until their demands are fulfilled. This number has increased to 82% as of 3 February 2014. Polls also show that the nation is divided in age: while majority of young people are pro-EU, older generations (50 and above) more often prefer the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia. More than 41% of protesters are ready to take part in the seizure of administrative buildings as of February, compared to 13 and 19 percent during polls on 10 and 20 December 2013. At the same time, more than 50 percent are ready to take part in the creation of independent military units, compared to 15 and 21 percent during the past studies, respectively.

According to a January poll, 45% of Ukrainians supported the protests, and 48% of Ukrainians disapproved of Euromaidan.

From wikipedia on public opinion and Euro Maiden.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaiden#Public_opinion_about_Euromaidan

[CountDeMoney]

I was just reading about Robert(o) Michels... 

He also founded the Michaels Arts and crafts chain.

America's anarcho-syndicalist plastic flowers and macrame depot.

HEY NOW 

[garbon]

I was just reading about Robert(o) Michels... 

He also founded the Michaels Arts and crafts chain.

America's anarcho-syndicalist plastic flowers and macrame depot.

HEY NOW 

Don't dream it's over

[derspiess]

Seems like anything could happen at this point, given the wacky twists & turns so far.  But the way I'm reading things, the center of the crisis seems to have shifted towards the Crimea (do we still say *the*, or is it just Crimea?).  Anyway, the ethnic Russian majority in the Crimea seems to be fearing and preparing for an "invasion" by Ukrainians and Russia is making loud noises about getting directly involved should that come to pass. 

The Crimea is already an "autonomous Republic" and it seems like they could linger as a de facto if not de jure independent country.  I'd advise Ukraine to simply spin it off and let it be independent or join up with Russia if it so desires.  Fewer Russians/Russophiles inside your borders should make things more stable in the long run and should more than offset whatever Ukraine loses.

[MadImmortalMan]

Crimea is properly a client state of Pontus. All Hail Mithridates VI!

[Ed Anger]

Crimea is properly a client state of Pontus. All Hail Mithridates VI!

Time for Sulla and Lucullus to visit.

[Queequeg]

Crimea is properly a client state of Pontus. All Hail Mithridates VI!

Wrong, lands belong to the Empire of Trebizond. 

[jimmy olsen]

The Crimea belongs to Italy as the legitimate successor of Genoa!