Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Sheilbh]

My dismissal of Europe as a concept should not be read as a dislike of western Europe, or it's accomplishments or future, or a dislike of the EU as a project.  I just think Europe is grows and contracts given the currently trending ethnic prejudices, and that there's no clear historical boundary between East and West.

The last clear boundary between East and West was the Cold War. It's why the re-emergence of a independently defined Central Europe is, to my mind, one of the great achievements of the EU.

[Queequeg]

My dismissal of Europe as a concept should not be read as a dislike of western Europe, or it's accomplishments or future, or a dislike of the EU as a project.  I just think Europe is grows and contracts given the currently trending ethnic prejudices, and that there's no clear historical boundary between East and West.

The last clear boundary between East and West was the Cold War. It's why the re-emergence of a independently defined Central Europe is, to my mind, one of the great achievements of the EU. 

I agree with that and have said as much previously.  But again, I don't think there's even a clear boundary between Central Europe and East. 
Why is St. Petersburg, a city build with Amsterdam in mind, less "European" than Kiev, a city with a Turkic name that was the heart of Orthodox Christianity and a Byzantinist civilization for centuries? 

There are two arguments, the idealist one is that Europe exists now. As long as it's existed Russia's been hostile at worst and meddlesome at best. Increasing the cost for Europe and allies like the US. The consequences for Russia's friends - Belarus, Serbia, Ukraine, Moldavia haven't been great either.

How about stopping Napoleon and the Nazis?  Does that fall under "meddlesome" or "hostile"? 

I don't think Europe has the resources, ability or willpower to fully integrate all of Ukraine in to Europe and away from Russia.  It's just never going to happen as long as there's a stable government in Moscow.  Europe will stop caring long enough for another Yanukovich figure to rise up, and then this whole sad drama will be repeated again. 

[Tamas]

Putin isn't going to be there forever, and it seems extremely unlikely to me that the country will break up.  I think there's probably going to be an eventual slide in to something like Liberalism.

You know how many people have said that in the last 500 years?

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

How important is access to the Black Sea through the Crimea to the economy of the Ukraine?

Dunno, but if they lost it they'd still have Odessa.

We could always give them Midland to compensate.

[Ed Anger]

How important is access to the Black Sea through the Crimea to the economy of the Ukraine?

Dunno, but if they lost it they'd still have Odessa.

We could always give them Midland to compensate.

I saw what you did there

[Sheilbh]

I agree with that and have said as much previously.  But again, I don't think there's even a clear boundary between Central Europe and East. 

The Visegrad Group. Though sadly the Slovaks dropped out when they split.
http://www.visegradgroup.eu/

How about stopping Napoleon and the Nazis?  Does that fall under "meddlesome" or "hostile"? 

No. But at neither of those points did the 'Europe' we were talking about exist - as you pointed out

I don't think Europe has the resources, ability or willpower to fully integrate all of Ukraine in to Europe and away from Russia.  It's just never going to happen as long as there's a stable government in Moscow.  Europe will stop caring long enough for another Yanukovich figure to rise up, and then this whole sad drama will be repeated again.

Given time. Europe managed to integrate 10 new member states at once - 20% more population and 10% more GDP. Ukraine's just the equivalent of Poland and Hungary.

It'll take time and a lot of investment and help but it's achievable, look at the pace Serbia's making on the acquis. Also I think Europe's aware that they helped precipitate this. Europe didn't offer any immediate aid for Ukraine's economy - which I think is going through a debt crisis. Putin did on the condition Yanukovych pull out of the Eastern Partnership deal (I'd be happy if the EU dropped the Caucus states from the Eastern Partnership to please the Russians).

But I agree if Europe's not willing to make the sort of commitment that she did to the EU-10, has to the Western Balkans, or to Bulgaria and Romania then there's no point. But I've not seen any evidence of qualms about Ukraine joining.

Edit:

Why is St. Petersburg, a city build with Amsterdam in mind, less "European" than Kiev, a city with a Turkic name that was the heart of Orthodox Christianity and a Byzantinist civilization for centuries? 

I'm really sorry, but I don't personally care about this side of things or whether it maps ethnically, culturally, linguistically or historically

[Queequeg]

I really shouldn't have to explain how dramatically a country can change with the wrong or right sort of government, and that it's not some Sonderweg bullshit about unique, inherited, unchangeable national character to a Hungarian.  You guys went from Mordvins to Scythians to Eastern France within three centuries. 

[Tonitrus]

I wonder if we missed a once-in-a-lifetime chance to draw Russia into the Euro/NATO-sphere shortly after the breakup of the USSR...instead, being all, "well now you're just too damn poor and weak", or Cold War-distrustful and such.

[Queequeg]

I wonder if we missed a once-in-a-lifetime chance to draw Russia into the Euro/NATO-sphere shortly after the breakup of the USSR...instead, being all, "well now you're just too damn poor and weak", or Cold War-distrustful and such.

Nah.  The pathologies exist on both sides, and are probably a lot stronger in Russia.  Neither Russia nor America have that many explicit areas of geostrategic conflict, but Russia goes out of it's way to fuck our shit up because fucking America's shit up is what Russians do. 

[Queequeg]

The Visegrad Group. Though sadly the Slovaks dropped out when they split.

Well as far as a legal definition of it by treaty that makes sense, but again, I don't know why Bialystock naturally Central European but Vilnius or even Smolensk isn't.  I really think you're dramatically overstating how un-European Russian history is.  For God's sake St. Basil's was built by Italians, Germans and Englishmen. 

No. But at neither of those points did the 'Europe' we were talking about exist - as you pointed out

Okay.  Russia-or really the USSR-was always hostile to what would become the EU.  I don't think Russia was inherently hostile to the EU before Putin started freaking out about the Orange Revolution, though. 

Given time. Europe managed to integrate 10 new member states at once - 20% more population and 10% more GDP. Ukraine's just the equivalent of Poland and Hungary.

Not really.

Poland has a long-standing historical connection with the rest of Europe, had people old enough to remember how capitalism worked, and had a massive emigre population that brought skills and education back to the country.  It's a brilliant success.
Hungary didn't have much of that.  It's sliding back in to something resembling Putinism as is.  Imagine if Russia was throwing billions upon billions at Hungary and half of Hungary spoke Russian, had the exact same Orthodox Russian-Muscovy Patriarch faith, and was ethnically indistinguishable? 

I'm really sorry, but I don't personally care about this side of things or whether it maps ethnically, culturally, linguistically or historically

Then what did Europe mean before 1945?

[derspiess]

I wonder if we missed a once-in-a-lifetime chance to draw Russia into the Euro/NATO-sphere shortly after the breakup of the USSR...instead, being all, "well now you're just too damn poor and weak", or Cold War-distrustful and such.

Ugh, no.  Russia would've been a cancer inside of NATO.  Or best case, NATO would've been severely diluted to the point of being an alliance in name only and we'd have to re-create an Atlantic alliance under a different name.

[Razgovory]

Besides, if they were in NATO they'd see the big board.

[derspiess]

Besides, if they were in NATO they'd see the big board.

We'd have to do a fake one for them.

[Sheilbh]

I really think you're dramatically overstating how un-European Russian history is.  For God's sake St. Basil's was built by Italians, Germans and Englishmen. 

I'm not saying Russian history's un-European. My point isn't historical.

Okay.  Russia-or really the USSR-was always hostile to what would become the EU.  I don't think Russia was inherently hostile to the EU before Putin started freaking out about the Orange Revolution, though. 

Russia was hostile to EU and NATO expansion long before 2005. The Orange Revolution and W did increase that a lot though.

Poland has a long-standing historical connection with the rest of Europe, had people old enough to remember how capitalism worked, and had a massive emigre population that brought skills and education back to the country.  It's a brilliant success.

None of that applies to Ukraine? Also isn't the great achievement of the EU that Poland doesn't have to care about their long-standing history?

Aside from that what I meant was that Ukraine's got roughly the same population of Poland + Hungary.

It'll be very difficult but the EU has managed to very successfully expand in ways that I think 20 years ago people would have thought impossible for precisely the sort of reasons you're giving now.

[Queequeg]

The same reasons?  A thousand years of ethnic and religious kinship between Hungary, Poland and Russia?  You brought vehemently Russophobic peoples in to the fold.  This isn't the same. 

The promised EU funds won't do much but add to the debt and will concentrate whatever small economic growth in the west, while the industrial decline in the east- most of it is currently kept alive by ties with Russia-will leave the East impoverished.   If you think this is going to have a happy ending you haven't been paying attention.