Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Sheilbh]

Apparently there's been some sort of deal. Opposition figures said it's 'quite' likely that the violence will end. Can't see anyone with details yet though.

[DGuller]

No deal.  It's a bit alarming how the chatter about Ukraine splitting up has picked up recently.  I'm sure Russia poured oil on the fire intentionally by expressing a disapproval of the split, which only added credibility to such a solution.  It really does begin to sound like less of a protest, and more of an uprising.

[derspiess]

A split seems like the only sensible solution.  Why would Russia be against it?  It could absorb the Eastern part back into Mother Russia.  Seems like the Western Ukes will never accept being a Russian client state, so getting the Eastern part is about as well as Russia could do.

[Sheilbh]

Why would they accept an EU client state there if they could just keep an unstable semi-dependent mess?

[DGuller]

A split seems like the only sensible solution.  Why would Russia be against it?  It could absorb the Eastern part back into Mother Russia.  Seems like the Western Ukes will never accept being a Russian client state, so getting the Eastern part is about as well as Russia could do.

I'm sure Russia is secretly for it, as long as it's done relatively peacefully, and not by bring a full-scale war to its doorstep.  Putin wants to rebuild USSR, and divide and conquer works well.  Coming out publicly against it is just a piece of Byzantine politics from a Byzantine state.

[derspiess]

Why would they accept an EU client state there if they could just keep an unstable semi-dependent mess?

Because then they get either a stable, happy Russian client state, or a direct acquisition, South Ossetia-style.  Why would they want an unstable mess on their border?

[Razgovory]

EU's Barroso threatens sanctions against Ukraine if state violence increases. Russia criticizes EU and says instead of sanctions the Ukraine needs help.

If the situation in Ukraine escalates and the government calls for help from the big brother in the East which will be provided in the form of soldiers and tanks, then I predict the EU will be shocked, indignated, but nothing else will happen.

I can't see Yanukovych calling for the Russian Army for help.  His entire presidency has been about trying to dance inbetween both the EU and Russia.  Calling for the Russians would mean a total loss of independence for him.

He may not have a choice.  If things get really bad, the Russians might come in anyway.

That's usually called an invasion though.

Putin got away with it in Georgia to be sure, but not as sure things would go the same way in Ukraine.

If civil war broke out, it's possible.  There would be a lot of pressure to protect the ethnic Russian populace.

[DGuller]

One random clip:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vi_B637FCDY#t=480.  You have to respect the restraint from both sides, though I have a feeling that this is going to change.

[Josquius]

I don't really see the Russians moving into the Ukraine.
Even in Georgia they had to wait for the Georgians to make the first move and attack one of their break away regions. And Georgia...is a far more insignificant and out of the way state.

[DGuller]

I don't really see the Russians moving into the Ukraine.
Even in Georgia they had to wait for the Georgians to make the first move and attack one of their break away regions. And Georgia...is a far more insignificant and out of the way state.

Maybe, but it's been five years since that war, and Putin has gotten more and more emboldened, while US, well, hasn't.  The standard for the pretext required for intervention may not be as high now.

[Razgovory]

One random clip:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vi_B637FCDY#t=480.  You have to respect the restraint from both sides, though I have a feeling that this is going to change.

Man their riot police really suck.

[Queequeg]

I very, very seriously doubt Russian troops will cross in to the Ukraine unless there's some kind of secession or violence against "ethnic Russians", which is a fucking retarded distinction in this case.

[Razgovory]

I very, very seriously doubt Russian troops will cross in to the Ukraine unless there's some kind of secession or violence against "ethnic Russians", which is a fucking retarded distinction in this case.

Fucking retarded distinctions like that have caused all sorts of trouble in the past.

[Queequeg]

I don't see radical Ukrainian nationalists or radical Russian nationalists taking power in Ukraine any time within the foreseeable time horizon. 

[Barrister]

I very, very seriously doubt Russian troops will cross in to the Ukraine unless there's some kind of secession or violence against "ethnic Russians", which is a fucking retarded distinction in this case.