Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Sheilbh]

How many regimes can Russia afford to prop up at once?

[derspiess]

How many regimes can Russia the CIA afford to prop up destabilize at once?

FIXED

[The Brain]

If the situation in Ukraine escalates and the government calls for help from the big brother in the East which will be provided in the form of soldiers and tanks, then I predict the EU will be shocked, indignated, but nothing else will happen.

I don't think Europe has much to fear from a resurgent once-defeated great power, especially one that is pre-occupied with hosting the Olympics.

Is this a Sweden 1912 reference? 

[Barrister]

EU's Barroso threatens sanctions against Ukraine if state violence increases. Russia criticizes EU and says instead of sanctions the Ukraine needs help.

If the situation in Ukraine escalates and the government calls for help from the big brother in the East which will be provided in the form of soldiers and tanks, then I predict the EU will be shocked, indignated, but nothing else will happen.

I can't see Yanukovych calling for the Russian Army for help.  His entire presidency has been about trying to dance inbetween both the EU and Russia.  Calling for the Russians would mean a total loss of independence for him.

[Tamas]

EU's Barroso threatens sanctions against Ukraine if state violence increases. Russia criticizes EU and says instead of sanctions the Ukraine needs help.

If the situation in Ukraine escalates and the government calls for help from the big brother in the East which will be provided in the form of soldiers and tanks, then I predict the EU will be shocked, indignated, but nothing else will happen.

I can't see Yanukovych calling for the Russian Army for help.  His entire presidency has been about trying to dance inbetween both the EU and Russia.  Calling for the Russians would mean a total loss of independence for him.

Err, the whole thing started because at the past moment he refused to sign a treaty with the EU and instead switched to Putin's warm embrace. His (and Putin's) chips are quite clearly on the table

[Barrister]

EU's Barroso threatens sanctions against Ukraine if state violence increases. Russia criticizes EU and says instead of sanctions the Ukraine needs help.

If the situation in Ukraine escalates and the government calls for help from the big brother in the East which will be provided in the form of soldiers and tanks, then I predict the EU will be shocked, indignated, but nothing else will happen.

I can't see Yanukovych calling for the Russian Army for help.  His entire presidency has been about trying to dance inbetween both the EU and Russia.  Calling for the Russians would mean a total loss of independence for him.

Err, the whole thing started because at the past moment he refused to sign a treaty with the EU and instead switched to Putin's warm embrace. His (and Putin's) chips are quite clearly on the table

This was clearly zig towards Russia (although Putin somewhat forced his hand, offering gas subsidies / threatening gas cut-offs), but he's shown zero interest in going "all in" with Putin, like Putin so desperately wants.  No customs union, for example.  He's continued to keep talking with the EU as well, though not much has come of it.

Yanukovych will take Russian money, if offered, but not Russian troops.  After all - look how well that worked out for Hungary in '56 or Czechoslovakia in '68.

[derspiess]

Yanukovych will take Russian money, if offered, but not Russian troops.  After all - look how well that worked out for Hungary in '56 or Czechoslovakia in '68.

Worked out well for the pro-Russian hardliners in both cases, actually.

[Barrister]

Yanukovych will take Russian money, if offered, but not Russian troops.  After all - look how well that worked out for Hungary in '56 or Czechoslovakia in '68.

Worked out well for the pro-Russian hardliners in both cases, actually.

But did it work out for the current government of either country?  No, it did not.  Rather, it worked out for the pro-Russian hardliners who replaced them.

[Razgovory]

EU's Barroso threatens sanctions against Ukraine if state violence increases. Russia criticizes EU and says instead of sanctions the Ukraine needs help.

If the situation in Ukraine escalates and the government calls for help from the big brother in the East which will be provided in the form of soldiers and tanks, then I predict the EU will be shocked, indignated, but nothing else will happen.

I can't see Yanukovych calling for the Russian Army for help.  His entire presidency has been about trying to dance inbetween both the EU and Russia.  Calling for the Russians would mean a total loss of independence for him.

He may not have a choice.  If things get really bad, the Russians might come in anyway.

[Iormlund]

[Barrister]

EU's Barroso threatens sanctions against Ukraine if state violence increases. Russia criticizes EU and says instead of sanctions the Ukraine needs help.

If the situation in Ukraine escalates and the government calls for help from the big brother in the East which will be provided in the form of soldiers and tanks, then I predict the EU will be shocked, indignated, but nothing else will happen.

I can't see Yanukovych calling for the Russian Army for help.  His entire presidency has been about trying to dance inbetween both the EU and Russia.  Calling for the Russians would mean a total loss of independence for him.

He may not have a choice.  If things get really bad, the Russians might come in anyway.

That's usually called an invasion though.

Putin got away with it in Georgia to be sure, but not as sure things would go the same way in Ukraine.

[Maximus]

I have a friend who was over there teaching English and seems to have gotten involved...

[derspiess]

No way Putin will invade.  He'll just continue doing sneaky KGB stuff to Ukraine.

[Liep]

This doesn't look safe.

[DGuller]

He could bite his tongue quite badly like this.