Arab Spring, Round 2

[Savonarola]

CNN is saying 300 Brothers and 43 cops killed.

The night Chicago died,
da da da da da da da da.

Government numbers are 278 protesters, but the Muslim Brotherhood insists the actual toll is much higher.  Also 21 police stations and 7 churches were attacked (according to the governments figures.)

[OttoVonBismarck]

Seven Copt Churches, attacked by Muslim Brotherhood supports.

The Wall Street Journal's main article on the clashes today had this quote from an Egyptian man on the street that 100% sums up my feelings on Egypt:

"Europeans understand democracy but Muslims don't," said Mahmoud Sayed, a 35-year-old protester. "I'm not with the Muslim brotherhood and I'm not with the government. But democracy here doesn't work and I'm here to support the innocent people being killed."

It's simple fact. Egyptians on either the secularist or Islamist side simply aren't fit for democracy. The secularists are too bound up with the military and they seem inclined to just form Mubarak style regimes, the Islamists seem to follow the mold of "win one election, rewrite the rules so we never lose another one."

[Kleves]

In response to the killings, Obama has cancelled one of the biannual US-Egyptian joint military exercises. 

[Valmy]

In response to the killings, Obama has cancelled one of the biannual US-Egyptian joint military exercises. 

This situation really is a nightmare for our foreign policy.  I cannot say it is not a bit entertaining to see us so flumoxed.

[Kleves]

This situation really is a nightmare for our foreign policy.  I cannot say it is not a bit entertaining to see us so flumoxed.

Well, Obama did outline a way forward for the Egyptians: they just need to stop killing each other; put together a functioning democracy that respects the rights of everyone, including religious minorities and women; and create a strong economy. So, you know, now they know what to do.

[Admiral Yi]

I thought Kerry's statement condemning the government's action was very one-sided.

[Valmy]

This situation really is a nightmare for our foreign policy.  I cannot say it is not a bit entertaining to see us so flumoxed.

Well, Obama did outline a way forward for the Egyptians: they just need to stop killing each other; put together a functioning democracy that respects the rights of everyone, including religious minorities and women; and create a strong economy. So, you know, now they know what to do.

They will get right on that I am sure!

[The Minsky Moment]

It's simple fact. Egyptians on either the secularist or Islamist side simply aren't fit for democracy.

I think that is too harsh a judgment.  There are securlarists who are ready for democracy but after decades of Nasserism they have no institutional or organizational capacity to make it work, and are too weak to compete against the deep structures of the Brotherhood and Mubarakites.
Perhaps a bigger problem is that the mass of the people probably don't really care and will accept any governing structure that is reasonably competent, not extremely corrupt, and doesn't bother them too much. 

[CountDeMoney]

It's simple fact. Egyptians on either the secularist or Islamist side simply aren't fit for democracy.

I think that is too harsh a judgment.  There are securlarists who are ready for democracy but after decades of Nasserism they have no institutional or organizational capacity to make it work, and are too weak to compete against the deep structures of the Brotherhood and Mubarakites.
Perhaps a bigger problem is that the mass of the people probably don't really care and will accept any governing structure that is reasonably competent, not extremely corrupt, and doesn't bother them too much.

That means they're not fit for democracy, as OvB said.  That whole side of the planet full of monkey people is a waste of effort when it comes to democracy.

Isn't there a son or nephew of Hosni lying around we can throw a uniform with massive epaulettes and a Frisbee hat on, and just do it old-style?  Like when it used to work?

[alfred russel]

This situation really is a nightmare for our foreign policy.  I cannot say it is not a bit entertaining to see us so flumoxed.

It is a great opportunity to disengage.

US policy in that area is expensive, just makes people hate us, and (arguably) doesn't have any positive effect.

[citizen k]

It is a great opportunity to disengage.

And stop the defense industry subsidies, which is essentially what our aid to Egypt is? I don't think so.

[Sheilbh]

The official body count's 700 from clearing the MB (peaceful) protest. The General in charge of the operation said 'they are rats and we will hunt them down'.

The government's appointed generals as governors to, I think, all states and declared a state of emergency and a curfew.

El Baradei's resigned. The Egyptian Social Democrat Party has joined in the trend of calling the MB terrorists.

Their visit was panned but I agree with McCain and Graham, and it looks like the Egyptian government can do anything without a threat to America aid, provided they stick to Camp David.

I was going to say this looks like 1954 but what's happened is way beyond anything Nasser ever did. There are now clashes due to massive protests after Friday prayers.

[CountDeMoney]

1954?  Try making a right turn, and go to 1979.

[Sheilbh]

As ever Goldberg's worth reading, but I also agree with him here:

What Obama Misunderstands About Egypt
By Jeffrey Goldberg Aug 15, 2013 7:10 PM GMT

This morning, President Barack Obama condemned the Egyptian military's slaughter of Muslim Brotherhood members and sympathizers, and canceled joint military exercises scheduled for next month. He said that the violence should stop and that "a process of national reconciliation should begin."

What the White House fails to understand is that the Egyptian military has very different ideas about what "reconciliation" should look like. Its goal is to destroy the Muslim Brotherhood, its traditional adversary, by killing as many Brothers as possible and by jailing or otherwise hounding the others. As for the surprise registered in the White House that Egypt's military rulers didn't listen to repeated American pleas for reconciliation and compromise: How hard is it to believe that Middle Eastern potentates promised one thing to the U.S., and then did something else entirely?

The generals in Cairo have made cold calculations. One of them is that brutality pays dividends. Yes, there may be short-term consequences to the brutal crackdown: There's still a decent chance that the U.S. will suspend aid to the Egyptian military. But the generals understood that a suspension of aid might be possible in the aftermath of the sort of crackdown we're seeing now. Which means that they have come to think that wiping out the Brotherhood is worth the risk. (They also know that there are plenty of wealthy sheiks in the Persian Gulf who viscerally oppose the Brotherhood and who would be happy to supplement Egypt's defense budget.)

It's important to note that the Egyptian military isn't yet all in -- for an example of an all-in, maximum-violence Middle East eradication campaign, please see Syria. But I don't much doubt that the bloody crackdown on the Brotherhood will continue, despite the heartfelt pleas from the White House and the near daily phone calls from Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel. And one reason is Syria: Egyptian generals can't help but notice that the world has stood idly by as Bashar al-Assad has presided over the deaths of some 100,000 Syrian citizens. In the Middle East, you can, in fact, get away with murder.

The Egyptian military will ultimately fail in its campaign to uproot the Brotherhood, because the group is quite popular in many sectors of Egyptian society and its members are expert at underground living. And the Egyptian military has given the Brotherhood something it seeks: mass martyrdom, which is the most potent motivational tool a theocratic movement has in its arsenal. Egypt is falling into ruin because the Brotherhood is anti-democratic, revanchist, anti-Christian and power-mad, and because the Egyptian military couldn't conceive of a way to marginalize it without resorting to mass violence.

This leaves the U.S. in the difficult position of having no one to support. There is, at this point, no good reason to continue funding the Egyptian armed forces. The aid obviously hasn't provided the White House with sufficient leverage, and it makes the U.S. complicit in what just happened and what will undoubtedly continue to happen. One argument for continued aid is that it encourages the military to maintain Egypt's peace treaty with Israel. But the military will do so whether or not the U.S. provides money and weapons, because it has decided that Islamist extremism, and not Israel, is Egypt's main enemy. And it will be too busy persecuting Egyptians.

I also think Marc Lynch has a point here:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/14/enough_is_enough_egypt_cairo_violence_obama_administration

[Grey Fox]

Atleast he got this part right :  because it has decided that Islamist extremism, and not Israel, is Egypt's main enemy.