Arab Spring, Round 2

[Razgovory]

When did Raz become the Defender of the Faith?  I don't think he was always like this.

Cause I don't like over throwing governments because you don't like who won the election.

[Sheilbh]

I don't know. I have nothing against Muslims but I do recoil at how sharia is implemented.

Okay, but Sharia's already in every constitution in the Arab world and likely to remain so. So for me that's the starting point and the issue is how can you move away from it. I think there's more chance for change in systems that also have elections than coups, entrenched military power, ossification and dictatorship.

Tunisia could be an exception. Their draft constitution (from an Islamist government that won a majority, unlike the MB, and entered coalition with left parties, unlike the MB) doesn't have a reference to Sharia.

[DGuller]

When did Raz become the Defender of the Faith?  I don't think he was always like this.

Cause I don't like over throwing governments because you don't like who won the election.

Your obsessive defense of religion goes a little beyond that.  Could be just contrarianism, though, since this board leans decidedly atheist.

[CountDeMoney]

Shiv overrates Egypt's ability to be grown up about "democracy", of which they know absolutely nothing about other than the occasional foray at universities in other countries, where they tend to stay.

[Berkut]

At this point, I think we can safely say that Israel is pretty safe from being attacked by Egypt or anyone else.

I don't see much point in continued US attempts to steer Egypt in the "right" direction. There is no viable alternative that we can support. We cannot and should not be supporting a government run by Islamic radicals, even if legitimately elected, and we certainly should not be supported military regimes that overthrow democratically elected governments, regardless of how odious those governments might be.

Time to punt, and get the fuck out?

[Tamas]

At this point, I think we can safely say that Israel is pretty safe from being attacked by Egypt or anyone else.

I don't see much point in continued US attempts to steer Egypt in the "right" direction. There is no viable alternative that we can support. We cannot and should not be supporting a government run by Islamic radicals, even if legitimately elected, and we certainly should not be supported military regimes that overthrow democratically elected governments, regardless of how odious those governments might be.

Time to punt, and get the fuck out?

It must be tricky, because the Egyptian junta will look for support somewhere if they cannot massacre enough opposition on their own, and what they have done already means they either rule or hang from lamp poles, so if the US turns it`s back completely, they would probably get feelers out toward Iran.

And Israel can never be safe from these people. Hardly anything unites a population better than jew-hate. If Egypt doesn`t stabilize. expect border incidents and increased Egyptian buildup to defend from Zionist aggression.

[PJL]

Apparently Egypt gets a lot more funding from Saudi Arabia than from the US, so there really isn't much the US can do really. And there are no good alternatives anyway.

[Berkut]

At this point, I think we can safely say that Israel is pretty safe from being attacked by Egypt or anyone else.

I don't see much point in continued US attempts to steer Egypt in the "right" direction. There is no viable alternative that we can support. We cannot and should not be supporting a government run by Islamic radicals, even if legitimately elected, and we certainly should not be supported military regimes that overthrow democratically elected governments, regardless of how odious those governments might be.

Time to punt, and get the fuck out?

It must be tricky, because the Egyptian junta will look for support somewhere if they cannot massacre enough opposition on their own, and what they have done already means they either rule or hang from lamp poles, so if the US turns it`s back completely, they would probably get feelers out toward Iran.

And Israel can never be safe from these people. Hardly anything unites a population better than jew-hate. If Egypt doesn`t stabilize. expect border incidents and increased Egyptian buildup to defend from Zionist aggression.

Very possible. But I think Israel can pretty much handle anything that Egypt wants to throw at them from a conventional sense, and we can simply shift some of the funds sent to Egypt to Israel if necessary to augment their ability to defend themselves.

But the idea that we should continue to support Egypt as a means of maintaining influence over them and force them to play nice with Israel seems to me a rather dated idea at this point.

[CountDeMoney]

But the idea that we should continue to support Egypt as a means of maintaining influence over them and force them to play nice with Israel seems to me a rather dated idea at this point.

Good point:  just as the Cold War-era realpolitik approach to adopting and supporting client states in the Muddled East is no longer a viable option for US policy, the simple fact is Egypt just isn't as important to the US as it was in, say, the 1980s.  Back then, from Israel to countering Soviet influence to the Canal, it mattered.   Now, not so much.

Everybody seems to want to know why the US isn't doing "anything" from a policy standpoint in Syria, Libya, Egypt...but we neither possess the means nor the need to do "anything" anymore, either. 

Sure, Islamic fundamentalism needs to be capped, but hey, they want to vote 'em in, there's not much we can do about it;  over the long run, it's not going to be a matter of dodging Islamic fundamentalism, it's going to wind up being a choice between which type of fundamentalism is going to be worse to do business with:  Shia fundamentalism that looks to Tehran, or Sunni fundamentalism that points to AQ and 9/11 bullshit.

Unfortunately for us, the Age of Dictators is over.

[CountDeMoney]

Well, this certainly isn't the way to improve relations with the Egyptian FOP:

Suspected Islamist militants ambushed two police minibuses in northern Sinai on Monday, launching rocket-propelled grenades that killed at least 24 police officers and injured three others.
Egyptian authorities reported that the attack took place near the town of Rafah on the Egyptian-Israeli border, raising U.S. and Israeli concerns about heightened militant activity near the Gaza Strip.
The attack underscored the extent of ongoing violence in Egypt, which has claimed over 1,000 lives since Egyptian security forces stormed pro-Morsi sit-ins last Wednesday.
Meanwhile, on Sunday, the Egyptian government announced that 36 Islamist detainees died in custody while attempting to escape from the police.
The Interior Ministry said the prisoners "died of suffocation and crowding after tear gas was used to stop their escape," but the Muslim Brotherhood labeled the incident "murder" and "assassination."
In response to the Egypt crisis, the European Union convened emergency talks on Monday in which it would "urgently review its relations with Egypt and adopt measures aimed at pursuing these goals." The Obama administration decided on Sunday to withhold economic assistance to Egypt, but so far is continuing the $1.3 billion annual aid package to the Egyptian military.

[The Minsky Moment]

Turkey has a long standing secular government.  I'm not sure they had rule of law.

And there may be a connection from that fact to the events in Egypt.

The AKP has long been seen as the very best case scenario for an Islamic governing party.  From the standpoint of an Egyptian military commander, the best possible case that could come out of MB rule in Egypt would be something like the AKP in Turkey.
But that isn't very reassuring for the Egyptian military.  Because on August 5, the former Chief of General Staff of the Turkish Army along with other former high military officials were convicted and sentenced to long prison terms on what appear to be trumped up and political motivated charges.
If I were an Egpytian general, that news would give me great concern about my likely future should an MB government return to power and consolidate its authority.

That could be one of the factors that helped tip the balance to hardliners in the Egyptian military one month after the Morsi coup.

[Tamas]

Turkey has a long standing secular government.  I'm not sure they had rule of law.

And there may be a connection from that fact to the events in Egypt.

The AKP has long been seen as the very best case scenario for an Islamic governing party.  From the standpoint of an Egyptian military commander, the best possible case that could come out of MB rule in Egypt would be something like the AKP in Turkey.
But that isn't very reassuring for the Egyptian military.  Because on August 5, the former Chief of General Staff of the Turkish Army along with other former high military officials were convicted and sentenced to long prison terms on what appear to be trumped up and political motivated charges.
If I were an Egpytian general, that news would give me great concern about my likely future should an MB government return to power and consolidate its authority.

That could be one of the factors that helped tip the balance to hardliners in the Egyptian military one month after the Morsi coup.

excellent point.

I think this is simply a case of neither faction really thinking in terms of fighting it out in the political arena. Maybe it was just fear from the other side not respecting the rules, but they both wanted to settle the score outside of democracy.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

the comparison is that the MB/Morsi blundered, dithered and retreated. Luckily. They didn't manage to establish their dictatorship (politically at least, given their influence on the Streets most of their rule is already there) not for a lack of trying but for an abundance of failing.

But where's the evidence they were going to institute a dictatorship or that they could?

well, if that's what you're going to claim there's little reason to bother, isn't there?

[Razgovory]

When did Raz become the Defender of the Faith?  I don't think he was always like this.

Cause I don't like over throwing governments because you don't like who won the election.

Your obsessive defense of religion goes a little beyond that.  Could be just contrarianism, though, since this board leans decidedly atheist.

I find most atheists to be smug, sophomoric and tiresome.

[CountDeMoney]

A rather pointed opinion from one of the fellas over at Brookings

A Future Worse Than Mubarak's Reign
By: Shadi Hamid

It would be perverse if the January 2011 revolution paved the way for something worse than what it sought to replace. But that is where Egypt is headed. Under the regime of Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood was repressed, but the repression was never total. The Brotherhood, as the country's largest opposition force, was allowed room to operate, to contest elections, and to have seats in parliament. Mubarak may have been a dictator, but he was no radical.

The current military government is much more ambitious, with its aim to dismantle the Brotherhood and destroy it as a political force. Unlike Mubarak, the generals have tapped into real, popular anger against the Brotherhood – after its many failures in power – and helped nurture that anger into something ugly and visceral. It's no surprise when armies use force. That's what armies do. But it is scary to see ordinary Egyptians, "liberal" political parties and much of the country's media class cheering it on so enthusiastically.

Democratic transitions, even in the best of circumstances, are uneven, painful affairs. But it no longer makes much sense to say that Egypt is in such a transition. Even in the unlikely event that political violence somehow ceases, the changes ushered in by the July 3 military coup and its aftermath will be exceedingly difficult to reverse. The army's interventionist role in politics has become entrenched. Rather than at least pretending to rise above politics, the military and other state bodies have become explicitly partisan institutions. This will only exacerbate societal conflict in a deeply polarized country. Continuous civil conflict, in turn, will be used to justify permanent war against an array of internal and foreign enemies, both real and imagined.

There is no need to be surprised. This is what military coups look like. The symbolism, of course, is especially striking. Egypt is the most populous Arab country and a bellwether for the region. There was a time when observers would say banal, hopeful things like "Egypt can show the way toward a new democratic Middle East." But that was a different time.