Arab Spring, Round 2

[Savonarola]

My favorite Jews-left-behind story is Afganistan. As of the last decade, there were exactly two Jews left in Afganistan. As the last survivors of an ancient community, they had jointly inherited an extremely valuable medieval Torah scroll ...

... which they were busy fighting tooth and nail over. 

That would make for a great premise for a foreign language comedy; or a Samuel Beckett play.

[The Minsky Moment]

According to the Economist, Egypt spends 8% of GDP on energy subsidies. 

They can afford it, however, because of their buoyant economy, efficient tax system, and scrupulously honest civil service.

[Savonarola]

And the counter-counter-revolution goes on:

Morsi protests in Egypt turn deadly

Four dead and many injured as violence breaks out in two Egyptian cities between Morsi supporters and opponents.

Last Modified: 22 Jul 2013 18:43 


Supporters and opponents of ousted Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi have clashed in central Cairo and north of the capital, hurling stones at each other as security forces fired tear gas to try to disperse them, witnesses said.

Al Jazeera sources say at least four people have been killed in the violence, which erupted when the two groups came into contact on Monday evening.

One of the dead was killed on the outskirts of Tahrir Square, a hotseat for anti-Morsi demonstrators throughout the protests, while a further three were killed in Qalyoub City, sources say.

Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh, reporting from Cairo, said that two of the people in Qalyoub had been killed by gunfire and the third was hit by a train while fleeing the violence.

At least a further 27 people have been injured in the clashes, three critically, in the worst violence in the Egyptian capital since July 16, when seven died in confrontations.

Injured people have been removed from the fighting and seven Morsi supporters have been detained, according to state media.

An Egyptian security official says supporters of Egypt's ousted President Mohamed Morsi are clashing with opponents holding a sit-in in Cairo's Tahrir Square.

Al Jazeera's Nicole Johnston, reporting from Cairo, said that at this stage it was impossible to verify how the fighting began.

"It certainly started off peacefully, and then the anti-Morsi crowd met the pro-Morsi crowd and the fighting began," our correspondent said.

"It has been reported that people on both sides have guns. Normally we do not see violence so early in the day and the police intervened very quickly, firing teargas in an attempt to disperse the crowd.

"At this stage that does not seem to have worked."

Daily protests

The violence started when several hundred pro-Morsi protesters were marching towards the US Embassy to hold a demonstration against alleged American meddling in Egypt's affairs, the official said.

The march passed an entrance to Tahrir Square manned by anti-Morsi protesters, and the two sides pelted each other with rocks. Gunfire was heard, but it was not clear who was firing.

Armoured vehicles moved and blocked the road, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to the press.

The Muslim Brotherhood has staged daily protests across the country since Morsi was deposed on July 3, demanding his reinstatement.

[Savonarola]

Uh-oh:

Egypt army chief calls for nationwide rallies

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi says all Egyptians should protest on Friday to confront 'violence and terrorism'.
Last Modified: 24 Jul 2013 13:58 

Egypt's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has called for nationwide rallies to give the military a mandate to confront what he termed violence and terrorism following the removal of President Mohamed Morsi.

In a speech on Wednesday at a military graduation ceremony, Sisi called for the protests to be held on Friday, and denied accusations that he had betrayed Morsi.

"I ask ... that next [upcoming] Friday all honest and trustworthy Egyptians must come out," Sisi said in remarks broadcast live by state media. "Why come out? They come out to give me the mandate and order that I confront violence and potential terrorism."

Sisi also vowed to stick to a political roadmap that laid the way for a reform of the constitution and new elections within some six months.

He said his appeal for protests was not a call for violence and expressed support for efforts for national reconciliation.

The Muslim Brotherhood reacted quickly, with senior member Essam al-Erian issuing a statement directed at Sisi saying: "Your threat will not prevent millions to rally against coup ... You have been always in your office conspiring."

Violence continues

The army chief's speech came ahead of proposed "national reconciliation" sessions called for by the interim leader Adly Mansour, and followed renewed violence in and outside the capital Cairo, in which at least three people died.

Sisi offered condolences to the families of victims killed in such violence, which has been seen as recently as Wednesday morning.

Unknown gunmen who shot at Morsi supporters in Cairo killed at least two people, witnesses and health officials confirmed, adding to a death toll of more than 100 people since the president was removed by the military on July 3.

In a separate development on the same day, a bomb exploded at a police station in a province north of Cairo, killing one conscript, and wounding more than 15 people health officials said.

Reconciliation talks

Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood has said it will boycott Mansour's reconciliation talks.

A senior member of Al-Nour, Egypt's most powerful Salafi party, told Al Jazeera that it will also not be attending.

"The Muslim Brotherhood rejected an invite to Wednesday's national reconciliation meeting. For them, the legitimate president of Egypt is Mohamed Morsi," said Al Jazeera's Nadim Baba in Cairo.

Former presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, who is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, tweeted a warning against the talks.

"Military coup government failed to stop bloodshed and detains tens of peaceful protestors every day and besieges media and closes its channel. Which reconciliation are you calling for?" he wrote.

Earlier this week, Mansour renewed appeals for reconciliation with the Muslim Brotherhood.

"We want to turn a new page in the country's book with no hatred, no malice, no division," he said in a pre-recorded speech that also highlighted the importance of the army in Egypt's history.

The Al-Jazeera translation is amusingly awkward.   

[Savonarola]

Morsi accused of plotting with Hamas

Judge says deposed president is being held for 15 days, accused of aiding prison breaks during Mubarak ousting.
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2013 15:59 

Egypt's deposed president, Mohamed Morsi, is being detained for 15 days pending investigation on charges of conspiring with Hamas during the 2011 revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak, according to the state news agency MENA.

The investigation includes claims that Morsi collaborated with the Palestinian group to carry out "anti-state acts," including attacks on police stations and prisons.

Morsi himself was detained in Wadi Natroun prison during the revolution; he escaped on January 30, 2011, along with dozens of other inmates, including numerous high-ranking members of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The complaint against Morsi accuses him of plotting with Hamas to organise his escape.

An Al Jazeera source in the prosecution confirmed the report on Friday.

This is Morsi's first formal detention since he was toppled in a military coup on July 3. He has been held by the army since then in an undisclosed location.

His 15-day detention can be extended as the inquiry continues.

The report came as supporters and opponents of Morsi prepared for mass national protests called for by the country's army chief, and later by members of the Muslim Brotherhood, in a struggle over the country's future.

The Muslim Brotherhood criticised the ruling and described it as a sign that Mubarak's regime is returning to power.

"The accusations read as if they're a retaliation from the old regime, signalling 'We're back in full force,'" said Brotherhood spokesman Gehad El-Haddad.

Hamas, the rulers of the Gaza strip, called the investigation a "dangerous development."

"It is based on the premise that the Hamas movement is hostile," Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri told the AFP news agency. "[It] confirms that the current powers in Egypt are giving up on national causes and even using these issues to deal with other parties - first among them the Palestinian cause."

That's an odd plot development.  I had thought that Yousif Six-Pack viewed Hamas positively.

[Savonarola]

To be led by Gender-Issue-Sensitive Egyptian Louis Farrakhan:

Morsi supporters call for fresh Egypt rallies

Supporters of deposed president urged to come out for "million-person march", despite warnings from authorities.
Last Modified: 29 Jul 2013 15:37   

Supporters of Egypt's deposed president Mohamed Morsi have called for a "million-person march" against his ouster after authorities warned of "decisive" action if protesters are considered a threat.

Organisers of protests against the military's overthrow of Morsi urged demonstrators to march on security buildings on Monday night and called a march for Tuesday.

In a statement, the Anti-Coup Alliance of Islamist groups urged Egyptians "to go out into the streets and squares, to regain their freedom and dignity - that are being usurped by the bloody coup - and for the rights of the martyrs assassinated by its bullets."

The protest calls, which raises the possibility of fresh confrontations, comes after at least 72 people were killed at a sit-in in support of Morsi on Saturday morning.




The country has been bitterly divided between camps supporting and opposing the July 3 toppling of Morsi and hundreds of thousands have come our for rival mass rallies. Morsi's opponents had accused him of abusing his power and giving too much influence to his Muslim Brotherhood group.

'Honourable sons of the nation'

The Anti-Coup Alliance also called for protesters to march to security buildings in provinces across Egypt on Monday night "to condemn the criminal acts and the firing of live ammunition by the interior ministry at peaceful demonstrators".

Morsi supporters insist he will be reinstated, but the interim government has said it will move to disperse the protests and warned it would take "decisive" action if demonstrators overstepped their bounds.

The military issued its own warning to Cairo protesters in flyers dropped from helicopters early on Monday.

"We call on you not to approach military facilities or units, help us to protect your safety," it said, addressing protesters as "honourable sons of the nation".

A group of Egyptian NGOs issued a statement on Monday calling for interior minister Mohamed Ibrahim to be dismissed over what it called a "massacre," but also urged the Brotherhood to denounce violence.

"The interior minister should be dismissed and held accountable for his actions," the groups wrote, urging Morsi supporters to "take action to persuade their colleagues and leaders to renounce" violence.

In its first comments on the bloodshed, the interim presidency said on Sunday that it was "saddened" by the deaths, but dubbed the protest area where they occurred a "terror-originating spot".

A crackdown on Morsi supporters continued Monday, with the arrest of two leaders of the moderate Islamist Wasat party, president Abul Ala Mady and vice president Essam Sultan.

State news agency MENA said they were being investigated on suspicion of inciting violence and murder.

EU mediation

With tensions rising, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton was due to hold discussions with a range of government and opposition figures.

She was expected to meet interim president Adly Mansour and vice president for international affairs Mohamed ElBaradei, as well as members of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Tamarud group that organised protests calling for his removal.

Ashton's visit comes as Egyptian police detained two leaders of a Muslim Brotherhood-allied party in the latest in a wave of arrests.

Security officials said that Abul-Ela Madi and Essam Soltan, who faced arrest warrants linked to allegations of inciting violence, were found hiding in a home in a Cairo neighbourhood located near the main protest site of Morsi's supporters.

The party condemned the arrest of its leaders, saying such measures exacerbate the crisis and add new obstacles to efforts to build bridges.

In a statement, Ashton said she would be calling for "a fully inclusive transition... including the Muslim Brotherhood".

She added that this process must lead as fast as possible to a constitutional system and free and fair elections and a civilian government

"I will also repeat my call to end all violence. I deeply deplore the loss of life," she said.

The Brotherhood's political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, confirmed it would meet with Ashton on Monday on the basis of "constitutional legitimacy and in pursuit of an end to the military coup".

The group has insisted that it will not accept any solution to the crisis that does not involve Morsi's return to office.

[Viking]

To be led by Gender-Issue-Sensitive Egyptian Louis Farrakhan:

My gut feeling says that in the colloquial al-misri arabic "person" is not an inclusive term including women.

[Sheilbh]

I'd some hopes the military had learned their lessons, but sadly this all looks like high Mubarakism and is worse than the SCAF on many real issues.

The interior ministry has re-hired a lot of remnants from Mubarak's regime. The propaganda's spending far more time focusing on Sisi than the ostensibly civilian government he appointed. And the deaths at pro-Morsi protests continue. Over the weekend several died after being shot by the security services but apparently they also let local police brigades join in the shooting which is a worrying sign. The military's also been given back the right to try any civilian in a military court. Sisi has said (like the Muslim Brotherhood) that he has no intention of running for the Presidency, but reports are that he very well might.

It's looking more and more like an old-fashioned coup. But opinion can shift very quickly, the SCAF were initially pretty popular and the MB threw away their (slender) mandate within 18 months. Having said that this current incarnation of military government looks far more ruthless  than either of them.

I can't help but feel that El Baradei and others have been very useful idiots here.

[Sheilbh]

That's an odd plot development.  I had thought that Yousif Six-Pack viewed Hamas positively.

Nope. Hamas are very associated with the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar. If you don't like them because you're a lefty, or a Saudi sympathising Salafi then you're not going to be keen on Hamas. Also if you're Shia, given how totally Hamas have disassociated themselves from Assad.

In Egypt in particular Morsi actually clamped down on the border with Gaza far more than Mubarak. He also negotiated the truce which is something Egyptian Presidents since Sadat have tended to do. But even within the MB I never got a sense that there was a desire to fight Hamas's fight for them and among the opposition they're also seen (like the MB) as a state within a state and a group that tend to cause problems and disorder.

People may like them in Palestine fighting Israel but that doesn't mean they want them, or their allies in their own country. The comparison that springs to mind is that it's a bit like the IRA and Irish-Americans in the 80s.

[Sheilbh]

I thought this piece was interesting and the parallels with Pakistan are a bit worrying:

Sisi's Islamist Agenda for Egypt
The General's Radical Political Vision
Robert Springborg
July 28, 2013

Al-Sisi at a press conference in Cairo. (Courtesy Reuters)

Addressing graduates of military academies is a standard responsibility for high-ranking military officers all over the world. But last week, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the commander of Egypt's armed forces, which recently deposed the country's first freely elected president, went far beyond the conventions of the genre in a speech to graduates of Egypt's Navy and Air Defense academies. Sisi's true audience was the wider Egyptian public, and he presented himself less as a general in the armed forces than as a populist strongman. He urged Egyptians to take to the streets to show their support for the provisional government that he had installed after launching a coup to remove from power President Mohamed Morsi, a longtime leader of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood. "I've never asked you for anything," Sisi declared, before requesting a "mandate" to confront the Muslim Brotherhood, whose supporters have launched protests and sit-ins to denounce the new military-backed regime.

Sisi's speech was only the latest suggestion that he will not be content to simply serve as the leader of Egypt's military. Although he has vowed to lead Egypt through a democratic transition, there are plenty of indications that he is less than enthusiastic about democracy and that he intends to hold on to political power himself. But that's not to say that he envisions a return to the secular authoritarianism of Egypt's recent past. Given the details of Sisi's biography and the content of his only published work, a thesis he wrote in 2006 while studying at the U.S. Army War College in Pennsylvania, it seems possible that he might have something altogether different in mind: a hybrid regime that would combine Islamism with militarism. To judge from the ideas about governance that he put forward in his thesis, Sisi might see himself less as a custodian of Egypt's democratic future than as an Egyptian version of Muhammed Zia ul-Haq, the Pakistani general who seized power in 1977 and set about to "Islamicize" state and society in Pakistan.

Last summer, when Morsi tapped Sisi to replace Minister of Defense Muhammad Tantawi, Morsi clearly believed that he had chosen someone who was willing to subordinate himself to an elected government. Foreign observers also interpreted Sisi's promotion as a signal that the military would finally be professionalized, beginning with a reduction of its role in politics and then, possibly, the economy. Sisi's initial moves as defense minister reinforced this optimism. He immediately removed scores of older officers closely associated with his corrupt and unpopular predecessor. And he implicitly criticized the military's involvement in politics after the ouster of Hosni Mubarak in 2011, warning that such "dangerous" interventions could turn Egypt into Afghanistan or Somalia and would not recur.

The Muslim Brotherhood also had a favorable attitude toward Sisi, and certainly did not see him as a threat. Brotherhood spokesmen praised his dedication to military modernization and noted that, unlike his predecessor, who maintained close ties to Washington, Sisi was a fierce Egyptian nationalist -- "100 percent patriotic," in the words of Gamal Hishmat, the official spokesman for the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party. In May, when a prominent ultraconservative Salafist named Hazem Abu Ismail criticized Sisi for making "emotional" appeals for popular support for the military, a number of Brothers leapt to the general's defense.

Throughout Sisi's tenure as defense minister, the Brotherhood dismissed his political potential. Obviously, they underestimated him. That is not to say that he had been planning a coup the entire time; there is not enough evidence to determine that. But there is plenty of evidence that Sisi is not nearly as modest as he has always preferred Egyptians to believe. It is significant that he not only remained minister of defense in the new government but also took the post of first deputy prime minister. Following the cabinet's formation, Sisi's spokesperson appeared on television to say that although the general was not running for the presidency, there was nothing to prevent him from so doing if he retired from the military. Sisi also had his spokesman release a 30-minute YouTube video glorifying the general and the military, taking particular care to illustrate the military's provision of goods and services to civilians. Not long thereafter, demonstrators in Cairo and elsewhere were seen carrying large photos of Sisi.

As fears of the general's political ambitions have intensified, so have concerns about the nature of his political views. Since deposing Morsi, Sisi has clearly been trying to give the impression that he is committed to democracy. He has taken pains to ensure that civilian political figures share the limelight with him. Hazem al-Beblawi, who was appointed as the prime minister of the transitional government, claimed in his first television interview after taking office that he had not met Sisi prior to the swearing-in ceremony and that the general had not intervened in any way in his choice of ministers.

But even though he overthrew a government dominated by Islamists, there is reason to suspect that Sisi's true goal might not be the establishment of a more inclusive, secular democracy but, rather, a military-led resurrection and reformation of the Islamist project that the Brotherhood so abysmally mishandled. Indeed, after Morsi became president, he tapped Sisi to become defense minster precisely because there was plenty of evidence that the general was sympathetic to Islamism. He is reputed to be a particularly devout Muslim who frequently inserts Koranic verses into informal conversations, and his wife wears the conservative dress favored by more orthodox Muslims. Those concerned about Sisi's views on women's rights were alarmed by his defense of the military's use of "virginity tests" for female demonstrators detained during the uprising against Mubarak. Human-rights activists argued that the "tests" were amounted to sexual assaults; Sisi countered that they were intended "to protect the girls from rape."

Morsi likely also found much to admire in the thesis that Sisi produced at the U.S. Army War College, which, despite its innocuous title ("Democracy in the Middle East"), reads like a tract produced by the Muslim Brotherhood. In his opening paragraph, Sisi emphasizes the centrality of religion to the politics of the region, arguing that "for democracy to be successful in the Middle East," it must show "respect to the religious nature of the culture" and seek "public support from religious leaders [who] can help build strong support for the establishment of democratic systems." Egyptians and other Arabs will view democracy positively, he wrote, only if it "sustains the religious base versus devaluing religion and creating instability." Secularism, according to Sisi, "is unlikely to be favorably received by the vast majority of Middle Easterners, who are devout followers of the Islamic faith." He condemns governments that "tend toward secular rule," because they "disenfranchise large segments of the population who believe religion should not be excluded from government," and because "they often send religious leaders to prison."

But Sisi's thesis goes beyond simply rejecting the idea of a secular state; it embraces a more radical view of the proper place of religion in an Islamic democracy. He writes: "Democracy cannot be understood in the Middle East without an understanding of the concept of El Kalafa," or the caliphate, which Sisi defines as the 70-year period when Muslims were led by Muhammad and his immediate successors. Re-establishing this kind of leadership "is widely recognized as the goal for any new form of government" in the Middle East, he asserts. The central political mechanisms in such a system, he believes, are al-bi'ah (fealty to a ruler) and shura (a ruler's consultation with his subjects). Apologists for Islamic rule sometimes suggest that these concepts are inherently democratic, but in reality they fall far short of the democratic mark.

Sisi concludes that a tripartite government would be acceptable only if the executive, legislative, and judicial branches are all sufficiently Islamic; otherwise, there must be an independent "religious" branch of government. He acknowledges that it will be a challenge to incorporate Islam into government, but concludes that there is no other choice. (As an afterthought, he adds that "there must be consideration given to non-Islamic beliefs.")

If Sisi's thesis truly reflects his thinking -- and there is no reason to believe otherwise -- it suggests not only that he might want to stay at the helm of the new Egyptian state but that his vision of how to steer Egyptian society differs markedly from those of the secular-nationalist military rulers who led Egypt for decades: Gamal Abdel al-Nasser, Anwar al-Sadat, and Mubarak. The ideas in Sisi's thesis hew closer to those of Zia ul-Haq, who overthrew Pakistan's democratically elected government in 1977 and soon began a campaign of "Islamicization" that included the introduction of some elements of sharia into Pakistani law, along with a state-subsidized boom in religious education. It is worth noting that Sisi has gone out of his way to court the Salafist al-Nour Party, by ensuring that the constitutional declaration issued on July 13 preserved the controversial article stating "the principles of sharia law derived from established Sunni canons" will be Egypt's "main source of legislation." He also tried to undercut support for the leaders of the Brotherhood by appealing directly to their followers, referring to them as "good Egyptians" and "our brothers." These moves may have been intended to inoculate him against the charge that the coup was anti-Islamist -- a critical point, since Islamism still enjoys broad support in many parts of Egyptian society. But it may also reflect a genuine belief in and commitment to Islamism.

If Sisi continues to seek legitimacy for military rule by associating it with Islamism, it could prove to be a disaster for Egypt. At the very least, it would set back the democratic cause immeasurably. It would also reinforce the military's octopus-like hold on the economy, which is already one of the major obstacles to the country's economic development. And it would also pose new dilemmas for the military itself: somehow it would need to reconcile serving the strategic objectives of Islam and those of its American patrons. It's not clear whether that circle could be squared. And the experiment would likely come at the expense of the Egyptian people.

[CountDeMoney]

Now that is one wicked ball cap.

[Viking]

Now that is one wicked ball cap.

Liberace called, he wants he chair back.

[Sheilbh]

I know Arab strongmen love a gilt throne, but for a press conference?

[fhdz]

I know Arab strongmen love a gilt throne, but for a press conference?

Gotta set the tenor early.

[Ed Anger]

Looks like the Benny Hinn chair from TBN.