Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

Started by Syt, January 18, 2020, 09:36:09 AM

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Zoupa

Quote from: viper37 on September 18, 2020, 01:18:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 18, 2020, 12:22:03 PM
Well, shit.  Is this spreading due to people being stupid about masks, or is it because you just can't keep R below one without resorting to extreme measures?
Quote from: Syt on September 18, 2020, 12:25:11 PM
I suppose people got too careless until a spill point was reached where small clusters festered till the suddenly became visible and widespread.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 18, 2020, 12:48:31 PMThe UK still isn't particularly focused on masks and you very rarely see people wearing masks outdoors for example (good compliance in shops or public transport where it's mandatory though). This is a little out of date but there doesn't seem to be a wild connection between mask usage (or mandates) and infection rates, for example Spain is one of the strictest and most masked countries in Europe but it's also probably got the worst second wave so far - Italy which is equally strict on masks has less of a second wave: https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/which-countries-are-requiring-face-masks

Masks making people careless?  Masks having no relation to infection rates? 

Yeah, I've heard this theory before.  :secret: From a so-called "Karen" who is now supposedly anti-science on the forum.   :ph34r:

Sometimes, people want so much to believe in something that the pressure becomes immense on the politicians to act that way.  And we get what we have now, fucking idiots + careless people who think their masks give them a invincibility shield against covid.  At least before, we only had fucking idiots and people where not as careless.  <sigh>

Juste pour toi viper... https://www.lapresse.ca/covid-19/2020-09-21/le-masque-medical-efficace-pour-prevenir-les-infections-au-coronavirus.php

viper37

Medical masks only, not custom ones.  And they prevent 4-8% cases.  That ain't much.

Et il y a ce petit bout-ci:
QuoteEt si chacune des personnes exposées le portait adéquatement et en tout temps, tout indique que le nombre d'infections prévenues pourrait être plus important que ce que disent jusqu'ici les études.

"and if all exposed people were to wear it adequately[...]".

And that's the thing.  People aren't wearing it adequately.  We're supposed to fold it in a plastic bag when we remove it and throw it away or wash it with very hot water.  How many people do that do you think?  All I see are people touching their masks, removing it because it's too hot, not washing their hands, not keeping their distance.  They're also supposed to change it every 2hrs at work. I doubt it's in effect.

Like I said, I agree in the theoretical efficiency of masks.  Day-to-day use in the general population, not really, and that metastudy seems to confirm what I thought.

However, I am still wearing it. Still suffering in silence (except here). Still having lots of problems. :(

Et il y a ça aussi:
https://www.slate.fr/story/191184/masque-contrainte-difficultes-troubles-communication-personnes-neuroatypiques-covid-19

Quote«J'ai des problèmes pour supporter les sensations du masque»

Porter soi-même un masque peut aussi s'avérer ardu, voire handicapant sinon impossible: «Je suis agoraphobe et je fais parfois des crises de panique dans les endroits où il y a beaucoup de monde, confie Florian, doctorant en biotechnologie. J'ai appris à gérer ça en respirant bien profondément. Mais le masque diminue fortement la capacité à bien respirer. J'ai ainsi fait récemment une grosse crise dans le train. J'ai été obligé d'enlever le masque pour réussir à reprendre ma respiration et calmer la crise. Mais cela a rajouté du stress parce que retirer son masque comme ça, soudainement, dans un lieu public, n'est pas très bien vu. J'appréhende davantage mes sorties pour aller faire les courses.»

«L'impression qu'il y a un danger invisible à l'extérieur peut augmenter l'anxiété chez certaines personnes, confirme la Dr. Cancel. Il y a aussi l'effet mécanique de respirer dans un masque qui reproduit les symptômes physiques de l'angoisse ou des attaques de panique.»

Par ailleurs, les personnes porteuses d'un trouble du neurodéveloppement présentent souvent des hypersensibilités tactiles ou olfactives qui rendent le port du masque difficile, port qui en lui-même est déjà désagréable pour les personnes neurotypiques: «Après avoir essayé différents masques, j'ai toujours des problèmes pour supporter les sensations. Ils serrent les oreilles, me gênent en dessous des yeux, frottent sur la peau de mon visage. Il y a également l'odeur propre du masque ou le fait qu'il garde l'humidité (je ne supporte pas d'avoir le visage humide). J'arrive à gérer la plupart du temps. Mais quand d'autres choses me surstimulent, à cause du masque, je suis plus facilement susceptible d'être en surcharge sensorielle», explique Samaëlle, atteinte de troubles du spectre de l'autisme.

Aujourd'hui, il s'agit de comprendre que malgré toute leur bonne volonté, des personnes ne peuvent simplement pas porter le masque dans l'espace public. Ces personnes, cela peut être vous et moi, le confinement ayant fait naître des troubles anxieux chez beaucoup.

«Il faut que l'environnement s'adapte au handicap des personnes et tienne compte de leurs particularités», insiste Natacha. Si nous voulons éviter validisme et psychophobie, nous devons suspendre notre jugement sur ces réfractaires involontaires au port du masque et accepter d'intégrer les spécificités de chacun et de chacune.

Faut pas sous-estimer ce problème. Ce ne sont pas tous les non porteurs qui sont des covidiots.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

Barrister

Quote from: viper37 on September 21, 2020, 03:52:09 PM
And that's the thing.  People aren't wearing it adequately.  We're supposed to fold it in a plastic bag when we remove it and throw it away or wash it with very hot water.  How many people do that do you think?  All I see are people touching their masks, removing it because it's too hot, not washing their hands, not keeping their distance.  They're also supposed to change it every 2hrs at work. I doubt it's in effect.

That was the early advice.  But that's when they were much more concerned about surface transmission - someone sneezes on a door handle, you touch the door handle, you adjust your mask, which infects you with the virus.

The good news/bad news about Covid-19 is that we don't need to worry as much about surface transmission.  Some of the early studies that showed the virus can live for hours or days on exposed surfaces turns out they used viral loads well about what you'd ever see in the real world.

But the bad news of course is that it is airborne.  You can catch it by breathing particles in the air.  Which they didn't want to actually say at first (also because they didn't want to see a run on masks when they were needed for hospitals).  But now that masks are plentiful, they can go a long way to cutting down on the spread.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Grey Fox

Viper, how often do you have to wear a mask? My kids have to go to school & I don't have to wear one every day.
Colonel Caliga is Awesome.

Admiral Yi

Someone on NPR mentioned, in an offhand way, that 2/3 to 3/4 of infected people are asymptomatic.

viper37

Quote from: Grey Fox on September 21, 2020, 05:20:45 PM
Viper, how often do you have to wear a mask? My kids have to go to school & I don't have to wear one every day.
Currently, I don't have to wear it at work.  I manage to be out of the office when the secretary comes.  But I still need it for every kind of shopping I have to do.  It ain't as bad as it was in early August, but it depends on how warm is the place.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

DGuller

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 21, 2020, 05:32:02 PM
Someone on NPR mentioned, in an offhand way, that 2/3 to 3/4 of infected people are asymptomatic.
The figure of 3/4 being asymptomatic always made more sense to me than the figure of 1/4.  It seems more in line with the other statistics, such as the very high ratio of case fatality rate to infection fatality rate during the early stages of the pandemic when tests were not routinely performed.

celedhring

We currently have 50% of asymptomatic cases. And since we're probably still not catching everyone the real % will probably be even higher.

Tamas

Two group of UK scientists released two different public letters. One is supporting the idea of more blanket restrictions, the other argues we should just advise the vulnerable to be careful and return to normal as restrictions cause more hurt than they solve:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/sep/22/scientists-disagree-over-targeted-versus-nationwide-measures-to-tackle-covid


The latter ones ignore two things, I feel, perhaps by choice. One is that the middle class will have little trouble isolating their over-65s or to make individual choices whether they want to risk catching the thing, but multi-generational households or people who e.g. just have to have the grandparents look after kids cannot.

The other thing this "let the poor die and just carry on" strategy ignores is that this is precisely the approach we attempted in March. Then hospitals started to fill up at an alarming rate and we rushed into lockdown. Basically, if you let the poor get mass infected you need to go the full way and just make sure you reserve a certain number of ICU beds to non-Covid cases otherwise people you don't want to ignore might end up dying.

Sheilbh

QuoteCoronavirus: work from home if you can, says Gove in government U-turn

Minister announces 'shift in emphasis' in England as coronavirus infections soar
:lol: Literally two weeks after we were talking about the push to return to the office maybe being a bit premature.

Maybe Languishites are the "weirdos and misfits" Number 10 needs? :hmm:
Let's bomb Russia!

garbon

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2020, 04:13:59 AM
QuoteCoronavirus: work from home if you can, says Gove in government U-turn

Minister announces 'shift in emphasis' in England as coronavirus infections soar
:lol: Literally two weeks after we were talking about the push to return to the office maybe being a bit premature.

Maybe Languishites are the "weirdos and misfits" Number 10 needs? :hmm:
<_<
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."

I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

garbon

https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-poll-coronavirus-index-vaccine-doubts-e9205f29-8c18-4980-b920-a25b81eebd84.html

QuoteThe share of Americans eager to try a first-generation coronavirus vaccine dropped significantly in the latest installment of the Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index, as President Trump hyped suggestions that one could be ready before the election.

Why it matters: As the U.S. reaches a milestone of 200,000 deaths, this underscores the risks of politicizing the virus and its treatments.

The trend is taking place among Republicans as well as Democrats.

It's another warning of the potential difficulties health authorities will face in convincing enough Americans that a vaccine is safe and effective.

The big picture: Americans don't see the vaccine as a silver bullet right now. Many respondents in Week 25 of our national survey feel it's risky and at least want to wait to see how others do. And only half are prepared to pay out of pocket for it.

...
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."

I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Tamas

New rules in England aren't that draconic an escalation, to be honest:

QuoteFirst, we are once again asking office workers who can work from home to do so. In key public services and in all professions where home working is not possible, such as construction or retail, people should continue to attend their workplaces.

Second, from Thursday, all pubs, bars and restaurants must operate a table service only, except for takeaways. Together with all hospitality venues, they must close at 10pm.

And to help the police enforce this rule that means, alas, closing not just calling for last orders, because simplicity is paramount.

Third, we will extend the requirement to wear face coverings to include staff in retail, all users of taxis and private hire vehicles and staff and customers in indoor hospitality, except when seated at a table to eat or drink.

Fourth, in retail, leisure and tourism and other sectors, our Covid-secure guidelines will become legal obligations.

Fifth, now is the time to tighten up the rule of six. I'm afraid that from Monday a maximum of 15 people will be able to attend wedding ceremonies and receptions, though up to 30 can still attend a funeral, as now.

We will also have to extend the rule of six to all adult indoor team sports.

Sheilbh

It feels like they're trying for lighter touch measures that might last for six months (:blink: :() rather than really strict measures now. Though I think they said they might impose stricter temporary measures as well.

I think the workplace stuff matters though - we now know offices aren't likely to be re-opening until March which feels like a big deal. Also a limit on six is going to impact people's Christmas in a big way :mellow: :(
Let's bomb Russia!

Tamas

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2020, 08:08:41 AM
It feels like they're trying for lighter touch measures that might last for six months (:blink: :() rather than really strict measures now. Though I think they said they might impose stricter temporary measures as well.

I think the workplace stuff matters though - we now know offices aren't likely to be re-opening until March which feels like a big deal. Also a limit on six is going to impact people's Christmas in a big way :mellow: :(

Yeah, I am starting to give up on any hopes higher than keeping ICUs below capacity, hopefully people will come to their senses because these measures should be enough if people actually keep to them. Hopefully