Israel-Hamas War 2023

[viper37]

From what I've seen the tone is nothing like what I remember of the US post-9/11 - there is (again I think admirably) more argument and fractiousness still.

I see dissent in the form of editorials, op-eds in newspapers.  Like the excellent text given by CC.

But politically, I do not see a lot opposition.  I see unity.  And I fear what we will see in the coming weeks is a blood bath in Gaza, and it will be swept under the rug.  And even if there are questions raised later, it would be too late.

I'm seeing much more stuff like this blaming everyone but their government's policy for the attack than the alternative.

We will see.  I may misjudge the political climate.  I hope so.

[mongers]

Massive incursions from Hezbollah across the norther border ongoing.

False alarm apparently:

Now the Israeli military has checked and they believe it was a false alarm. But it just shows you the nervousness here.

[Hamilcar]

Massive incursions from Hezbollah across the norther border ongoing.

False alarm apparently:

Now the Israeli military has checked and they believe it was a false alarm. But it just shows you the nervousness here.

Really worrying that this could happen when everyone is on a hair trigger.

[mongers]

Massive incursions from Hezbollah across the norther border ongoing.

False alarm apparently:

Now the Israeli military has checked and they believe it was a false alarm. But it just shows you the nervousness here.

Really worrying that this could happen when everyone is on a hair trigger.

Prevalence of social media distorting not just news/information, but possible gov/mil. reactions?

[Hamilcar]

Massive incursions from Hezbollah across the norther border ongoing.

False alarm apparently:

Now the Israeli military has checked and they believe it was a false alarm. But it just shows you the nervousness here.

Really worrying that this could happen when everyone is on a hair trigger.

Prevalence of social media distorting not just news/information, but possible gov/mil. reactions?

We will have to wait and see what happened but my understanding is that the national app sent out alerts to everyone. It wasn't social media amplifying BS.

[OttoVonBismarck]

US President Joe Biden confirms reports that Hamas terrorists beheaded Israeli children in its surprise onslaught over the weekend.

"It is important for Americans to see what is happening. I have been doing this for a long time. I never thought that I would see... have confirmed pictures of terrorists beheading children," Biden says during remarks to US Jewish community leaders at a White House roundtable.

"Downplaying Hamas's atrocities and blaming the Jewish people is unthinkable," the president adds.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

US President Joe Biden confirms reports that Hamas terrorists beheaded Israeli children in its surprise onslaught over the weekend.

"It is important for Americans to see what is happening. I have been doing this for a long time. I never thought that I would see... have confirmed pictures of terrorists beheading children," Biden says during remarks to US Jewish community leaders at a White House roundtable.

"Downplaying Hamas's atrocities and blaming the Jewish people is unthinkable," the president adds.

Of course, plenty of people on Twitter are still claiming this isn't true and that Biden is lying.  There's no convincing people who don't want to be convinced.

[Jacob]

Of course, plenty of people on Twitter are still claiming this isn't true and that Biden is lying.  There's no convincing people who don't want to be convinced.

We all have authorities we trust and others we distrust, which is fair enough. Personally I believe Biden. I wouldn't believe Trump if he said the same thing.

Then, of course, there'll be people online (and "people" online) who'll claim to disbelieve because that disbelief serves a purpose.

[OttoVonBismarck]

In this case at least, it isn't just Biden.

There is an IDF commander on the ground who was the initial one saying it, then a French journalist who said she "confirmed" it with a trusted IDF source, then a couple of other journalists who have said the same. It seems a lot of people online won't believe it unless they personally watch a baby get its head chopped off, but I think there is a reasonable amount of proof.

I'm reminded of some relatives of mine who fought in WWII--including the last one still alive, who turned 100 in March. None of these men ever talked about the war in all the years I was growing up or for decades after--the one who is still alive never talked about it until he was 93 and started doing interviews for local news and doing veteran's parade events in his home town.

But one thing most of them did say, at some point or another, despite never talking about the war otherwise--was to the effect of "never let anyone tell you the Holocaust didn't happen." That was important enough to all of them that they felt the need to say it, and repeatedly, throughout their lives.

I suspect it is the same reason the U.S. military ordered all American-held German POWs to watch film reels taken of the camps being liberated, and why Eisenhower required local mayors and political leaders in Germany to walk through the camps as well--they knew there will always be people that try to minimize or talk away things like this.

[crazy canuck]

Of course, plenty of people on Twitter are still claiming this isn't true and that Biden is lying.  There's no convincing people who don't want to be convinced.

We all have authorities we trust and others we distrust, which is fair enough. Personally I believe Biden. I wouldn't believe Trump if he said the same thing.

Then, of course, there'll be people online (and "people" online) who'll claim to disbelieve because that disbelief serves a purpose.

An interesting angle regarding how Canadians are getting their news about this conflict now that links to actual news sites are not available, social media seems to be the main source of "news". It looks like very few Canadians actually go to news sites without getting their social media links to those sites.

[crazy canuck]

Maintaining control over a territory is significantly different than establishing control over a territory.

Yeah and I agree with OvB's points - especially if it is long term.

The other point is that for all countries except the US you need to make choices. If the IDF is occupying Gaza and the West Bank that might require a different approach in those areas and it might have a knock on effect on Israel's posture elsewhere.

I suppose the other goal with retaliation could be the strategic shock point. Israeli territory was invaded, towns were taken and it took the IDF hours to get there to respond and in some cases were still fighting Hamas one or two days later. For a country like Israel with its history and that has always relied on its deterrence threat that's a huge shock. They may want to try and restore deterrence in this operation by demonstrating the IDF's capabilities - although I'm not sure if attacking or occupying Gaza would really do that.

Yeah, the article I linked for Viper makes a similiar point.  Deterrence would not be reestablished by Israel committing a form of self punishment by attempting to occupy Gaza.

Rather the reverse would be more likely as nations and groups, who are at least sympathetic to the Palestinians are much more likely to be dragged into this conflict.

[DGuller]

I wonder if eventually Israel's plan would be to go in, try to kill every member of Hamas down to the last man, and then get out and seal it a little better this time around.  Sure, there is plenty of raw material in Gaza to replace Hamas, but maybe the replacements will remember how there got to be an opening that they filled, and that an opening can be created again. 

It's often said that harshly suppressing resistance just invites more of it, but I think that's true only up to a point.  Eventually the suppression just becomes too overwhelming to overcome through inspiration.  I think this is the kind of scenario of retribution rather than reoccupation that Israel can get away with, thanks primarily to the unspeakable brutality of Hamas, as long as they don't flatten too much of Gaza while digging out the Hamas fighters.

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't know when Netanyahu will go but I don't think it's possible to survive this, especially if more stories come out about warnings. The worst attack in Israeli happened on his watch, it largely affected communities who didn't vote for him and there seems to be a perception (which may be true) that the IDF weren't there to protect those Israelis because they were focusing on protecting the constituents of his coalition allies.

I can barely understand politics in the US, and I live here and interact regularly with Trump voters.  I definitely can't understand politics in Israel.  What you say makes sense; logic suggests that there should be accountability for such a massive security failure, especially one so easily traceable to ministry policy of monomaniacal focus on WB settlements.  Everyone knows Bibi is corrupt and played out; his only card left was a rep for "security" and he just presided over Israel's worst security catastrophe in 50 years.  But what do I know? If logic prevailed this shameful excuse of a government never would have got near to power in the first place, much less endured this long.

[Jacob]

I wonder if eventually Israel's plan would be to go in, try to kill every member of Hamas down to the last man, and then get out and seal it a little better this time around.  Sure, there is plenty of raw material in Gaza to replace Hamas, but maybe the replacements will remember how there got to be an opening that they filled, and that an opening can be created again. 

It's often said that harshly suppressing resistance just invites more of it, but I think that's true only up to a point.  Eventually the suppression just becomes too overwhelming to overcome through inspiration.  I think this is the kind of scenario of retribution rather than reoccupation that Israel can get away with, thanks primarily to the unspeakable brutality of Hamas, as long as they don't flatten too much of Gaza while digging out the Hamas fighters.

For that to be successful there has to be a space in which the retribution is terrible enough that it serves as an object lesson for the non-Hamas Palestinians who witness it (and survive), as well as for their descendants who only hear about it living in misery on the Palestinian territories; while at the same time being not so terrible that it unequivocally loses Israel the moral high ground in the eyes of the world (and themselves).

Personally, I don't think it is going to be very hard to find that spot and it may not exist.

[Threviel]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1712439647689728487

It seems like Israel is about to show what an enraged western democracy is capable of when the gloves come off. They are really not fucking around. This was presumably a warning shot across the bow to Iran, next time they'll bomb during/after landing.