Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Why would it have to be before "brexit day"? I don't think anyone believes that. It's looking likely we might not even have a deal to vote on by then.
Britain obviously isn't getting a deal better than what we have now. That's why anyone with half a brain voted remain. The name of the game is damage limitation.

[garbon]

Hasn't the UK had enough referenda? A referendum on a deal would just risk bringing about a no-deal, which would surely be worse than any deal.

Only if we let Mogg write the referendum.
If someone sensible does it no will mean leave things as they are/back to the drawing board.

Things are a no-deal today. If the UK manages to negotiate a deal with the EU and it fails a referendum then it seems optimistic to me to start negotiating a new deal and hope to finish it (including a new referendum) before Brexit Day. Especially if Brits expect the new deal to be better than the first...

I don't think it seems likely their will be a deal.

I think Unite's executive statement was more of a gesture to tell Labour they need to get their head in the game / to Corbyn: stop being so feckless.

[Tamas]

Well Corbyn IMHO wants to balance between having a lot of his voters on the Leave side, and being in a position of "told you we'd have done better" once the whole mess collapses on the government. AND it can't help that wants out of the EU as well.

It's a bloody mess the whole rotten lot. At this stage the only hope is that faced with the prospect of no deal, the government will agree to becoming Norway at the very last second.

[The Brain]

Why would it have to be before "brexit day"? I don't think anyone believes that. It's looking likely we might not even have a deal to vote on by then.
Britain obviously isn't getting a deal better than what we have now. That's why anyone with half a brain voted remain. The name of the game is damage limitation.

If there are no replacement agreements in place before Brexit Day it's a hard Brexit with everything that implies. Maybe later you can get a deal but you still have to manage the here and now.

[Tamas]

On managing the hear and now, the government's trade adviser was questioned by MPs recently.

As he revealed, things are easy. For example all the trade deals the UK is part of via the EU but not when he is out of the EU? No sweat. We will just replicate them with the third countries under the same conditions. Easy. It's like a Ctrl-C/Ctrl-V thing, evidently.

[Josquius]

Yep. The extent to which they just don't get it is absolutely painful

Why would it have to be before "brexit day"? I don't think anyone believes that. It's looking likely we might not even have a deal to vote on by then.
Britain obviously isn't getting a deal better than what we have now. That's why anyone with half a brain voted remain. The name of the game is damage limitation.

If there are no replacement agreements in place before Brexit Day it's a hard Brexit with everything that implies. Maybe later you can get a deal but you still have to manage the here and now.

The transition period of at least 2 years is in place. And we know that we can have a Norway style deal without issue.

[The Brain]

Yep. The extent to which they just don't get it is absolutely painful

Why would it have to be before "brexit day"? I don't think anyone believes that. It's looking likely we might not even have a deal to vote on by then.
Britain obviously isn't getting a deal better than what we have now. That's why anyone with half a brain voted remain. The name of the game is damage limitation.

If there are no replacement agreements in place before Brexit Day it's a hard Brexit with everything that implies. Maybe later you can get a deal but you still have to manage the here and now.

The transition period of at least 2 years is in place. And we know that we can have a Norway style deal without issue.

I have read that the transition period is conditional on both sides agreeing a final withdrawal treaty. Maybe that has changed/I remember wrong?

[Tamas]

AFAIK the transitional period is in the first agreed document but that's not much than a letter of intent on a few main points. All of it is conditional on an actual agreement. Like how there would not be an Irish hard border.That's exactly as concrete as the transitional period.

[Josquius]

Best likely case IMO is that the transitional period keeps going and going whilst they try and hash out an agreement.
Britain keeps most of its EU rights but without any say in how the EU is ran... Which given we have a habit of voting for people who operate contrary to British interests isn't entirely a bad thing.
After some years the government finally admits brexit probably isnt working but here is a deal to vote on anyway. It is roundly slapped down and we slot into an official EEC membership with a application for EU membership being filed before 2030

[crazy canuck]

I think the best case scenario is Parliament decides it is not bound by the results of the referendum, for any number of good reasons, and recommits itself to the EU.

[Tamas]

I think the best case scenario is Parliament decides it is not bound by the results of the referendum, for any number of good reasons, and recommits itself to the EU.

Heh. Not even the LibDems dare suggesting that.

3% majority of half the voters means it is SETTLED FOR ETERNITY, mister!

[Josquius]

I think the best case scenario is Parliament decides it is not bound by the results of the referendum, for any number of good reasons, and recommits itself to the EU.

I said best LIKELY case.
I sadly don't see it likely that politicians will suddenly decide to risk their career for the good or the country.

[crazy canuck]

I think the best case scenario is Parliament decides it is not bound by the results of the referendum, for any number of good reasons, and recommits itself to the EU.

I said best LIKELY case.
I sadly don't see it likely that politicians will suddenly decide to risk their career for the good or the country.

I don't understand why, there seems to be growing discontent with Brexit, surely there is someone who is willing to take up that cause.

[The Larch]

I think the best case scenario is Parliament decides it is not bound by the results of the referendum, for any number of good reasons, and recommits itself to the EU.

Heh. Not even the LibDems dare suggesting that.

3% majority of half the voters means it is SETTLED FOR ETERNITY, mister!

That's the most puzzling thing to me, it was a non binding vote won by a relatively slim margin with an extremely misleading campaign and it is being treated as it was the revealed word brought down from Mount Sinai by Moses.

I believe that after the vote went down I asked here (I think it was here) how possible it'd be that the vote would be disregarded, given that it was non binding, and the answer by a Brit poster (Gups, I believe) was that it'd be unthinkable. I wonder if the general opinion is still the same.

[Tamas]

I think the best case scenario is Parliament decides it is not bound by the results of the referendum, for any number of good reasons, and recommits itself to the EU.

Heh. Not even the LibDems dare suggesting that.

3% majority of half the voters means it is SETTLED FOR ETERNITY, mister!

That's the most puzzling thing to me, it was a non binding vote won by a relatively slim margin with an extremely misleading campaign and it is being treated as it was the revealed word brought down from Mount Sinai by Moses.

I believe that after the vote went down I asked here (I think it was here) how possible it'd be that the vote would be disregarded, given that it was non binding, and the answer by a Brit poster (Gups, I believe) was that it'd be unthinkable. I wonder if the general opinion is still the same.

I mostly blame spineless coward politicians who are afraid of their livelihood. You can see how the House of Lords is much more sane