Scottish Independence

[Agelastus]

I wouldn't be surprised if supine London Labour gave in either

I don't know about that, kowtowing to the Scottish Nationalists would cost Labour a lot of credibility both north and south of the border. Especially after the referendum fight.

I suspect the next parliament will have a minority government and an early election (with fixed term parliaments becoming a "did we really say that" thing of the past.)

Even if the Nationalists do hold the balance of power in the next parliament (which isn't certain, their polling figures are coming down off their post referendum high) I don't see either Labour or the Tories being able to accept a Confidence and Supply agreement with them.

[Admiral Yi]

Why do Scottish nationalists care so much about Trident? 

[Ed Anger]

Why do Scottish nationalists care so much about Trident? 

Scots hate the nukes. Goddamn pussies.

[Viking]

Why do Scottish nationalists care so much about Trident? 

The Trident Sub base is in Scotland. They've been harnessing the ire of NIMBY's and Unilateral Nuclear Disarmers to help them on to independence, arguing that independence means no trident and no nukes for scotland.

[Admiral Yi]

Most communities in the US that have a base are happy to have it and like to keep it.

[Sheilbh]

Most communities in the US that have a base are happy to have it and like to keep it.

I imagine the community in Faslane are very happy with it too. But that's not the same as Scotland.

As ever, the polling actually shows that Scottish attitudes are broadly similar to English ones and even if Scotland were to be independent a plurality (40%) would support hosting Trident.

For the SNP it's a useful issue because it's one of those things that can't be changed without full independence, no amount of devolution will get rid of Trident.

Even if the Nationalists do hold the balance of power in the next parliament (which isn't certain, their polling figures are coming down off their post referendum high) I don't see either Labour or the Tories being able to accept a Confidence and Supply agreement with them.

Coming down from over 50% could still leave them plenty of MPs. It may be that no-one else will be big enough to get the votes in the Commons and Salmond can prowl through Westminster like a 21st century Parnell.

Stranger things have happened. The SNP Holyrood minority government depended on the Tories for support after all.

[Admiral Yi]

I imagine the community in Faslane are very happy with it too. But that's not the same as Scotland.

Faslane has a back yard.  Scotland doesn't.

[Sheilbh]

Faslane has a back yard.  Scotland doesn't.

Okay. It's like opposition to anything nuclear, or fracking, often very local people are enthusiastic (not least because they get the economic benefits) but the further you go the more opposition grows.

It's not literally NIMBYism but that's as good a description as any.

[Ancient Demon]

It's not literally NIMBYism but that's as good a description as any.

I believe that would be BANANAism.

[Viking]

I imagine the community in Faslane are very happy with it too. But that's not the same as Scotland.

Faslane has a back yard.  Scotland doesn't.

Think of it this way, the NIMBY's and CND'ers probably represent a significant faction within the SNP and the independence campaign since neither Labour nor Conservatives would be a suitable place for them. So just like any Republican has to placate the tea party and any Democrat needs to placate the AFL-CIO the SNP needs to placate the CND.

[Sheilbh]

Think of it this way, the NIMBY's and CND'ers probably represent a significant faction within the SNP and the independence campaign since neither Labour nor Conservatives would be a suitable place for them. So just like any Republican has to placate the tea party and any Democrat needs to placate the AFL-CIO the SNP needs to placate the CND.

Labour supported unilateral nuclear disarmament through the 80s and there's a large chunk of the party that were totally opposed to renewing Trident. It's the standard answer when the left of Labour (and many Lib Dems) are asked 'what would you cut?'

Anyway new powers for the Scottish parliament have been fleshed out a bit:

Scottish parliament to get control over income tax and welfare spending
Far-reaching reforms to go ahead after Labour drops opposition but last-minute proposal to devolve abortion law sparks outrage
Severin Carrell and Libby Brooks

The Guardian, Wednesday 26 November 2014 18.38 GMT

Scottish ministers are to be given direct control over billions of pounds of income tax and welfare benefits in far-reaching reforms due to include housing, winter fuel payments and air passenger duty.

High level talks to agree the full package of new powers continued late into Wednesday as negotiators from all the main parties at Holyrood thrashed out the last details of a deal due to be revealed in Edinburgh on Thursday morning.

In a significant switch backed by Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, and party leader Ed Miliband, Labour has dropped its opposition to allowing the Scottish parliament to set different tax rates to the rest of the UK after watching support for the party plummet.

But in a concession demanded by Balls, Westminster will still have overall control over the personal allowance – the figure at which income tax starts and which now stands at £10,000-a-year – and the tax rates on unearned income such as interest on savings and share dividends.

The deal is also expected to allow Scottish ministers to control the housing benefit elements of the new universal credit system, potentially worth around £1.7bn.

The powers, agreed during secret talks overseen by Lord Smith of Kelvin and officials from the Treasury, are expected to be fast-tracked through Westminster next year. They had been brokered by former prime minister Gordon Brown in the closing stages of the Scottish independence referendum campaign.

Labour has been forced to give ground on income tax, devolving air passenger duty and on allowing Holyrood full control over Scottish parliament and council elections – including allowing 16- and 17-year-olds full voting rights – after a surge in support for the Scottish National party.

But as Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems edged closer to a deal with the SNP and Scottish Greens, a controversial plan to devolve abortion law to Scotland, ending a Britain-wide approach to cut-off dates on terminations, caused divisions.

Backed by Labour negotiators, leading women's groups including Abortion Rights and Engender Scotland submitted formal protests about the proposal, raising doubts over whether it would make the final cut.

The Scottish Greens, the SNP and Lord Smith support devolving abortion legislation and are understood to have argued that Holyrood has taken a liberal, pro-equality stance on all other policies on women's health and equalities.

But critics are furious, claiming that no evidence had been found to justify the move and that there had been no public debate before it was tabled by the Scottish Greens. The groups also said it risked giving anti-abortion campaigners the power to restrict abortions and creating a two-tier system in the UK.

Maria Fyfe, a leading pro-choice campaigner and former Labour MP for Glasgow Maryhill, said there had been an astonishing lack of consultation on the proposal.

"There is a huge danger that this will increase attacks on abortion rights if the legislation is devolved," she said. "Take the likes of Brian Souter, a big funder of the SNP, who strongly opposes abortion rights and funded an anti-gay rights campaign. How can we not be suspicious?"

Carolyn Leckie, a former midwife and senior figure in Women for Independence, said devolving abortion would allow the pro-choice movement to make Scottish abortion law more progressive and more flexible than the rest of the UK. The Smith commission's decision to allow Scotland to set its own air passenger duty to stimulate business travel and tourism will also infuriate airports in northern England and undermine efforts to cut carbon emissions.

Newcastle airport protested about the SNP's proposal to cut and then abolish APD during the referendum campaign, fearing it would cut passenger numbers. The measure was backed by Ryanair and British Airways.

Labour was forced to drop proposals to take full control over housing benefit because it is an integral part of the universal credit single welfare payment. Instead Holyrood is expected to be allowed to vary housing costs, the frequency of payments and also direct payments to either the claimant or housing provider.

Labour sources said these concessions proved the party was listening to Scottish voters, who came close to backing independence. "We needed to show good faith, and show we understand that people voted for change," said one.

The SNP is expected to accept all the Smith proposals, but will insist on Thursday that Scotland needs far greater autonomy, particularly over taxation and welfare.

[Sheilbh]

The implosion of Scottish Labour means the battle for Britain has only just begun
4 February 2015 14:02Fraser Nelson 

The latest polls suggest the SNP will take 55 of Scotland's 59 seats

Gordon Brown is holding an adjournment debate on the union this evening, which comes after an Ashcroft poll which shows precisely what danger the union is in. If today's polls were tomorrow's election result, the SNP would have 55 out of 59 seats in Scotland. It's even set to lose Coatbridge, where it picked up 70pc of the vote at the last election. Yes, this will help the Tories in the short term: Cameron needs the SNP to destroy Labour in the north and the SNP need Cameron in No10 – remember, their political model is based on grudge and gripe. Without a villain, Alex Salmond doesn't have a pantomime.

But back to Brown. He designed devolution to kill off the Tories in Scotland – he succeeded, but has ended up with the SNP instead. Since the mid-1990s Brown was seen as, and acted as, as the godfather of Scottish Labour and he is now confronted with the results of his disastrous strategy. Labour treated too much of Scotland as a rotten borough, a place for safe seats where its MPs had huge majorities and didn't have to fight. LabourList today recalls the Scottish Labour MP who told colleagues he didn't understand the fuss about having local party members – because in his constituency they have less than a hundred members and "win every time".

So the party's apparatus decayed, and Scottish Labour failed to rejuvenate – relying on clichés and tribal loyalty rather than strong, active, modern reasons to vote Labour.

The late Donald Dewar was a responsible First Minister with talent as big as his ego was small – he had no interest in antagonism with the rest of the Labour Party. It was, then, a fundamentally unionist party. But as a result, its A-team (John Reid, Robin Cook, Brian Wilson, Douglas Alexander) was in Westminster interested in governing Britain and its B-team was in Holyrood – facing the nationalists' A-Team. The talent mismatch helped the SNP take Holyrood in two successive elections.

Once, the SNP rejected devolution seeing it as a trap to halt their march to independence. But Salmond then changed his mind, declaring it a staging post. His calculation was that, over time, devolution would grow the egos of the other Scottish Labour MPs and they'd start to define themselves against 'London Labour' (a phrase straight out of the nationalist playbook). And so it was to prove. First, they defied 'London Labour' by offering free care to the elderly, then free university tuition (a decision made all the more deplorable by the fact that it was Scottish MPs who foisted tuition fees on England – had they abstained, Blair would have lost the vote).

For years, the hierarchy of Scottish Labour has been saying disobliging things about the UK Labour Party, complaining about being treated as a 'branch office' and so on. Its voters were listening, which helps explain why Ed Miliband was traduced when he came north to argue for the union – and when he has no takers when he asks for votes now. Even Jim Murphy has to engage in this 'we'll tax London millionaires!' rhetoric, and he has even felt the need to disown the word 'unionist'.

It pains me to say this, but the SNP richly deserves its success. During the referendum it ran a positive, inspirational campaign based on old-school politics with town hall meetings and door-to-door campaigning. Theirs is the politics of optimism, and it's infectious. As a stunned Scottish Labour Party is finding out. As Isabel remarked earlier, the Ashcroft poll asked Glaswegian voters how many times their door has been knocked by party activists. This showed the SNP tower above everyone else.

Brown gave a decent speech at the end of that campaign, but had sulked up until then. And even when he emerged, his interest was a personal one: he had written a book about Scotland with a bunch personal prescriptions. And today, he's hawking these prescriptions – banging on about the constitution and, ergo, dancing to the SNP's tune. It's part ego trip, part book tour – and not much of it helps Jim Murphy. Scottish Labour desperately needs to turn the conversation to other matters, where it has greater salience than the SNP. But Brown won't allow it. Even now, he  is dragging his party down.

Gordon Brown had five years to decide what he would do after the general election; only a few weeks ago he decided to stand down. By then, it was clear that there was no such thing as a safe Labour seat in Scotland – he would actually have to fight. And the odd thing about Brown is that, for all of his combativeness and love of dividing lines, he's never been very keen on fighting in the daylight. When his Dunfermline constituency was redrawn to become a not-so-safe Labour seat he booted out Lewis Moonie from neighbouring Kirkcaldy. In 2007 he did all he could to avoid a contested leadership election, and had his character assassins do in all likely rivals rather than face them in front of a Labour electorate. An opinion poll in 2007 led him to bottle out of holding a general election (and one he would have won, leading to Cameron's resignation). Brown prefers the fix to the fight. When it became clear that the SNP were on the rise in Kirkcaldy – and that his role in the Scottish Labour campaign would be akin to Michael Caine's role in Zulu -  he stood down.

Winning without fighting – this has been the motto of Gordon Brown's career in politics and, tragically, the motto of Scottish Labour. It's now clear that the party's fighting skills have atrophied and its apparatus has decayed.

This cannot be said for Jim Murphy: he won a Tory safe seat in 1997 and has fought to keep that seat every say of Labour's first term. He turned it into one of Scotland's safest seats. He's good at winning arguments, facing enemies, and when the referendum campaign came he went up and down the country making the case for the union. His energetic, upbeat style of politics could scarcely be more different to those of Gordon Brown, the Gollum of Whitehall who operated via stitch-ups, character assassination and backroom deals.


The UK political map, according to latest polls. From May2015.com

Finally, a confession. I'd like the Tories to win the next election, but not as much as I want Jim Murphy to do well. If Ashcroft's poll is right, then the end of Britain is once again on the cards. The collapse of Scottish Labour will have brought a new constitutional crisis to England's door and it will be harder than ever to talk about 'British politics' (see map on the right). Labour would be unwise to expect a dead cat bounce – the Scottish Tories have been waiting 18 years for theirs.

I'd rather spend a lifetime in a Labour-run Britain than a day in a fractured, diminished, disunited kingdom – and this is what this election now threatens. We thought the union had been saved (just) in the referendum. But the collapse of the last powerful unionist party in Scotland suggests that the battle for Britain may have only just begun.

Update: John Rentoul says that I've 'come out for Labour' – em, not quite. To clarify: I think an Ed Miliband government would be an utter disaster for Britain, but I think the breakup of Britain would be even worse. My first choice is for David Cameron to return to 10 Downing St without needing any help from Alex Salmond.

As Alex Massie's argued I can see Scotland developing a sort of post-civil war politics like Ireland. 60 years down the line people's votes determined by whether their grandparents were (or were remembered to be) one of the 45%.

[PJL]

I don't think the SNP will win 50+ seats in Scotland. They're very likely to be the largest party there though.  Having said that, I think the independence vote means they're likely to at least equal that percentage in the election. Why do I think that? Well, I think the roles have been reversed regarding Scottish parliament and general elections north of the border. I reckon many Scots now reckon the referendum and their own parliamentary elections to be the real deal, and that the general election will be the ultimate protest vote, and certainly a leverage on more powers for the Scottish parliament, which will pick up votes even from the No voters.

So I'd be surprised if the SNP get less than 40% at the GE. A lot may change up to then, but I honestly think something fundamental has changed in Scotland that has to be addressed or we'll face another independence referendum in 5 years time. And that will produce a majority to leave the Union.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Scotland has become ungovernable, and the British system is too weak to hold them. Might as well cut them loose. In America we don't allow votes on leaving the country in the first place, and we reacted harshly when States tried to do so unconstitutionally. Once you accept the legitimacy of a vote to leave you might as well accept permanent union can never be.

[Valmy]

Yet Quebec is now a permanent part of Canada.