Scottish Independence

[Viking]

Try this-
Gordon Brown:
If you want to kill off the United Kingdom, there is no better way

May I ask what the "what" is that Brown thinks will kill off the United Kingdom?

I think it's the article Garbon reposted.

Well, excellent argument against devolution. In any case the Holyrood Parliament is a Monstrous Carbuncle.

[Sheilbh]

Try this-
Gordon Brown:
If you want to kill off the United Kingdom, there is no better way

May I ask what the "what" is that Brown thinks will kill off the United Kingdom?

Try, 'Gordon Brown: If you want to kill off the United Kingdom, there is no better way', or as an advert 'Gordon Brown! If you want to kill off the United Kingdom, there is no better way'.

I think it was just a joke. Though RH will know.

I'm guessing Brown is criticising Cameron's little England mindset/behaviour?

How's it Little England?

Why are labour doing so poorly in Scotland? That is bizzare

I think there's three big things. But basically because there was no alternative they got weak and flabby and now there is an alternative.

First Labour's withered in its heartlands. Because there are large parts of Scotland that have been Labour for decades and where you could weigh the vote they've lost touch. They no longer necessarily have the organisational base that they used to because they haven't had to campaign for a very long time (see the Yes campaign's success in getting turn out up in working class areas) so they're not even able to identify their voters, where they are or how reliable they are. Added to that because they haven't been in a real campaign they haven't actually had to respond to people's concerns. They're like the old Highland who can safely deliver x thousand votes from his estate, until actually challenge.

Secondly they were saved from the consequences of that for a long time by the fact that there was no-one else to vote for. Scotland had the odd Socialist MSP (Tommy Sheridan, for example) or Communist MP (from Glasgow) but generally the alternative was the Tories who are hated or the Lib Dems for whom the working class are the people you read about in the Independent. With the SNP tacking left they've created a viable alternative to Labour who will compete in those traditional safe seats. Look at the career of the great Jimmy Reid for example CPGB to Labour to Scottish Socialists - but he died as a pro-independence SNP activist.

Thirdly the Scottish Labour Party is a pretty hateable movement. Because they'd always win their heartlands it was safe for the best and brightest to go to Westminster rather than actually spend their time trying to govern Scotland; they were above that, they had grander thoughts. So the day-to-day Scottish Labour on the TV was filled with second raters (certainly since the death of Donald Dewar). Needless to say that didn't lead to a massively competent party. Added to that their security made them not worry about internal party conflicts and Scottish Labour is full of internicine conflicts and factions and blood feuds that makes Albania look like the Home Counties.

What should worry Labour is how many of those problems could apply to the North where towns like Doncaster and South Shields have been sending MPs like Ed and David Miliband. Especially now UKIP's turning left.

Also I hate the sanguine, joyful reaction to UKIP winning in Clacton and probably winning Thurrock at the next election. Where Clacton in was Labour from 97 until 2005 and has the council ward with the highest unemployment rate in the country and Thurrock has been Labour since the war except for 87-92 and since 2010. These Essex working class seats are exactly where Labour need to win. They're going to UKIP and the Labour party either doesn't care or is happy because, at the moment, it's a loss for the Tories. They shouldn't be Tory in the first place and they sure as hell shouldn't be surrendered to UKIP if Labour really want to win.

[Valmy]

It is rather amazing how the Tories just continue to grind along with 1/5th to 1/4th of the Scottish Vote year after year after year.  Who are these Scottish Conservatives?  Farmers?  Middle Class professionals?  Old men still remembering their service in the Royal Scots Greys during the El Alamein Campaign?

[Sheilbh]

It is rather amazing how the Tories just continue to grind along with 1/5th to 1/4th of the Scottish Vote year after year after year.  Who are these Scottish Conservatives?  Farmers?  Middle Class professionals?  Old men still remembering their service in the Royal Scots Greys during the El Alamein Campaign?

1/4 would be amazing. They were on 15-6% a few years ago. Ruth Davidson (the Scottish Tory leader) had a very, very good referendum campaign. She impressed a lot of people.

But, the Borders

Lord Ashcroft did a big poll on it a year ago, the maps are still pretty interesting:
http://www.lordashcroftpolls.com/opinion-map/scottish-political-opinion-2013

Tory voters in Scotland  are like Tory voters everywhere but moreso. So they're older, richer, whiter and more male and they tend to be very solidly unionist. Plus around 25% of SNP voters were previous Tory voters and around 40% of Lib Dem voters have previously voted Tory. The trouble they've had is that for a long time they've been perceived as 'anti-Scottish' which for a party that generally does quite well out of solid middle class patriotism is a bit of a challenge.

Edit: For example on those maps compare trust on the economy - which is a Labour/Tory question - with voter segmentation. There's a fair bit of SNP/Tory overlap and the SNP heartlands - Aberdeenshire, Perthshire etc - would in England be solidly Tory. Which is why the independence referendum was interesting. The No vote was higher in those areas than anyone expected, while the Yes vote in the Labour heartlands was also higher.

[Valmy]

When your country is 95% white how exactly could something be 'whiter'?  Is that even a significant demographic descriptor?

[Sheilbh]

When your country is 95% white how exactly could something be 'whiter'?  Is that even a significant demographic descriptor?

Yep. There's especially a large Scottish-Asian community and ethnic minorities are growing as a percentage. The Tories all over need to worry about their failure to appeal to them while the Lib Dems should just be embarrassed at theirs.

It's interesting though largely based on pre-referendum polls. White minorities - such as EU migrants - were generally unionist, quite possibly because Scotland's position in the EU was under threat. But ethnic minorities were apparently pro-independence. The Scottish-Asian community was about two-thirds in favour. Which is probably the first time a nationalist party has won the minority vote

But there are striking/interesting shifts from the old Scottish voting. It seems that the Yes campaign pretty convincingly won the Scottish Catholic vote which would've been unimaginable even 10-15 years ago. Catholics used to be staunch unionists because they were a minority and they didn't trust the Presbyterian majority one bit.

Edit: Incidentally that's probably another problem for Scottish Labour. Ethnic minorities and Catholics used to always vote Labour.

[Valmy]

So you are basically saying Nationalist Scots are a bunch of Catholic Asians?  What a weird world I live in.

Anyway it would be sort of hard for them to shrink as a percentage without completely vanishing.

Which is probably the first time a nationalist party has won the minority vote

It is pretty predictable in a scenario where the nationalists are the left wingers.

[Sheilbh]

Anyway it would be sort of hard for them to shrink as a percentage without completely vanishing.

Sure. But as with most minorities in most places they're localised. They're, say 5% of Scotland's population, but they're 15% of Glasgow's or 10% of Edinburgh's - which matters in our system - not the fact that there are only three black people in the Highlands

Also the whiteness of a party is about more than just how many minority votes they win. It's about whether they seem comfortable and open to minority voters, which will also affect their perception among white voters (though I think the Tories are improving on this, but not quick enough). It's like if a party is perceived as not being open to gay voters, then it affects how likely some straight people are to vote for them too.

The SNP have made a very big play of how comfortable they are with multi-cultural Scotland. While the Tories still don't look fully comfortable with it in the UK and in Scotland still look a bit too much like they're just the fishing and hunting set.

[Valmy]

You know what this world needs?  A community of Highland Black people who only speak Gaelic.

[Sheilbh]

YES

[Crazy_Ivan80]

You know what this world needs?  A community of Highland Black people who only speak Gaelic.

heh, that would actually be awesome

[Josquius]

Gaelic language knowledge should be worth a shit tonne of points for immigration. That way we can make it happen.

[Sheilbh]

SNP conference. Salmond stands down, Sturgeon replaces him. They've started the neverendum and, alas, could hole the balance of power in the next Parliament.

Their condition for supporting Labour: scrap Trident.

Alas that doesn't mean a British force de frappe. It's time's like this when I feel very old Labour. I want to nationalise the railways, piss off the Russians and Bevin's view that in terms of a nuclear arsenal 'we've got to have this thing over here, whatever it costs. We've got to have the bloody Union Jack on top of it.'

I wouldn't be surprised if supine London Labour gave in either

[Josquius]

Oh if labour did finally decide to go for the obvious, politically and in practically, policy of nationalising the railways

[Jacob]

You know what this world needs?  A community of Highland Black people who only speak Gaelic.

Sounds like CKII.