Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[mongers]

[Sheilbh]

Let's start with who is winning.  Because chief among them are the billionaire coteries surrounding Trump and driving the current political bus. Notably including Musk, a man who gleefully exploits 21st century labor peonage and has outsourced billions of investments to China.  And yes including JD Vance, ersatz hillbilly turned Yale law grad turned venture capital tech bro, turned populist tribune of the working man, turned edgelord crusader of the antiwokian hordes turned [ADJECTIVE NOUN], a man who talks out of so many sides of his mouth that the orifice threatens to break fractal geometry.

Trump threatens retribution against the "elite" by which he means college educated professionals and intelligentsia, but while a few working federal jobs are suffering, the vast majority will benefit materially, at least in the short run, from tax cuts and brutal dismantling of whatever worker protections are left.  There is no shortage and will be no shortage of Ivy Leaguers lording it over MAGAworld.

The people who have been suffering from changes in production are the same ones who will get the shortest end of the Trumpian stick. All the Canadian aluminum tariffs in Trump's arsenal will not do anything for them and their worst exploiters will be liberated from the harried functionaries who once kept them barely under control.

Oh I agree. I think the oligarchs are using that populist anger and have leveraged/glommed onto MAGA to now destroy the professional/"knowledge worker" economy that has so far been relative beneficiaries - as I say I think that's the whole thing with AI as well.

It's to do to those white collar workers what automation - and globalisation - did to blue collar workers.

[Jacob]

You might be right, Sheilbh.

Though a thought just occurred to me - that most revolutions have come when the middle classes felt disenfranchised.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

And while I'm not the biggest fan of merging all our countries in a full federation there's probably no other option anymore if Europe wants to remain free of Russia, China or potentially the US (as well as other bad actors).

Welcome to being an euro federalist. 

I've been there before

[Syt]

[Duque de Bragança]

European is vague though. The usual suspects (east of France basically) continue to import gas from Russia through third parties.
Those who imported their LNG from elsewhere, rely not so much on gas (hello nuclear). Of course decommissioning nuclear plants to please the greens, using coal pissing the greens, relying even more on gas does not work well.

Well it depends what you mean by import. France, Belgium and Spain are 85% of European imports of Russian LNG. I've no doubt that's because they are the countries that have larger LNG terminals while east of France the infrastructure is more pipeline. The end users will be in the rest of Europe so I'm not sure European is vague in this context - it's Europe in action.

France and Spain are not exactly in the same situation. Spain gets a lot of gas by pipelines from North Africa, political conditions permitting (the row between Morocco and Algeria closed a pipeline); as for LNG, not necessarily from Russia. Spain, and Portugal for this matter, have outsized LNG port capacities (7 import terminals 1 mothballed back in 2022 for Spain in Gijón). There is only a limited pipeline connection to France and Midcat, a project for more capacity has been refused by France. Spain is also connected to Portugal, but Portugal gets Algerian gas through the same pipelines as Spain, with the reminder coming from Lagos (Nigeria not Portugal  ) to Sines, and from the US, again.

France gets most of its gas from Norway, however for LNG most of it comes from the US, with Russian imports increasing a lot in 2024, but for other countries, as you point out, namely Germany which has no real LNG import terminals.

Qatar exports a lot of LNG (see PSG  ) to Europe but that's only through LNG import terminals.

[Zanza]

Just Fyi, Germany has built multiple LNG terminals since 2022.

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump can withdraw all support. He can lift all sanctions. That will not stop the war. putin won't stop because he wants all of it. Ukrainians won't stop because they know what it means to live under muscovite occupation. They will fight them with sticks and stones and shovels.

All this does is increase casualties, mostly civilian casualties, as the moskal aviation will overwhelm air defenses without american missiles.

It's both sad and true that the heroic resistance of Ukrainians has done more to benefit the United States than Ukraine. To be clear, Ukrainian resistance has brought enormous benefits to Ukraine in the negative sense of avoiding the catastrophe of total domination and reduction to serfdom.  But in terms of the positive benefits, those have most flowed to Europe and the United States, in terms of blocking further Russian aggression, exposing Russian weakness, and badly degrading Russian military capabilities, all at a bargain price.

Once again, Ukraine is bearing the brunt of the burden in helping the United States. They will pay a terrible cost having to fight this war without American aid that could save Ukrainian lives and provide a clearer path to victory.  But in paying that cost, they will teach Americans the important lesson that the USA is not the center of the universe and is not as indispensable as it seems.  They will expose Trump's impotence by fighting on with or without America while telling the plain truth about our pathetic and petty idiot king.  And for those Americans still paying attention, they will remind us of the values on which the USA was founded and is supposed to stand for: unyielding courage and determination in the defense of freedom regardless of the odds.

[The Minsky Moment]

Oh and screw you Daily Star, poodles are intelligent and brave creatures, how dare you compare them to that contemptible shit.

[Syt]

Trump: Fuck Canada, fuck EU, fuck Mexico, TARRIFFS FOR ALL!!! 

Also Trump: We will start business cooperations with Russia.

[HVC]

mccarthy is rolling in his grave

[mongers]

Oh and screw you Daily Star, poodles are intelligent and brave creatures, how dare you compare them to that contemptible shit.

[Valmy]

Trump: Fuck Canada, fuck EU, fuck Mexico, TARRIFFS FOR ALL!!! 

Also Trump: We will start business cooperations with Russia.

He did the same thing last time. Hostility to countries we have good relations with, friendship for countries who are clearly our enemies and we cannot trust.

[Syt]

He did, but he's turning it up to 11.

[Valmy]

He did, but he's turning it up to 11.

Like everything else.