Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Tonitrus]

It's hard to figure out what thread to put this in, but as discussed there were earlier reports that Trump is threatening to withdraw from Europe if they do not acquiesce to whatever "peace" plan he negotiates with Putin.

It appears that withdrawing from Eastern European countries (Poland, Romania, Czechia, and Hungary) were on the table during negotiations in Saudi Arabia but the US rejected it "for now": https://www.romania-insider.com/romania-usa-nato-russia-february-2025

I think Rubio will resign before that, maybe even as soon as Summers end, I don't even he could swallow being a part of such a 'deal'.

So what if he does?  Rubio's appointment was seen as (more so in hindsight) as an almost conciliatory gesture to the mainline GOP.  After the last few weeks, why wouldn't the POTUS now think he couldn't put anyone he wants there?

My prediction: the next Secretary of State Oliver Stone. 

[Sheilbh]

I don't think Rubio would resign. I think there will absolutely be chaos in appointments.

But I think people taking jobs in this Trump administration know what they're getting and are on board with it. I don't think there'll be any Tillersons or Kellys this time round or that anyone accepting a position in this administration will have any personal red lines.

[viper37]

The United States has stopped the sale of weapons to Ukraine

The marriage has been consumed.


Otto is happy.  His dream is coming true, more Palestinians will be killed by Israel while Ukraine burn.

Not the most reliable source, there.

I now know, sorry.  Wrong Pravda.

I looked on Mediabiasfactcheck and it gave me the same owner's name for both sites.  

[Crazy_Ivan80]

It's hard to figure out what thread to put this in, but as discussed there were earlier reports that Trump is threatening to withdraw from Europe if they do not acquiesce to whatever "peace" plan he negotiates with Putin.

It appears that withdrawing from Eastern European countries (Poland, Romania, Czechia, and Hungary) were on the table during negotiations in Saudi Arabia but the US rejected it "for now": https://www.romania-insider.com/romania-usa-nato-russia-february-2025

Putin should ask for Alaska,  he might just get it

[Josquius]

It's hard to figure out what thread to put this in, but as discussed there were earlier reports that Trump is threatening to withdraw from Europe if they do not acquiesce to whatever "peace" plan he negotiates with Putin.

It appears that withdrawing from Eastern European countries (Poland, Romania, Czechia, and Hungary) were on the table during negotiations in Saudi Arabia but the US rejected it "for now": https://www.romania-insider.com/romania-usa-nato-russia-february-2025

Putin should ask for Alaska,  he might just get it

What better way to get Canada to increase military spending. A genius 3D chess deal!

[The Minsky Moment]

It's hard to see NATO surviving as anything other than a shell. 

The problem isn't that Trump negotiates based on a zero-sum worldview, the problem is that he is so ignorant about the basics of international relations and strategy, he has no clue how to negotiate.  That has been glaringly obvious over the last few days as Trump began the negotiation by conceding the biggest Russian asks before coming to the table, thus eliminating all leverage.  That, in combination with the administration's clearly declared intent to gut aid to Ukraine under all circumstances, gave Ukraine no reason to negotiate and Russia no reason to concede anything.  That result may be WAD from the POV of the Kremlinophiles that dominate Trump's administration, but Trump himself clearly wants A DEAL to occur and is too stupid to grasp why his conduct and policy undermined that.

According to reports, Trump's agenda is to get Europeans to pay more to support US deployments in Europe.  But in a zero-sum game, willingness to pay is based only the perceived value by what is being paid for.  In the last week, Trump catastrophically reduced the perceived value of the US military presence, to the point where many Europeans are likely to question whether there is ANY positive value associated with it.  I would not be surprised if e.g. Germany decides that they are no longer interested paying enormous sums to support US basing. It's pretty easy to see how a cycle of tit-for-tat retaliations either results in a formal withdrawal from the alliance by Trump in a fit of pique or relegating it to a historical fossil.

[Razgovory]

It's hard to figure out what thread to put this in, but as discussed there were earlier reports that Trump is threatening to withdraw from Europe if they do not acquiesce to whatever "peace" plan he negotiates with Putin.

It appears that withdrawing from Eastern European countries (Poland, Romania, Czechia, and Hungary) were on the table during negotiations in Saudi Arabia but the US rejected it "for now": https://www.romania-insider.com/romania-usa-nato-russia-february-2025

Putin should ask for Alaska,  he might just get it

What better way to get Canada to increase military spending. A genius 3D chess deal!

Canada has bordered a theocratic, war-mongering fascist state for 50 years yet has done nothing to build up its defense.  And like Europe, it has it has inexplicably entrusted it's protection to this entity.  I don't know if it is true in Canada, but in Europe the people who are most concerned with American fascist hegemony are the most likely to demand demilitarization in the face of it.

[Syt]

Well, at least the stock of European defense companies seem to be benefiting (esp. compared to American ones) for the moment

[Valmy]

Well yeah. Trump keeps talking about cutting the Pentagon budget in half.

Now under the old American Constitution (1787-2025 RIP) Congress decides what the Pentagon Budget is, but under the new Constitution the President can just decide. So I can see why that would be bad for defense investing.

[crazy canuck]

It's hard to figure out what thread to put this in, but as discussed there were earlier reports that Trump is threatening to withdraw from Europe if they do not acquiesce to whatever "peace" plan he negotiates with Putin.

It appears that withdrawing from Eastern European countries (Poland, Romania, Czechia, and Hungary) were on the table during negotiations in Saudi Arabia but the US rejected it "for now": https://www.romania-insider.com/romania-usa-nato-russia-february-2025

Putin should ask for Alaska,  he might just get it

What better way to get Canada to increase military spending. A genius 3D chess deal!

Canada has bordered a theocratic, war-mongering fascist state for 50 years yet has done nothing to build up its defense.  And like Europe, it has it has inexplicably entrusted it's protection to this entity.  I don't know if it is true in Canada, but in Europe the people who are most concerned with American fascist hegemony are the most likely to demand demilitarization in the face of it.

You have taken a weird turn today. Everything ok?

[Razgovory]

Not really, I may get thrown out of my apartment today.  The floor leaks and  they can't fix it so they may end up blaming me so they don't have to pay for it.

[crazy canuck]

Not really, I may get thrown out of my apartment today.  The floor leaks and  they can't fix it so they may end up blaming me so they don't have to pay for it.

Sorry to hear that. 

[Jacob]

That sucks Raz. Hope that it doesn't happen, or if it does that you quickly land somewhere decent.

[Valmy]

Not really, I may get thrown out of my apartment today.  The floor leaks and  they can't fix it so they may end up blaming me so they don't have to pay for it.

What? That sucks. 

[Jacob]

Two things:

1) Looks like China is supporting the American and Russian peace initiative.

2) Looks like Russia is aiming to declare victory against Ukraine and NATO on Feb 24: https://www.politico.eu/article/war-in-ukraine-russia-victory-declaration-february-24-propaganda/

I guess (but don't know) Ukraine will continue fighting, and I expect that Europe will continue to support Ukraine.

I suppose the question for me are:

1) How long will Ukraine retain the will to fight?

2) To what degree will the removal of American sanctions (so therefore the opportunity to leverage American tech and overt Chinese support freed of the fear of American sanctions) alter the way the war is fought.

3) To what sort of pressure and follow-through might we see from the US against Europe to make them comply with the US-Russian-Chinese agreement.