Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

One possible scenario:

Prigozhin is/was the face of a group of oligarchs/ siloviki rather than the actual leader.

That coalition got something in negotiations and told Prigozhin to stand down.

I dunno... is the stand-down confirmed or still at the rumour stage?

[Sheilbh]

I don't get it.  Surely both Prigozhin and Putin understand that one of them is going to die.  If it looks like Russia is a country of feuding warlords, then Putin loses all power.  If Prigozhin halted his march without getting any power in return, then there is no way he doesn't die as soon as Russia prepares for him properly.

I've not got a fucking clue.

What I wonder is basically if it came down to all that was left was committing the armed forces v Wagner - and their loyalties were not clear so for both Prigozhin and Putin it would've been a dice roll. See Prigozhin's line about pulling back before blood was spilled.

Wagner won't get subsumed into the MoD, Shoigu and Gerasimov are probably gone. Putin stays, as ever, balancing and Prigozhin increases his role but needs to keep an eye over his shoulder.

Maybe? Plausible? No idea.

Other thought is it's clearly not a solid state and by getting rid of Shoigu and Gerasimov over the conduct of the war, there's no human shield to deflect criticism of Putin (or Prigozhin) over how the war goes from then on. Or maybe there's an attempt to find an off ramp - and I imagine Ukraine will (understandably) be maximalist in their aims. Either way I don't think we're at the end yet, even if there's a pause now.

[Tamas]

As I understand Belarus and Prigozhin have confirmed the stand down but nothing from the Kremlin yet.

[Sheilbh]

Although the way it is phrased is striking. Lukashenko negotiated the deal and has "notified the Kremlin".

Still feels like a pretty fundamental blow to Putin's power and legitimacy.

[Hamilcar]

This stinks to high heaven. I wonder what really transpired?

[Razgovory]

[Crazy_Ivan80]

What a cock tease this was.

Stopped at the gates of Moscow


Maybe General Winter came early 😀

it's the swastika-tattoos, they suddenly activated

[Iormlund]

The only thing that even remotely makes sense to me is that Prigo got ahold of some tac nukes in Rostov and will "safekeep" them in return for keeping Wagner (and his life).

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Although the way it is phrased is striking. Lukashenko negotiated the deal and has "notified the Kremlin".

Still feels like a pretty fundamental blow to Putin's power and legitimacy.

Imagine if the real surprise of the day is Lukashenko ending up as president of Russia

[Josquius]

Bad boyars whispered lies in putins ears and he clearly sees now prizogen was a loyal Russian patriot rushing to warn him of an imminent coup but he didn't make it in time.
Judo chopping his way out of his unknown house arrest (he was sleeping. The fools) Putin single handedly seized control of the kremlin from the conspirators, like that American film but more bad ass.
He then got on the radio with his dear friend Lukashenko who informed him of the reality. Prizogen is normally completely beneath the great master putins notice but his attention turned he forgives the patriot and orders the arrest of everyone on this list. They're the real traitors.

Something like so?

[Jacob]

Whatever is actually happening, there are newer and more visible cracks in Putin's appearance of power and control.

[FunkMonk]

The main lesson here is that if you have your own private army in Russia you can march on Moscow and challenge Putin with relative impunity.

[viper37]

Wagner has turned back after talking to Lukashenko, to avoid a blood bath.

[Duque de Bragança]

Although the way it is phrased is striking. Lukashenko negotiated the deal and has "notified the Kremlin".

Still feels like a pretty fundamental blow to Putin's power and legitimacy.

Imagine if the real surprise of the day is Lukashenko ending up as president of Russia

That would be a step closer to Soviet times. Could be spun as a victory.

[Tamas]

So I guess what happened was that the Duke of Nova Rossiya was threatened to have their noble privileges removed, he got pissed and marched on the capital. Due to his weakness, the Tsar ended up making a deal (likely to preserve the Duke's privileges), and the conflict ended.

The thing is, Russia makes a whole lot more sense if you think of it as a medieval/feudal society.