Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Jacob]

Yes, while the official line is "we're investing heavily in Arctic capabilities to keep the Russians and Chinese out", Europe did not rush military assets to Greenland to forestall aggressive moves by either of those countries.

It's pretty clear that having enough sharp points that taking over national territory is non-trivial for the US is a key strategic consideration moving forward.

Hopefully it'll never be tested, of course.

[viper37]

How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi

Interesting.  A bit overstated though.  The title is hyperbole.

[HVC]

If my news feeds are to be believed your peripheral* nations are planning for a farange victory and subsequent secessions.



*

[Josquius]

How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi

Interesting.  A bit overstated though.  The title is hyperbole.

Thatcher.
The answer is Thatcher.
The problem with Thatcherism is you eventually run out of other people's industries.

She fucked housing too. Amongst many other things.

Though yes. The 2010s should have been a huge opportunity.... Instead they blindly pursued stupid ideology to cut the state.

[viper37]

How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi

Interesting.  A bit overstated though.  The title is hyperbole.

Thatcher.
The answer is Thatcher.
The problem with Thatcherism is you eventually run out of other people's industries.

She fucked housing too. Amongst many other things.

Though yes. The 2010s should have been a huge opportunity.... Instead they blindly pursued stupid ideology to cut the state.

Or Thatcher saved the UK from imminent failure, Brexit and following decisions brought it back close to collapse.   In between, the Iraq war venture did not help at all.

I believe the UK was always built on the model of an Imperial state and has had trouble adjusting to living as a country post WWII.  France suffers the same problem.  Trade alliances replaces imperial colonies, but not everyone is bright enough to see it.  Germany was forced with a reckoning after WWII, but they struggle with integrating East-Germany that has always been subsidized by the USSR and now by West-Germany.  The gap was huge in 1990, and it's not closing quickly.  it's easily exploited by other nations.

[Valmy]

I question Mississippi's supposed advanced wealth when its Human Development Index is on East European levels, well behind the UK. So wherever Mississippi's vast wealth is, it clearly isn't in the possession of Mississippians.

[Sheilbh]

How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi

Interesting.  A bit overstated though.  The title is hyperbole.

Yeah - I think to Valmy's point there is a need to be a little cautious on this type of thing as I think this is part of the general "Europoor" narrative that the right (and particularly techbro boosters) in the US seem very interested in.

It is true. If the UK was a state it would have the lowest GDP per capita. We would also have the best life expectancy, maternity and statutory holiday, the lowest homicide rate, prison occupancy, road deaths and drug deaths. We'd be in the top five states on minimum wage (third) on eduational attainment and environmental record and 9th on HDI. So there is a political choice going on around distribution and Britain is fundamentally a European country on this (our problem is always that the public want European welfare and American taxes ). We're a mixed social democratic economy with some distinctive features (strong preference for universalism v social insurance for example). I am broadly comfortable with those trade-offs - but I do think they are trade-offs.

I also think there is a little bit of catastrophism about Britain that can be somewhat overblown (and to which, on this little corner of the internet, I may have contributed ). I think this is particularly the case in American discourse where we seem to be the cautionary lesson for both right and left - which is perfect for the Atlantic as the tribune of the neo-liberal order to "en meme temps" Brexit and record levels of tax since the war. We are the disciplinary example against the excessive of both Trumpism and the DSA, while also being a quasi-totalitarian state with no free speech and "destruction" of our civilisation by immigration for the right, and "rainy fascist island" for the left. I think all of these tend to say more about America than Britain (in the same way as Britain's end-of-empire anxieties in the 1890s reveal more about Britain at that time than anything) - they also suggest that in much the same way as the British press would benefit from learning another language and looking more broadly than Waukesha County, the American press could also benefit from learning another language.

The reality is that whenever you cut it the UK has basically been pretty unexceptional/middle of the table. So since the Brexit referendum I think the UK is 3rd in the G7 in terms of growth - ahead of Germany, Italy, Japan and France, behind Canada and significantly behind the US. From 2019 (so pre-covid) I think it's similar - behind the US and Canada, a little behind Italy, but ahead of France, Germany and Japan. Since Brexit actually happened, we're second fastest growign economy in the G7. I don't think that is the perception which is a problem - but I think it also indicates that there have been many other shocks. Germny is going through China shock 2.0, there's a war in Europe, huge disruption to food and energy markets (to which Britain is unusually exposed). I think the outlier in recent years has been either countries recovering from incredibly severe austerity (Greece - still not fully back to pre-2008 levels - and Spain), sometimes with tax evasion making the numbers a little unreliable (Ireland) or the US. And the driver of growth in the US in the last 20 years seems to me to have been the shale revolution (and the European approach, including Britain, has been to ban fracking) and in recent years AI.

I'd add on the imperial point that all of this is fairly reminiscent of mid-century declinism and blaming empire and post-imperial hangovers has been the go-to for left and right for the last hundred years. Whether you're on the Corelli Barnett right wing end or the Anderson-Nairn end, while I think there's aspects that are true from an ideological perspective I'm not sure it is the right lens now anymore than it was in the 1960s - not least because, as then, actually a lot of the issues in Britain it seems to me are more generalisable and it may simply be that (possibly because of our political system - as another slighty distinctive feature) we were early and aggressive adopters so the morbid symptoms are more visible, earlier.

On the Thatcher - I'd take the bespoke position that it's actually a combination of John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. There are big problems with Thatcher's settlement but she is above all else a Cold Warrior who blocks foreign capital buying British companies and presides a functioning state. Under Major and then especially Blair and Brown, companies are not only privatised but globalised and our state capacity collapses as we move to PFI and outsource and PPP. I think rebuilding state capacity, sending a million prcurement lawyers to the gulag and consigning "cost/benefit ratios" to the dustbin of history is what's required to recover. And not just in Britain. The neoliberal order is dying around us - let's move on from neo-Bourbon reaction yearning for the 90s and push what's falling.

If my news feeds are to be believed your peripheral* nations are planning for a farange victory and subsequent secessions.



*

I'm going to make a bold prediction - do not hold me to it

Not only will Farage not be our next PM, he won't even be leading Reform into the next election and might not be an MP*.

*All of this is cancelled if Burnham calls an early election - but Farage won't be the next PM.

On the nationalist front - we're nowhere near that position in Wales (and Reform came second in the Senedd elections). In Scotland at the last election the pro-independence parties collectively won about 45% of the vote and the pro-union parties about 55% of the vote - and basically in polls on independence since 2014 it's swung back and forth but basically independence or not have stayed in that 45/55% range. It's plateaued. I don't see it shifting signficantly soon. Though I agree that I think Farage would possibly change the picture as he is (like Boris Johnson) a distnictively English type of politician, though even in Scotland Reform were the biggest winners and came third so have as many seats as Scottish Labour (who came second).

[crazy canuck]

To the points already made, the Mississippi meme is played over and over again by those who want to try to discredit states that have actual services for the benefit of their citizens.

[mongers]

Is it really necessary for the BBC world news page to have four different items about T.Swift's marriage?

[viper37]

Is it really necessary for the BBC world news page to have four different items about T.Swift's marriage?

What should they talk about?  Ukraine blowing up Russian refineries?  The war/genocide in Sudan?  Israel's attacks in Lebanon? The continuous war & peace in Iran?  Bah.  Hardly anything to write about.  Everyone loves fairy tales of billionaire princesses and their prince charming 

[Josquius]

I suppose NYC going mad for just a wedding is quite a news story.
And this *nice stuff* could bring in people to learn real news?

How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi

Interesting.  A bit overstated though.  The title is hyperbole.

Thatcher.
The answer is Thatcher.
The problem with Thatcherism is you eventually run out of other people's industries.

She fucked housing too. Amongst many other things.

Though yes. The 2010s should have been a huge opportunity.... Instead they blindly pursued stupid ideology to cut the state.

Or Thatcher saved the UK from imminent failure, Brexit and following decisions brought it back close to collapse.   In between, the Iraq war venture did not help at all.

I believe the UK was always built on the model of an Imperial state and has had trouble adjusting to living as a country post WWII.  France suffers the same problem.  Trade alliances replaces imperial colonies, but not everyone is bright enough to see it.  Germany was forced with a reckoning after WWII, but they struggle with integrating East-Germany that has always been subsidized by the USSR and now by West-Germany.  The gap was huge in 1990, and it's not closing quickly.  it's easily exploited by other nations.

She provided a short term boost in top level numbers off the back of an oil boom she was lucky to inherit and by selling off the state at knock down prices.

Brexit of course was deciding to just smash a hole in the bottom of an already flimsy boat. There were already deep problems of thatcherd inheritance by then - which is how Russia and Co were able to force it through.
Not to mention the modern brexit movement was a Thatcherite creation.

I think this Britain hasn't accepted the empire is gone thing is a bit over rated.
As Britain isn't just another country. We are quite the giant on an EU scale. We don't slot in as neatly as say Slovenia.
Trouble is the propeganda painted a picture completely divorced from reality where the EU was this all powerful monolith laying down rules where the UK had no say as opposed to a very British guided democratic institution.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

To the points already made, the Mississippi meme is played over and over again by those who want to try to discredit states that have actual services for the benefit of their citizens.

at's an (american) cope that allows them to handle the fact that so much of their state/society is shit. Other places have their own versions

[mongers]

Ironic if England win the world cup final, just a couple of days before Starmer leaves office and so he doesn't to have a political boost like Harold Wilson. 

[Sheilbh]

"Have you noticed how we only win the World Cup under a Labour government?" Although Wilson always said England losing in 1970 is why he lost to Heath (and given that it was a surprise and his 3-1 record against Heath otherwise, maybe he was right ).

Edit: And not just him - I think Barbara Castle was even more convinced it was the World Cup what lost it for Wilson. So we lost out on a solid decade of Wilsonism

[mongers]

"Have you noticed how we only win the World Cup under a Labour government?" Although Wilson always said England losing in 1970 is why he lost to Heath (and given that it was a surprise and his 3-1 record against Heath otherwise, maybe he was right ).

Edit: And not just him - I think Barbara Castle was even more convinced it was the World Cup what lost it for Wilson. So we lost out on a solid decade of Wilsonism

Thanks shelf, interesting background.