Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-26

[The Brain]

Zelenskyy was in Sweden today.

https://www.government.se/press-releases/2026/05/sweden-to-sell-gripen-ef-fighter-aircraft-to-ukraine/

Sweden to sell Gripen E/F fighter aircraft to Ukraine
Published 28 May 2026

Today, on Thursday 28 May, Ukraine announced its intention to purchase 20 Gripen E/F aircraft as a first step following the Letter of Intent signed by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 22 October 2025. In conjunction with the sale, Sweden will donate up to 16 JAS 39 Gripen C/D aircraft from the Swedish Armed Forces' current fleet, together with advanced ammunition. To replace these donated aircraft, new modern Gripen E/F aircraft will be procured for the Swedish Air Force, in addition to those previously ordered.

Fact box: Sweden's 22nd military support package

• Sale of Gripen E/F: Up to 20 aircraft.
• Donation of Gripen C/D: One division; up to 16 aircraft (including advanced ammunition, such as IRIS-T, AMRAAM and METEOR).
• Procurement of ammunition
• Procurement of electromagnetic warfare materiel
• Support to Ukraine's long-range capability
• Innovation initiative and industry collaboration
• Donation to multilateral funds and initiatives in support of Ukraine
• Support to civil defence   
• Support from the Swedish Defence Research Agency

Total value: SEK 25.2 billion

[Valmy]

I am not sure it as dire as you suggest, mainly because of the vibrant expat community that has developed.

Ukrainian birthrate is now the worst in Europe and tons of Ukrainians fled the country due to the war and, since the war has lasted so long, many are unlikely to return. And the situation was already very bad.

Then you have widespread economic destruction on an already fragile economy.

Before 2014 the future for Ukraine was already grim, I think it is one of the reasons for the desire to turn to the west in the first place. Now it is far worse. But maybe it can be turned around, it is just going to take a huge effort from Europe to do so. Simply having hope for a better future can do wonders.

[crazy canuck]

I am not sure it as dire as you suggest, mainly because of the vibrant expat community that has developed.

Ukrainian birthrate is now the worst in Europe and tons of Ukrainians fled the country due to the war and, since the war has lasted so long, many are unlikely to return. And the situation was already very bad.

Then you have widespread economic destruction on an already fragile economy.

Before 2014 the future for Ukraine was already grim, I think it is one of the reasons for the desire to turn to the west in the first place. Now it is far worse. But maybe it can be turned around, it is just going to take a huge effort from Europe to do so. Simply having hope for a better future can do wonders.

OK, now address the point I made in my post about the Expat community outside Ukraine that has a birth rate that is much higher and once normalcy returns to the country may well return.

[Valmy]

I am not sure it as dire as you suggest, mainly because of the vibrant expat community that has developed.

Ukrainian birthrate is now the worst in Europe and tons of Ukrainians fled the country due to the war and, since the war has lasted so long, many are unlikely to return. And the situation was already very bad.

Then you have widespread economic destruction on an already fragile economy.

Before 2014 the future for Ukraine was already grim, I think it is one of the reasons for the desire to turn to the west in the first place. Now it is far worse. But maybe it can be turned around, it is just going to take a huge effort from Europe to do so. Simply having hope for a better future can do wonders.

OK, now address the point I made in my post about the Expat community outside Ukraine that has a birth rate that is much higher and once normalcy returns to the country may well return.

I thought I did. I have my doubts many of those expats will return, due to the length of the war. But we will see.

[Tonitrus]

I think another unspoken danger is the potential for a "Ukraine at peace" but still on a very wary footing, vis-a-vis the threat of Russian renewal of hostilities, give a very high chance for right-wing leaning/reactionary governments when they resume having elections.

[Sheilbh]

I think another unspoken danger is the potential for a "Ukraine at peace" but still on a very wary footing, vis-a-vis the threat of Russian renewal of hostilities, give a very high chance for right-wing leaning/reactionary governments when they resume having elections.

Yeah I think especially if there's a sense of having been led on by/let down by Europe - I think that's where I think it could become quite combustible if you have a country that's made huge sacrifices, not achieved/been given what it thought it was due, plus still needing to maintain a war-ish footing. It needs to work.

[Tonitrus]

I think another unspoken danger is the potential for a "Ukraine at peace" but still on a very wary footing, vis-a-vis the threat of Russian renewal of hostilities, give a very high chance for right-wing leaning/reactionary governments when they resume having elections.

Yeah I think especially if there's a sense of having been led on by/let down by Europe - I think that's where I think it could become quite combustible if you have a country that's made huge sacrifices, not achieved/been given what it thought it was due, plus still needing to maintain a war-ish footing. It needs to work.

I think it is plausible, in Ukraine's unique case, to have a very right-wing but also very pro-EU government.

At the rate we are going, popular sentiment will be much more in favor of Europe than the US.  And of course certainly likely anti-Russia (which is against the grain for other right-wing leaning EU parties).

Will probably be very similar/aligned with Poland....right-wingish, anti-Russia, and much more concerned about its own solid defense structure.

[Sheilbh]

I think it is plausible, in Ukraine's unique case, to have a very right-wing but also very pro-EU government.

At the rate we are going, popular sentiment will be much more in favor of Europe than the US.  And of course certainly likely anti-Russia (which is against the grain for other right-wing leaning EU parties).

I agree with all of that and I'm not saying it's Eurosceptic or a Euro-style radical right or anything like that.

But there's been a lot of talk of very fast-track accession even some European politicians basically saying admit Ukraine now - and I don't think that'll happen. Some European leaders have been trying to dampen down expectations because I think there's a sense they've maybe got a bit too strong - I think Macron and Tusk have both tried to reset expectations.

And I think that's necessary because both sides will need a fair bit of time to reform and restructure before Ukraine is ready for entry - and if it slips into that situation of membership actually always being jam tomorrow (as happened to Turkiye in the 90s, or the Balkans post-war) after the promises and (from a Ukrainian perspective) the sacrifices, I think that could curdle quite seriously.

[Josquius]

Ukraines elections in future will be interesting considering how young people have been largely shielded and deaths have fallen on older men

[Jacob]

Will probably be very similar/aligned with Poland....right-wingish, anti-Russia, and much more concerned about its own solid defense structure.

Aligned with Poland is potentially in question, given the historical tension between the two countries. Right wing Poles and right wing Ukranians apparently have a non-trivial number of grievances with each other.

[Tonitrus]

My meaning was aligned in the sense of being anti-Russia and having similar/proactive defense postures...not so much buddy-buddy with each other in terms of mutual diplomatic relations.

[Jacob]

My meaning was aligned in the sense of being anti-Russia and having similar/proactive defense postures...not so much buddy-buddy with each other in terms of mutual diplomatic relations.

Makes sense.

[Sheilbh]

Aligned with Poland is potentially in question, given the historical tension between the two countries. Right wing Poles and right wing Ukranians apparently have a non-trivial number of grievances with each other.

Yeah and in fairness there are genuine issues - particularly around Ukraine ever joining the EU. I think basically every country would move to being a net contributor given how much poorer Ukraine is but it would lead to a huge shift in EU development spending out of Poland particularly - also Poland benefits a lot from current EU agriculture policies but those would not be plausible with an agricultural sector like Ukraine's.

None of it's impossible but I think there are problems that would need to be managed - or to be blunt about it there would be losers (and more in Poland than anywhere else) who you need to compensate or treat fairly (and be seen to treat fairly/help).

[Darth Wagtaros]

The comments from Russians in older Youtube videos ( 3-4 years ago) are funny.  The performance of the Russian army was amazing. No supply problems. Resistance was collapsing. Most Ukranians were Russians and welcomed the special action.   

Then there are some of the old Quora comments.  Tens of thousands of US special operations soldiers and marines dead in battle with superior Russian soldiers.  Hundreds of generals.  All covered up.  I guess it foreshadowed the new US presidency's habit of all news is fake news.

[Josquius]

I recall seeing a video by Paul warburg lately where he mentioned he has noticed a sharp increase in these kinds of comments on his recent videos.
He reckons it's a clear sign Russia knows the writing is on the wall so they're going into extra denial.

Related I still remember back in 2016. The brexit ref. An account on Facebook claiming to be local going on about how the EU was planning an EU army and you had to vote leave or you'd be conscripted to fight in the trenches on the eastern front. Obvious madness. Probably a bot.
But I remember thinking how out of touch with modern warfare it was. Why the hell would there be trenches on the eastern front....
It seems Russia knew deep down.