Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-26

[Sheilbh]

I read somewhere else that the Ukrainians can defeat 95% of the Shahed type drones with counter drones now. It's amazing and frightening what kind of technological progress a hot near peer conflict creates.

It's a terrifying thing about war as an engine of technological and often social progress.

On the frightening and amazing, I also think - which goes to the China thread - it emphasises the degree to which lithium ion batteries are (I suspect) the most important technology of the early twenty-first century. In every phone and laptop, every EV and a core part of drone technology enabling both Ukraine but also Iran. I think it's up there with internal combustion in transforming the energy base of our society. And overwhelmingly an area of Chinese strength but also arguably built on the world's dirtiest supply chain.

[Jacob]

It seems like official Russia is publicly acknowledging that defeating Ukraine is impossible. Steve Rosenberg, from Russia:

[Valmy]

It was obvious in 2023, but I guess thousands of their own men had to die just to make sure.

The EU has to save what is left of Ukraine once this is over. I just don't know if the EU still has the juice.

And I don't mean militarily, I mean politically and economically. Ukraine was already in a tough spot and now it seems likely to enter a death spiral.

[Grey Fox]

They can export a ton of military expertise now.

[Valmy]

They can export a ton of military expertise now.

Yep. Probably the best military around now. The Euros need to build their militaries using their expertise.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

They're not really acknowledging anything yet though. Just saying that it's not possible today, but later it should be.
That's not a change in mentality making it inevitable that the Russians will try again.
They need to be broken so that idea of conquest becomes impossible.

[crazy canuck]

It was obvious in 2023, but I guess thousands of their own men had to die just to make sure.

The EU has to save what is left of Ukraine once this is over. I just don't know if the EU still has the juice.

And I don't mean militarily, I mean politically and economically. Ukraine was already in a tough spot and now it seems likely to enter a death spiral.

What are you basing that comment on?

[Valmy]

It was obvious in 2023, but I guess thousands of their own men had to die just to make sure.

The EU has to save what is left of Ukraine once this is over. I just don't know if the EU still has the juice.

And I don't mean militarily, I mean politically and economically. Ukraine was already in a tough spot and now it seems likely to enter a death spiral.

What are you basing that comment on?

Their rapidly aging and shrinking population and bleak economic prospects. The same disease infecting most of Eastern Europe but Ukraine was one of the worst sufferers even before 2014. Over a decade of war has only made it worse.

In the past Ukraine was also incredibly corrupt. I presume a decade of an existential threat has made this better but I don't know for sure.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Iirc, Ukraine is now less corrupt than Russia. And on an upward trajectory,  whereas Russia is getting worse.

[crazy canuck]

It was obvious in 2023, but I guess thousands of their own men had to die just to make sure.

The EU has to save what is left of Ukraine once this is over. I just don't know if the EU still has the juice.

And I don't mean militarily, I mean politically and economically. Ukraine was already in a tough spot and now it seems likely to enter a death spiral.

What are you basing that comment on?

Their rapidly aging and shrinking population and bleak economic prospects. The same disease infecting most of Eastern Europe but Ukraine was one of the worst sufferers even before 2014. Over a decade of war has only made it worse.

In the past Ukraine was also incredibly corrupt. I presume a decade of an existential threat has made this better but I don't know for sure.

Yeah, things have changed dramatically.

[Valmy]

Yeah, things have changed dramatically.

Yeah. Gotten worse.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, things have changed dramatically.

Yeah. Gotten worse.

Where are you getting this from, your last post seemed to suggest that this is just your own thoughts based on your own knowledge. Do you have any evidence that corruption has gotten worse?

Everything I've read says that is has become markedly better than the highly corrupt system the Ukrainians had just before the Russians attempted to annex politically.

[Valmy]

Yeah, things have changed dramatically.

Yeah. Gotten worse.

Where are you getting this from, your last post seemed to suggest that this is just your own thoughts based on your own knowledge. Do you have any evidence that corruption has gotten worse?

Everything I've read says that is has become markedly better than the highly corrupt system the Ukrainians had just before the Russians attempted to annex politically.

Oh. No I meant the demographic and economic issues.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, things have changed dramatically.

Yeah. Gotten worse.

Where are you getting this from, your last post seemed to suggest that this is just your own thoughts based on your own knowledge. Do you have any evidence that corruption has gotten worse?

Everything I've read says that is has become markedly better than the highly corrupt system the Ukrainians had just before the Russians attempted to annex politically.

Oh. No I meant the demographic and economic issues.

I am not sure it as dire as you suggest, mainly because of the vibrant expat community that has developed.

[Sheilbh]

Iirc, Ukraine is now less corrupt than Russia. And on an upward trajectory,  whereas Russia is getting worse.

Yeah I mean there's still very significant governance and corruption issues - it is spoken of quietly by supportive states, but it has been an issue of concern (I think the Biden Administration especially were very worried about some of the networks at the top of the Ukrainian state). It is nowhere near the acquis on a lot of issues particularly around governance, rule of law etc.

Economically Ukraine will be broken and need huge amounts of aid to rebuild - I think that is doable by Europe (but expensive). The sheer level of physical destruction is immense. I think also the psychic and social costs of displaced people etc will be huge. Ironically and related to the corruption I think the Americans not being involved would actually be helpful because when Americans are involved in nation-building/re-building in recent years it's just a flood of money on such a scale that it almost can't help but produce/exacerbate corruption.

I think Ukraine's economy more broadly would be a challenge. It is significantly poorer than the rest of Europe - GDP per capita is about $6,000. The poorest EU member state is Romania with a GDP per capita of over $20,000. It is also a massive agricultural country. Agriculture is a less large part of the EU budget but it's still over 25% of EU spending. I think the EU as it is currently set up in relation to poorer member states and in relation to agriculture would need really significant reform for Ukraine. To be totally honest I'm not sure existing EU structures could work with Ukraine - I think it needs something like a new European constitution or certainly a new treaty to work. Certainly very significant European reform - I think it would be a two way process of Europe needing to adapt to welcome Ukraine and Ukraine needing to adapt to join.

I slightly worry that there's been a bit of leading on Ukraine about how easy all of this will be (and some member states - like the Dutch and the Poles have been flagging concerns more recently that basically the rhetoric has slightly overreached reality) - I think it is more than possible that it ends up in a situation like the Balkans or Turkiye but more combustible with very real resentments from Ukrainians. But on the other hand on a purely emotional level Ukrainians are the first people who've fought and died for the right to be European and I think that's really difficult to resist. I remember the scene of the EU flag being brought into the Rada and it's very powerful.