Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Well perhaps I do need to clarify "marbles"

I don't think you can make absolute and crystal clear bright lines between security policy, diplomacy, foreign policy, trade, economic policy, taxation, and economic regulation.  In fact, one of the aspects of the "Trump Effect" has been to blur and break down those distinctions.  It's in that sense that I mean EU membership necessarily puts some marbles in the EU basket.

Fair - but I think there can be a trap of putting too much emphasis on the moment of Brexit itself and not the previous 75 years or the subsequent ten. Brexit doesn't happen and the last ten years would also have been full of tensions and arguments and politics around the nature of Britain's relationship with Europe. We would not have put it to bed and just become good communautaire Europeans - much like the independence referendum didn't end Scottish nationalism or questions about the future of the union.

In a way I think the interesting thing, which is to the point of the UK not really seeing the EU as a security player, is looking at the "coalition of the willing" (it seriously needs a diferent name) which France and the UK are trying to cobble together. Because of the importance of Ukraine and the position of the US. I think we have a more European foreign policy than we ever did in the EU - when we were constantly trying to undermine Europe as an agent. Arguably in practical terms this is the most European Britain's foreign and defence policy has been since Suez: Britain and France working together militarily, unsure of and reliant on American attitudes to their adventure.

Edit: To be really, really puckish - I think there's actually an argument that Berlin and Paris are more able to push these E3 summits and stategies between France, Germany and Britain because Britain's not a member state. Within the EU it always becomes a question of then having to invite the President of the Commission - and if they're coming the President of the Council wants an invite - similarly Poland should be at the table, but if Tusk is there you probably have to invite Meloni and Sanchez. (FWIW I think it should be an E4 and Tusk should be at the table because I think it's not great to not have any CEE states involved and Poland's spending and seriousness on defence is very admirable ad important). I think that dynamic is part of the challenge for EU on a foreign and defence policy front (especially given unaninimity and leaders like Orban). Because I think the other counter-factual to Brexit Britain is the EU - and it has been a hugely important tool and body fo supporting Ukraine. But, even without moaning, "special relationship", veto-happy Brits it has not seen a leap forward in foreign and security policy....yet. Fingers crossed that happens.

[HVC]

UAE deems UK universities have too high a risk of Islamist indoctrination, cancels scholarships

[Crazy_Ivan80]

UAE deems UK universities have too high a risk of Islamist indoctrination, cancels scholarships

Muslim brotherhood influence, as expected. It's a plague on our houses, as the French have also reported.
But till there's people denying there's a problem.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Meanwhile,what is happening in that hellhole London, with KHAN!!! as mayor?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jan/12/london-homicide-rate-drops-to-lowest-in-more-than-a-decade

"In 2025, the Metropolitan police recorded 97 homicides in London, down from 153 in 2019, and down from 109 in 2024."

That is about 1 per 100k, excellent stats 

[Tamas]

Yes BUT the mayor is Muslim so that's automatically the end times.

[Tamas]

So now that Farage has signed too-corrupt-for-the-Tories Zahawi, the question begs itself: why is it attractive for Reform voters to have Reform morph into the post-2020 Tory Party? Haven't they already rejected this very same people?


Also I am finding it funny there's a "did he really do it" thing around Farage's schoolboy racist actions. Gee, I do wonder if somebody like FARAGE was really racist as a kid.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Apparently Bad Enoch wouldn't give him a peerage so he jumped ship 

I think jail time would be more appropriate than a peerage given his tax fiddles, but there it is. I took a look at the Daily Mail comments (I do it so that others don't have to) and there was a certain amount of concern among Reform types about getting all the Tory has-beens and rejects. Always hard to tell if those comments are real, Russian bots or garden variety AI drivel of course.

In other news according to the Guardian, 67% of people in a poll think that immigration is increasing even though it has recently fallen by more than 2/3 (admittedly from an unusually high preceding year) https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jan/10/two-thirds-of-uk-voters-wrongly-think-immigration-is-rising-poll-finds

[Tamas]

Wow: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jan/12/jewish-mps-visit-to-school-cancelled-after-concerns-raised-by-pro-palestine-group

[Sheilbh]

Wow: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jan/12/jewish-mps-visit-to-school-cancelled-after-concerns-raised-by-pro-palestine-group

I'd add the stuff from West Mids Police over the Tel Aviv fans. The Chief Constable won't resign, but should. I don't think Mahmood can fire him but she should increase the political pressure. It's absolutely unacceptable.

There is a very real problem here.

Edit: Incidentally more in this interview here:
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2025/dec/26/london-klezmer-dance-band-oi-va-voi-josh-breslaw-steve-levi-interview

[Sheilbh]

Meanwhile,what is happening in that hellhole London, with KHAN!!! as mayor?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jan/12/london-homicide-rate-drops-to-lowest-in-more-than-a-decade

"In 2025, the Metropolitan police recorded 97 homicides in London, down from 153 in 2019, and down from 109 in 2024."

That is about 1 per 100k, excellent stats 

Yeah - I find it really weird how the image of London as kind of a stabby nightmare has gone global so much on social meia. You see it a lot with Americans (and not just the mad right-wing ones). It's very weird because in terms of murder I think London is the safest large metropolis in the West.

I fully get there's a disconnect in the UK and London between the serious crime declining but (visible) low-level crime increasing creating a sense of disorder and being randomly at risk. But that seems totally distorted in international and internet perceptions.

Yes BUT the mayor is Muslim so that's automatically the end times.

I've mentioned before but there is a dangerous faction to the right of Reform coagulating. And they're really incensed that Reform's London Mayoral candidate is also a Muslim (Laila Cunningham, British-Egyptian and former Tory Councillor in Westminster).

In their party conference speeches Badenoch and Mahmood both explicitly called out a form of "ethno-nationalism" re-emerging on the far-right online. When you poll the British public we're talking opinions that are basically as fringe as moon landing conspiracies but they're having an impact on discourse.

So now that Farage has signed too-corrupt-for-the-Tories Zahawi, the question begs itself: why is it attractive for Reform voters to have Reform morph into the post-2020 Tory Party? Haven't they already rejected this very same people?

Yeah I agree I think that's a real risk for Reform. I'd add that the Tories have confirmed that Zahawi kept asking for a peerage and was rejected. So the Tories were able to brief this which is pretty robust - but also fair

Nadhim asked for a peerage several times. Given he was sacked for his dodgy tax affairs, this was never going to happen. His defection tells you everything you need to know about Reform being a repository for disgraced politicians.

(I'd add there's a very real bump in Badenoch's polling recently - which is interesting. I always thought she had the better strategy than Jenrick and we're seeing it but still feels far, far too soon for them to have another go.)

[mongers]

Meanwhile,what is happening in that hellhole London, with KHAN!!! as mayor?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jan/12/london-homicide-rate-drops-to-lowest-in-more-than-a-decade

"In 2025, the Metropolitan police recorded 97 homicides in London, down from 153 in 2019, and down from 109 in 2024."

That is about 1 per 100k, excellent stats 

Yeah - I find it really weird how the image of London as kind of a stabby nightmare has gone global so much on social meia. You see it a lot with Americans (and not just the mad right-wing ones). It's very weird because in terms of murder I think London is the safest large metropolis in the West.

I fully get there's a disconnect in the UK and London between the serious crime declining but (visible) low-level crime increasing creating a sense of disorder and being randomly at risk. But that seems totally distorted in international and internet perceptions.

Yes BUT the mayor is Muslim so that's automatically the end times.

I've mentioned before but there is a dangerous faction to the right of Reform coagulating. And they're really incensed that Reform's London Mayoral candidate is also a Muslim (Laila Cunningham, British-Egyptian and former Tory Councillor in Westminster).

In their party conference speeches Badenoch and Mahmood both explicitly called out a form of "ethno-nationalism" re-emerging on the far-right online. When you poll the British public we're talking opinions that are basically as fringe as moon landing conspiracies but they're having an impact on discourse.

So now that Farage has signed too-corrupt-for-the-Tories Zahawi, the question begs itself: why is it attractive for Reform voters to have Reform morph into the post-2020 Tory Party? Haven't they already rejected this very same people?

Yeah I agree I think that's a real risk for Reform. I'd add that the Tories have confirmed that Zahawi kept asking for a peerage and was rejected. So the Tories were able to brief this which is pretty robust - but also fair

Nadhim asked for a peerage several times. Given he was sacked for his dodgy tax affairs, this was never going to happen. His defection tells you everything you need to know about Reform being a repository for disgraced politicians.

(I'd add there's a very real bump in Badenoch's polling recently - which is interesting. I always thought she had the better strategy than Jenrick and we're seeing it but still feels far, far too soon for them to have another go.)

One mitigating factor is that London hospital trauma care and first responders are getting Very good and stabilising and saving more of the seriously injured by knifives.

[Sheilbh]

One mitigating factor is that London hospital trauma care and first responders are getting Very good and stabilising and saving more of the seriously injured by knifives.

Yes - and knife crime is up fairly significantly from where it was a decade ago (and I think Khan has some responsibility for this). But as I say for all of that in comparison with other big cities, London is very, very safe.

[Razgovory]

Wow: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jan/12/jewish-mps-visit-to-school-cancelled-after-concerns-raised-by-pro-palestine-group

It amazes me that those ultras got a MP elected in Britain.

[Sheilbh]

Mentioned before about China's proposed new embassy - their biggest in Europe.

This has been the source of a lot of controversy as it keeps going back and forth over where it will get planning permission. The local council which is in a very Muslim borough do not want it (and have proposed naming surrounding streets things like Urumqi Road, Hong Kong Street, Tibet Lane etc) but the Chinese state very much wants it. This is then reflected in UK government where basically the Foreign Office and the Treasury want it and the security services are very, very concerned and opposed.

One of the reasons it's been controversial is that the proposed plan includes a number of "secret" rooms where it's not clear what their purpose is and this is something Angela Rayner pushed for clarification on. The unredacted plans have now leaked and stunningly the secret basement room (with a lot of heat extraction) is one metre away from very sensitive communication cables (in particular from the City so lots of financial information but actually apparently more important). If only there were some clue what it might be for


Anyway it seems very likely that it will get approval. The Chinese have been very strong in pushing for this. So there was an issue around a Chinese steel company who bought Britain's remaining steel mill - they then planned to shut it down (this caused a weekend sitting of parliament and legislation within 24 hours to block it). It has since been reported that that Chinese steel company apparently made clear they'd be open to keeping the mill open if the Chinese embassy was approved.

However apparently the Chinese state have made it clear that if Starmer wants a visit to Beijing early this year he needs to sign off the plans and the rerpoting is that he will

Separately I see that the government is now saying digital IDs won't be mandatory for right to work proof. I think that was its one purpose that they talked about - another one of these issues where they've announced something. It faces push back and they march all the loyal cabinet ministers and MPs up the hill burning through political capital and then u-turn. There's not much that Starmer and Boris Johnson have in common - but that bad habit is one of them.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Maybe you better stop having a government and request a viceroy. Whether from Beijing or Washington is up to you. Maybe have them alternate