The Off Topic Topic

[Josquius]

I am thinking if doing my part and having 3 kids. But the world is so designed around 2. Having 3 or heaven forbid more is damn hard what with number of seats in cars, benefits, and I'm sure there's even rules in places of two kids go free with an adult.



In other news.... I had no idea the Thai-Cambodia border dispute was so fascinating. Assuming you're fascinated by maps as I am.
Seems it all comes down to a difference in projection.
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/asean/40051324


Something where a new thread would be nice....

[Admiral Yi]

Yo Hillary, I've been surveying folks here about the chia pet football haircut, and I'm getting some varied responses.  Modern mullet is one.  I just asked a bro at the gas station and he said something taper fade.  The llama is not lighting up the board here.

[DGuller]

I don't think any European country is showing a birthrate that is sustainable, considering pricks like me are getting old and might want to retire at say, 89 or 90 and live the life of Riley for two months before we say our farewells.

Catholic Italy was leading the charge of not letting men have their creampie for a good while, now I think all Scandinavian countries are up there challenging for the OECD Money Shot Prize.

"We make money, not babies".

Yeah - it's happening everywhere too. See declines in Latin America wildly outpacing projections:


Similar in Asia and while Africa is starting from a higher starting rate, the decline there is also significantly faster than projected.

I think it's really important but I'm not sure it's fed through into the way people understand the world - which is still shaped by lots of texts about overpopulation. And I'm not sure if there's been much thinking of what this world will look like.

It does seem like family planning is not compatible with sustainable reproduction.  The more people micromanage their procreation rather than just roll with what happens, the farther away we'll go from replacement rate.

[HVC]

Yo Hillary, I've been surveying folks here about the chia pet football haircut, and I'm getting some varied responses.  Modern mullet is one.  I just asked a bro at the gas station and he said something taper fade.  The llama is not lighting up the board here.

I've googled and found llama cut... but I've also found more alpaca cut. So either it's more local and not wide spread, or I did the old man thing and hear alpaca cut and remembered it as llama cut

[HVC]

Is replacement necessary? We've had robotics "stealing" jobs for decades, and now looks like ai will do the same and more. If the need for workers goes down why make more workers?


*edit* if demand is the problem pay the remaining people more so they can consume more.

Of course my standard caveat remains, I know nothing about this stuff

[Jacob]

Most conversations about the falling fertility rates seem to centre around socio-economic explanations. You hear things like "it's too expensive to have children," "easier access to birth control and abortion", "women in the labour force", "higher education leads to fewer children", "uncertainty about the future", and "internet disconnnection + porn makes it harder for people to partner up".

Mostly I think people take something they're unhappy about ("price of housing" or "I can't get dates on the internet") and project that as the explanation, but I do wonder how good our explanations are and how confident we are in them. My impression is that most of them are based on correlation, rather than showing actual causation (and how would you show it).

Separately, I wonder if one day we'll identify some sort of material contributor to it as well... I don't know, maybe the prevalence of microplastics everywhere impacts fertility, or too much estrogen makes its way from biochemistry into sperm counts, driving down fertility.

I'm sure it's a complex interplay of multiple factors driving the global decline in fertility, but how well do we understand it beyond "whatever I dislike is to blame"?

[Jacob]

And separately, how well do we understand the likely outcome of this? Does anyone have any good readings they can share on the topic?

Right now there's all this worry about joblessness, but if we're lining up to experience a continuous decline in population maybe people will become more valuable (unless automation and AI really takes off)?

And what about the economy? We know, generally, it'll be bad. But how will it play out?

[Sheilbh]

To zoom out at a global level I think the single biggest driver of falling fertility rates is the ability of women to control their reproduction. So particularly female literacy rates and access to birth control which seems to have  direct and immediate impact.

But as you say I think there are lots of other factors - and I do think there may be some environmental ones like microplastics. I don't know on the wider stuff and I think there's something to all of those other points and possibilities and they will all be part of it. But they don't all apply everywhere universally. I think the Anglophone world I think housing is a factor with people forming households much, much later. I think dating apps are really important in ways we've not fully worked out or thought through (my low-key heresy is I think algorithmic matching and dating might be more significant politically than social media, as well as often a bit bad for everyone from all conversations I've had). I think expense is a factor as is some degree of hopelessness (particularly on the left) about the future.

But I'm not sure how much those factors collectively explain the rapidly falling rate in, parts of India or Africa. So there's possibly lots of factors that are possibly interacting in slightly different combinations around the world producing broadly the same result. And it's not clear to me that there is a policy "answer" on this. Which does make me wonder if there is something environmental - like microplastics.

Similarly I'd love to read something good on the impact especially as I think at a basic discourse level the overpopulation stuff is still more significant so I think it may be an important but not fully thought through corrective.

[celedhring]

One explanation I have heard of that sounds interesting to me is that the digital age has greatly reduced the emotional toll of solitude, which is one of (and I stress one) the drivers that moves people to seek a stable relationship and ultimately have children.

The amount of people in my social circles that remains single (myself included) in their 40s is pretty large actually. Although my circles aren't probably that representative (urban, high educated, liberal professionals).

[Josquius]

Also. Cars.

[Tonitrus]

Also. Cars.

I though it was said that through at least the '40s-'80s, cars would help with fertility rates. 

Or maybe just in 'Merica, where cars were big enough.

[DGuller]

I wonder how many species would reproduce at replacement rate if you gave them full control over reproduction and made them rational about it?  It seems like reproduction is one of those decisions which almost requires you to make an impulsive and emotional decision.

[Tamas]

Also. Cars.

 

[HVC]

Also. Cars.

This is either a very funny in-joke, or pathological, and I can't decide which

[Admiral Yi]

Also. Cars.

No Thatcher?