Hungarian Politics

[Josquius]

Would the EU's reaction to Hungary completely sliding into a non-democracy be completely toothless and performative, or has the collapse of the United States convinced them to take things a little more seriously?

I've asked before and was told they can't kick Hungary out of the EU let alone NATO. Which seems very short sighted. Kind of understand the nato thing, don't want to be able to jettison someone just before Russia attacks.

The EU needs to be completely reformed. With more sensible rules.
But with all else going on that's sadly not a priority right now.

[Josquius]

Spotted in the wild today

https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-fidesz-party-hungary-russia-democracy-transparency-public-life-civil-society/

So all the decent Hungarians have left the country now right?
Wonder what the endgame is.

[Tamas]

This is a huge deal there as you can imagine. Not sure if the article mentions it but there are thing in that bill such as debating the primacy of birth sex (over selected social gender) equals endangering Hungary's sovereignty and other ridiculous but very threatening things.

Meanwhile the government drums are beating over Ukraine having the country "under attack" with Peter Magyar and his Tisza Party their agents.

Some polls are showing Fidesz way behind Tisza, I have little doubt that this bill will be made law (perhaps in a slightly lighter form to make people relieved and drop their guard) and used in anger if polls refuse to improve.

[Tamas]

One sign of Orban preparing for potential defeat (or rather, calming his vassals that he is making precautions) is that his long time ally and permanent Chief Prosecutor (thus guardian of all Fidesz) has resigned so the so-called President can name his successor (who by wonderful coincidence happens to be the previous one's right hand man). Why does it matter? Beacuse chief prosecutors (thanks to Orbán's law changes in the past) are chosen for 9 years and Parliament needs an absolute majority to change this and/or firw him

[Tamas]

Orban had a brain freeze on a Brussels press conference when asked the question what would convince him to allow EU membership negotiations with Ukraine (he has made Ukrainians the new muslims/gays i.e. lethal enemy to fight).

Hopes/speculation of stroke abound on opposition-minded forums but I think they are overblowing it. 

[Tamas]

Seems to be a massive turnout on Budapest Pride today.

It was picked up by Fidesz as one chance to distance Peter Magyar from the nationalistic right that is abandoning Fidesz for Magyar in ever-increasing numbers. Namely, they have made a law which was aimed at banning the Pride march but as a bonus can be freely used to ban any demonstrations, really. The thinking clearly was that either Magyar joins those protesting against the ban and loses the support of the rural bigots who are needed to win an election nowadays, or he refuses to do so and then urban liberals turn away from him. Well, he was extremely careful (should I say, Starmerian) in keeping a careful distance from the matter (calling it a distraction) and it worked because the urban liberals are willing to put up with an Orban-light just to get rid of Orban.

So anyways, the police was very trigger-happy in refusing to allow any shape and form of a Pride march, going as far as releasing a press release when one of the Pride organisers posted some theoretical plans/options on Facebook. Essentially they banned it before it'd even officially be submitted.

Mayor of Budapest came to the (clever) rescue - he has announced a "Budapesti Buszkeseg" city event for the day (it translates to Budapest Pride), which, being a council-organised cultural event and not a public demonstration, it doesn't fall under the new law. Or at least that's his and the organiser's position. And Orban retreated, the police is letting it happen.

So, a massive defeat for Orban I think. If he just ignores the event it would have gathered the usual crowd (marchers and a few counter-marchers) and it would have been forgotten the days before and after the event. Now it has becomes this big thing.

[garbon]

 

[Syt]

[Legbiter]

One sign of Orban preparing for potential defeat (or rather, calming his vassals that he is making precautions) is that his long time ally and permanent Chief Prosecutor (thus guardian of all Fidesz) has resigned so the so-called President can name his successor (who by wonderful coincidence happens to be the previous one's right hand man). Why does it matter? Beacuse chief prosecutors (thanks to Orbán's law changes in the past) are chosen for 9 years and Parliament needs an absolute majority to change this and/or firw him

When is the next general election?

[Valmy]

Next general election is next Spring it looks like.

[Tamas]

Yes.

If Hungary had a proper democracy with rule of law there would be no doubt at this stage that Orban loses, the momentum is just too palpable.

But just like Netanyahu (and how Trump's cronies in 3 years), Orban and his people have done too much to safely let go of power. If they just let Peter Magyar's Tisza Party run and win and then they just hand over the reigns, I'll be convinced they have made a deal in the background for their safety. Or everyone who matters backstabbing Orban to switch teams (Magyar being ex-Fidesz with extensive personal connections to their leadership tier, this is far from impossible I think).

But more likely this is turning nasty in some way. Well, nastier, I should say.

[Tamas]

Orban had a brain freeze on a Brussels press conference when asked the question what would convince him to allow EU membership negotiations with Ukraine (he has made Ukrainians the new muslims/gays i.e. lethal enemy to fight).

Hopes/speculation of stroke abound on opposition-minded forums but I think they are overblowing it. 

Just realised the link didn't work 

Here it is: https://youtu.be/LlFRMFqG2U0?t=5

[celedhring]

Oh, just saw that Barcelona's mayor (who's gay) marched in Budapest, too. Good on him.

[Josquius]

Progress in Hungary facing consequences?

https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-suspend-hungary-eu-voting-right/

[HVC]

In favour of rapping Hungary on the knuckles (although I sincerely doubt it'll ever happen) but Ukraine membership in euro is way, way too premature. After all the shit Hungarians done surprised that's the straw for Denmark.