Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

Antal "Goebbels" Rogán, Orbán's most important lieutenant gets on US sanctions list:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/07/sanctions-antal-rogan-hungarian-minister-corruption

[Tamas]

It's getting to the point where I genuinely have no idea whether Orban is still just caught in his ever-escalating bullishitting spiral or at this stage now actually believes the imaginary world he has created for his followers.

On some event of a pro-government "think thank" he was saying things like "The second phase of the operation to conquer Brussels is now officially on" (the first phase was the EU election, btw) and "in a few hours [after Trump's inaguration] even the sun will shine differently on Brussels". "Big patriotic faction in the EU parliament, different President in the US, the big offensive can begin"

[HVC]

There only one way the EU can react... give Hungary even more money

[Sheilbh]

He's right, isn't he? So far they can't work together mainly because Le Pen and Meloni hate each other. But the two far/radical right groups in the European parliament are the third and fourth largest groups. Collectively they're ahead of the social democrats.

VdL went for a right/left/liberal coalition in the Parliament (sacrificing the Greens) and there are still majorities that can exclude the far and radical right. But they're narrow and VdL had considered bringing Meloni's group in. It is increasingly likely that in the next 5-10 years they will need to be brought into European politics, in the way the Greens were in the 2000s and 2010s.

I'd add that Meloni's party already have one of the six Vice-Presidents of the Commission (in charge of cohesion policy - so spending on poorer regions of Europe). He's admittedly from the traditional right in Italy (Christian Democrat to Berlusconi to Meloni) rather than the post-fascist right, but they'll be exercising power - most likely spending power over regional cohesion funds (not a bad posting and one that Italy will obviously have a particular interest in).

I think the emergence of a far/radical right European Union is the most likely scenario at the minute particularly if Le Pen wins in 2027 and elsewhere the mainstream right (still the traditional political family holding best maintaining their position) think the answer is more civilisationism, more Fortress Europe, less European Green Deal etc.

Orban is winning at the European level.

Edit: e.g. an extreme example but Meloni at the weekend - "Rome should be the capital of the European Union, because the capital of the European Union cannot be the most comfortable place to set up offices, but the place that represents its millennial identity." We're transitioning from a purely Eurosceptic nationalist far and radical right to an increasingly European (even just in cross-border political cooperation), identarian right.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Rome can have it. Should reduce Brussels back to the provincial shithole it is

[Duque de Bragança]

Edit: e.g. an extreme example but Meloni at the weekend - "Rome should be the capital of the European Union, because the capital of the European Union cannot be the most comfortable place to set up offices, but the place that represents its millennial identity." We're transitioning from a purely Eurosceptic nationalist far and radical right to an increasingly European (even just in cross-border political cooperation), identarian right.

New Roman Empire?

[Tamas]

Hard to believe but Orban managed to be even more obnoxious and disgusting. After a meeting with Fico in Bratislava, he effectively threatened Ukraine that (in the context of Trump's inauguration) now "we are the mainstream" and if Ukraine "continues to be aggressive and hostile" toward Hungary "it can end badly for them" because "we may get annoyed and take steps against them"

He is this most disgusting type of person who hides behind his stronger friend and plays the bully from there.

I can't wait to see him left out to hang by Trump.

[crazy canuck]

Is Orban an expansionist or just a toady?

[HVC]

How's Peter Magyar doing? Losing steam or still a potential threat?

[Sheilbh]

Is Orban an expansionist or just a toady?

I could be wrong but I think Trianon is still a bit of a sore for many in Hungary, not just Orban.

[Syt]

I can't wait to see him left out to hang by Trump.

Metaphorically, or in cartoon drawings only, of course. As a means of expressing opinions freely and uncensored.

[Tamas]

Is Orban an expansionist or just a toady?

I could be wrong but I think Trianon is still a bit of a sore for many in Hungary, not just Orban.

Interesting question, seems like border revision is off the list of PRESSING PUBLIC ISSUES for even the far-right although I have little doubt that within those circles it's still a topic. But it defo doesn't dominate like it used to in the 90s and early 00s.

I think if Orban managed to grab the ex-Hungarian territories from Ukraine (Karpatalja, or "Lower Carpathians" as we call it), an overwhelming amount of population would be scared, and a small minority ecstatic. Thing is, it's the least logical piece of ex-Hungarian land to go after - as I understand there are no clearly Hungarian-dominated areas there like in Slovakia or Transylvania. There is NO way it can be managed peacefully especially not when you consider which country you'd be grabbing it from. Absolute madness even to consider.


HOWEVER, Orban has been 100% focusing on foreign affairs for a while now and letting his house burn while he plays the international statesman. Thinking about this, I am now slightly worried he is basing his plans on a promise from Putin that he'd arrange a division of Ukraine with Trump where Hungary gets a bit. Very unlikely, but could explain his behaviour lately.

[Tamas]

How's Peter Magyar doing? Losing steam or still a potential threat?

Well ahead in polls now. He is yet to build an actual national organisation though.

[Sheilbh]

HOWEVER, Orban has been 100% focusing on foreign affairs for a while now and letting his house burn while he plays the international statesman. Thinking about this, I am now slightly worried he is basing his plans on a promise from Putin that he'd arrange a division of Ukraine with Trump where Hungary gets a bit. Very unlikely, but could explain his behaviour lately.

I'm not sure if it applies to Orban, but that is a trend in British PMs.

Basically they come in fired up and focused on domestic policy and normally view foreign policy as not very interesting, a bit esoteric and best left to the professionals. As they spend more time in office they tend to get more interested in and focused on foreign policy. In part I think they spend their political capital on domestic politics while they're more or less dictators on foreign policy.

But I also think there's a psychological thing (a little bit Davos-brained) of working on reform of local government is just very parochial and narrow when you're going to summits with other very important people. You get to talk about big global issues and themes not, say, changes to the school inspection system. Similarly domestic politics is contentious while in foreign policy everyone is very diplomatic. I think it fits with an expanding ego/sense of self.

(I think it's normally the immediate stage before long-serving PMs go kind of mad and have to be removed )

[Neil]

International politics does have certain advantages for PMs as well.  Because they have little to no power to actually effect change in the broader questions of global politics, they don't actually have to do anything, but they get the broad approval of people who believe that 'something should be done'.  It's the political equivalent of changing your Facebook picture in support of a cause.  It gives them a boost of public acclaim at no cost. 

By comparison, domestic politics, with its plethora of stakeholders on all kinds of sides and actual power and consequences, is very hard.