Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

He'll probably still be rewarded behind the scenes for being the guinea pig to test the waters.

Yep

[Tamas]

Orban is hosting a big EU and NATO meeting. In a football stadium.

[Tamas]

And also state of things in Hungary: Orban had his opening speech of the conference, state TV was showing it live. Orban closed by handing over to Zelensky (who is there). The state TV stopped their coverage. 

[Tamas]

Oh and almost forgot: the Fidesz founder / MEP who was busted sliding down a gutter in Brussels a few years ago wearing nothing but a backpack full of drugs, fleeing a lockdown gay orgy? He is being lifted back into the fold with some semi-serious advisory role.

[Tamas]

So things been happening.

I mentioned this Peter Magyar. who was a mid-level Fidesz functionary (and minister spouse until the pedophile pardon scandal), and who now has very clearly become the leader of the opposition.

I don't want to spend much time on the why - he projects the image of the Fidesz of circa 2006. This kind of West-leaning nationalism that Fidesz spent a LOT of time ingraining the populace with before Orban was made into a Russian asset is clearly popular. Plus he seems to be dealing much better with the kind of tabloid attacks that destroyed several previous unification candidates of the opposition. He evades and counter-attacks with a seemingly very good sense of rhythm, plus he has the sort of arrogance that you build up when you spend your whole life in Fidesz circles. He is definitely not my kind of leader but a lot of people either like him, or has accepted him as the necessary evil to get rid of Orban.

So much so, that his party (which exists more on paper than in reality, at least when it comes to the national level) now has caught up to and maybe even slightly leading Fidesz in the polls. This hasn't happened to Fidesz since 2006.

Clearly this cannot stand and a lot of effort is being spent on dragging him down to the dirt and destroying him both politically and personally. Incidentally it also paints a rather disgusting picture of people in and around Fidesz.

So, as a recap, Magyar divorced his then-minister wife a couple of years ago. When she got disgraced in the pedo scandal, Magyar launched his political rise by releasing a taped conversation between the two of them where the wife explains how Orban's main man (a sort of Goebbels-Beria hybrid), Antal Rogan and his team are allowed early viewings of prosecution papers and do their censorship on them.

Earlier during the year Magyar was appearing with some girlfriend. They broke up a few months ago. Couple of weeks ago, Magyar did an in-promptu Sunday press conference to tell that he is aware the ex-GF has made several secret audio recordings of him and has been trying to sell them, and Fidesz had a plan to start releasing them from the next day. He also said they are going to be a mix of genuine and AI-generated conversations. Plus he claimed his secret service contacts told him that there has been significant effort of surveilance against him. A very smart move I think to take the initiative. The release of these recordings by "anonymus people" have indeed started.

I am not sure how much they'll damage him. They paint a picture of an arrogant narcissistic prick but I don't think that's going to surprise anyone. It's just stuff like him berating supporters and his MEPs in situations where he was exhausted and/or frustrated.

But he is still very good at waging tabloid warfare. The latest recording was I think (never listened to any of them) some sort of an argument between him and the ex-GF and according to commenters, it stemmed from him trying to support the girl even after their breakup because of some reason, so hardly a particularly damning thing.

The juicy part is, in his Facebook post to react to the recording, Magyar explained pretty much the above, and closed the post with: "at least I do not have a secret illegitimate child from her, isn't that right Mr Prime Minister?"

So that's what I mean. Not exactly pretty politics but smart: true or not on Orban having a secret bastard somewhere, now that's what everyone is talking about, not the tapes.

[HVC]

So, next step is tripping and falling out a window?

[Valmy]

The juicy part is, in his Facebook post to react to the recording, Magyar explained pretty much the above, and closed the post with: "at least I do not have a secret illegitimate child from her, isn't that right Mr Prime Minister?"

So that's what I mean. Not exactly pretty politics but smart: true or not on Orban having a secret bastard somewhere, now that's what everyone is talking about, not the tapes.

 

I am glad the big issues are what is driving things.

This dude would just be the new strong man if he were to win I guess? I guess the only difference is he would be more pro-Western...at least theoretically.

[Duque de Bragança]

The juicy part is, in his Facebook post to react to the recording, Magyar explained pretty much the above, and closed the post with: "at least I do not have a secret illegitimate child from her, isn't that right Mr Prime Minister?"

So that's what I mean. Not exactly pretty politics but smart: true or not on Orban having a secret bastard somewhere, now that's what everyone is talking about, not the tapes.

 

I am glad the big issues are what is driving things.

This dude would just be the new strong man if he were to win I guess? I guess the only difference is he would be more pro-Western...at least theoretically.

He may be a bastard, but he's our bastard.   

[Tamas]

This dude would just be the new strong man if he were to win I guess? I guess the only difference is he would be more pro-Western...at least theoretically.

Yeah he is very much the archetype arrogant Fidesz prick, and in his early days this year he couldn't really hide his disdain for EU institutions for example. But a key promise of him is introducing a term limit for prime ministers, so there is that.

I think unless he does fly out of a window he will be Orban's replacement. These audio recording scandals seem to be completely ineffective. I expect the oligarchy defecting to him eventually, but it's a big question on when and how.

[Tamas]

I suspect the next phase of the boiling of the frog is now discretely(?) underway or at least the waters are being tested to push things further.

In the past when an MP would do some infringing on the law they'd demonstratively renounce their immunity from prosecution (there is a limited one as an MP but I can't remember the details of where that stops), but then it'd never amount to anything.

Not anymore.

MP Andras Fekete-Gyor, former leader of now effectively defunct Momentum, has received a one year jail sentence suspended for two years, after which Parliament moved swiftly to kick him out of his parliamentary seat.  His crime? Years ago there were protests (minor compared to other more political countries, fairly major compared to the apathy of Hungary) against changes made to the employment/work regulation law. During those demonstrations F-GY threw a smoke "grenade" (used at parties and such) in front of the riot police line.

F-GY led Momentum when they burst onto the political scene many years ago, rallying against the idea of a Budapest olympics. They started gathering signatures for a referendum on it, but and when it became clear the populace was behind them, Orban quickly retreated and the Olympics application was withdrawn. For a sports-nut like Orban this had to hurt, not to mention the insane amounts of money that could have been stolen with ease.

As an aside, Momentum blew their chances when once in Parliament they quickly embroiled in petty and pointless negotiations and rivalries with the other tiny opposition parties. F-GY personally destroyed himself a couple of years ago when during an interview (on communist Youtube channel turned into de facto Hungarian public service TV, Partizan) he was utterly unprepared and incapable of giving straight answers. Watching that was a painful experience.

Anyways, the second case is one of the opposition MPs who de-escalated a big demonstration (against the same law) in front of the state TV HQ by going inside and demanding that the protesters' demands are featured in the news. Although MPs can't force what goes on TV, obviously, they had the right to enter and review the premises as MPs, the latter of which was denied and this culminated in them being thrown out by force. This and the lack of mass uproar by the population was the final confirmation for me that democracy is lost.

He hasn't received a jail sentence, but a moderate amount of fine for "assault" and "bodily harm" when he swiped the foot of one of the security guards (who, again, were busy illegally removing a member of Parliament from the state TV premises). The terrible incident was captured on film:






Thirdly, an opposition MP got into a squabble with the local (Fidesz) council regarding his home. According to the council, he did submit a renovation plan for his house, which was approved, but instead of renovating, the MP demolished the old house and built a new one. So now, they insist, the house (where he and his family lives) must be destroyed. The council may or may not be right, but petty revenge on an opposition MP is quite clear.


So yeah, I do wonder if these things are being done to test whether there is any public pushback. This can be useful to know before things heat up further going into the 2026 elections.

[Tamas]

Peter Magyar's Tisza party now leads in polls over Fidesz among people certain to vote - 47% vs 36%.

This is rather incredible considering the party doesn't really exist yet. They were planning to start their great recruitment drive just before the audio recordings failed-scandal launched, which made them delay it.

To Magyar's credit though, he is working his ass off, touring the country relentlessly as if the election was just about to happen. He managed to make Orban concede that "some" orphanages need additional funding after he ran a series of showing up at these institutions with his MEP credentials and gaining entry to video absolutely appalling circumstances. And doing like a whistle-stop tour of the country. He'll even stop by my small hometown tomorrow.

I continue to have a low opinion of him (he was a loyal Orban foot soldier from 2006 to 2023 after all) but it has to be said that this is marked difference from other opposition parties and leaders who'd activate themselves on a nationa level X months before an election, otherwise being content with appearing on news every once in a while and embroiled in local politics and intra-opposition intriques.

[celedhring]

Next election is on spring 2026? So not that far actually.

That Magyar guy doesn't sound superstella but hey, anything that might weaken Orban's grip and power network is a good thing at this point.

[Tamas]

Next election is on spring 2026? So not that far actually.

That Magyar guy doesn't sound superstella but hey, anything that might weaken Orban's grip and power network is a good thing at this point.

Yeah, whatever at least forces a power struggle and a temporary need to adhere to EU standards is a good thing at this stage. And I am hoping if Orban and his oligarchs dig in on the Russia/China support axis, Magyar and oligarchs defecting to him will have no choice but to suck up to the EU.

[Barrister]

Next election is on spring 2026? So not that far actually.

That Magyar guy doesn't sound superstella but hey, anything that might weaken Orban's grip and power network is a good thing at this point.

"Don't make the perfect the enemy of the good".

[Tamas]

Peter Magyar stunt the last couple of months was to use his MEP credentials to gain access to orphanages to video the appalling state they are in. In some of them the staff or Fidesz politicans refused him entry. At one the "media director" of Fidesz (a former football hooligan as I understand) used the chance to try and provoke an altercation, getting into his face and demeaning him. Magyar didn't handle it very good (shouldn't have engaged at all IMHO) but he did resist hitting the guy so that's something.

Anyways, with Christmas coming he and his staff have switched to bringing gifts to orphanages. Today one of the state secretaries (these are below ministers, so fairly low-ranking) went to prevent him from entering, citing there had been no pre-arranged agreement to drop these off. Magyar told him ok let's sign the agreement, which the Fidesz scum refused.

I am having trouble seeing how this is good PR for Fidesz even with their fans. Literally blocking orphans from having a better Christmas.