Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

On Facebook Orban (well, his staff I guess) wrote that Georgia has made the right decision, avoiding to be turned into the next Ukraine.

 

[Syt]

More on that:

https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-congratulates-georgia-election-victory-georgian-dream-russia-ukraine-war/

Orbán congratulates Georgia on not 'becoming a second Ukraine'
Hungarian prime minister visits Tbilisi to embrace Russia-friendly Georgian Dream after disputed election.

TBILISI — Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán on Tuesday backed Georgia's ruling party after its disputed election victory, during an inflammatory speech on a hasty visit to Tbilisi.

After opposition allegations that the vote was rigged and critical reports from international observers overshadowed the Russian-leaning Georgian Dream's win, Orbán arrived to congratulate the party for not letting Georgia become "a second Ukraine."

"We know what war means, we know how important peace is," said Orbán. "Hungary is a peace-loving country in Europe, and we greatly value your efforts, as you are on the side of peace too," he continued. "Nobody wants their own country to be destroyed and involved in war. Therefore, we understand the Georgian people's decision to choose in favor of freedom."

He added: "I also want to congratulate the Georgian government on that while enforcing pro-European politics, you didn't allow becoming a second Ukraine. We greatly value the PM's devotion to this idea, and I'm confident Georgia will be well-suited to join the EU by the end of this decade."

Orbán was echoing Georgian Dream's preelection narrative that Western countries wanted to drag Georgia into Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine. The right-wing Hungarian leader has positioned himself as a European ally to Putin, meeting the Kremlin chief in Moscow this summer and slow-walking EU sanctions against Russia and military aid for Ukraine.

The Georgian ruling party had positioned itself as a guarantor of peace, warning that opposition parties were the puppets of a so-called global war party.

Saturday's vote in Georgia — widely regarded as an "existential" election, decisive in determining whether the country's foreign policy tilts toward the EU or Russia — was marred by violence. International observer missions including the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights have expressed concerns over vote-buying.

Iulian Bulai, head of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe delegation, expressed concerns about the electoral conditions "given the cases of vote-buying, the widespread climate of pressure, and party-organized intimidation before and during the elections."

But Orbán said he had reviewed Hungarian observers' reports, which were "positive in all aspects."

"[The report] described free and fair elections, and I would like to congratulate the Georgian PM on this," Orbán said.

"Elections were free and fair, but dispute will continue in Europe. You should take it seriously, because it happens. ... When conservative parties win, such disputes always follow. Such is European politics — if liberals win, they say it's democratic, but if conservatives win, it's not," he added.

Despite his statements, the U.S. and some EU member countries have called for a thorough investigation into alleged violations at the polls.

Orbán's assessment of the elections as free and fair comes at a turbulent time for Georgian Dream, which is desperately seeking global recognition of the election results.

So far, only a few leaders have congratulated Georgian Dream. Besides the Hungarian prime minister, the list includes the heads of Georgia's immediate neighbors: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

Thousands of protesters took to the streets peacefully Monday after Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili — an opponent of the ruling party who has described the Georgian Dream victory as "a Russian special operation" — called on them to defend their votes.

[Tamas]

The way Orban and his "foreign minister" talked about it (and I think that might have been lost in translation as its more strongly implied in the original) made it sound like Russia was going to intervene if the pro-Russia forces lost the election and thus Georgia made the right choice to go with the option that avoided Russian retribution.

[Josquius]

Apparently very curiously the Georgian leader was scoring 99% of the vote in out of the way minority filled areas far from any election observers.

And Russia was going to intervene... Would have been curious to see them try. I imagine they're quite busy.

Sigh. Europe really needs to get moving on doing something about Orban. They seem determined to never learn.

[Sheilbh]

Sigh. Europe really needs to get moving on doing something about Orban. They seem determined to never learn.

Alternately Europe is Orbanifying - he was part of the round table with VdL on migration, with Meloni, Mitsotakis, Schoof and others. As I say Italy is pushing for normalisation of relations with Assad as the first step to deporting Syrians. Plus the Commission suppressing the human rights investigation it had commissioned into abuses by Tunisia as part of the (Meloni-brokered) migration deal. The Council has also endorsed Poland's decision to basically reject all migrants who arrive via Belarus - which was a decision by good, centrist dad Donald Tusk not the bad PiS.

In many of those examples some legitimate points but a clear direction of travel. I think we are seeing a clear drift to very hard-right stances on immigration and a civilisational turn of a clear line of European v non-European.

I'd expect the next drift to be on environment/climate policy. I think Ukraine/Russia is far further down the list because it divides the far right in a way migration and climate policy doesn't - but if I had to guess, the way it'll probably arrive as a challenge to the current consensus will be through energy and de-industrialisation - and appeals to Europe's self-image as engaged in a "peace" project.

[Tamas]

I don't know how much Orban will let them "orbanify" on migration. Hungary has already torpedoed an attempt or two to organise handling of refugees better. Orban isn't REALLY interested in solving migration or any other real or perceived European problems. He wants to maintain them. This is a key difference to, say, Meloni.

[Sheilbh]

Well it depends where you're looking. I agree in terms of handling migration within Europe, Orban has no interest in solving anything - and is very much on the other side than Meloni and Mitsotakis (who is mainstream right - but Greece's record on immigration is horrendous and he is the EU leader, including Orban, who has presided over the steepest fall in his country's press freedom rating).

But on the ever increasing fortress Europe, paying states around the Med to prevent people from getting to Europe and deporting people, there's lots of common ground. And it is increasingly the European middle ground. Lot's of policies that, 10 years ago, were very identified with Orban (and maybe Denmark) are now becoming EU wide policy - especially with the extraordinary growth of Frontex.

[Tamas]

I am not disputing that switch, but it's not happening because Orban swayed the continent. It is responses evolving in light of reality on the ground and politics at home.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah and I'm not arguing that Orban swayed the continent. More that he's been an inspiration for far-right leaders, both in winning and not really facing consequences, and, in some cases depending on their movement, a source of lessons of what not to do or what fights not to pick.

I think many of those lessons have been applied successfully - on migration and European "identity" he now has very many allies at the head of other EU governments. I think the same is happening (especially after the last European election) on issues around climate. On Russia/Ukraine it's more divided but even there, with Slovenia, Slovakia and (possibly, soon) Austria, there's a fairly coherent, not insignificant bloc.

So it's not that Orban has convinced Europe - but that Europe is becoming more Hungarian/Orbanish.

Obviously I think the big one that Orban and the rest of the far-right are holding out for is France's election in 2027 which has the potential to be transformative... (From a strictly UK perspective I can't help but think the nightmare of Labour government - but really any British government - would be Trump in the US and Le Pen in France...)

[HVC]

The west should build a wall around Russia and its satellites. A wall might be too expensive, so perhaps a curtain? Has to be made from Something strong, though, like iron.

[Tamas]

The Foreign Minister () is now in Belarus on the meeting of the Eurasian Security Council or whatever you call this gathering of Russian vassals.

He told the press that "we are not the only ones in Europe who think it is time to return to a Eurasian cooperation, but we are the only ones brave enough to talk about it".

[Tamas]

Recently the Swedish prime minister called Orban a Russian agent (or something to that effect) which is obviously true. Orban now reacted saying that the Swedish PM was ordered to do so by Washington.

I'd like to think that Orban is more loud and obvious in his pro-Russia stance due to pressure from Putin who sees time running out for him. His sudden rush to Georgia seems to be a fairly obvious collaboration in the election being cheated away - go there to be paraded around like President of the EU to legitimise the result.

[Tamas]

The recently growing bravery by Orban henchmen to piss on the 1956 revolution is getting astounding. As I mentioned for the past several years it's been an awkward even for them since it's celebrates Hungarian rather dying in a hopeless fight than staying Russian vassals.

But they are switching from awkward silence to attacks on the revolution. I mentioned Advisor Orban's opinion that based on 1956, this current government wouldn't have resisted a Russian invasion like Ukraine did.

Now one of the leaders of the Sovereignty Protection Office (charged with hackling and maybe criminally charging NGOs, opposition politicans/activists), posted on Facebook that the heroes of 1956 weren't heroes but fools, they should have realised the odds they were facing. He did this on 4th November, the anniversary when the Russian intervention in '56 started, destroying big parts of Budapest.

This and Advisor Orban's comment would had absolutely destroyed the public career of anyone even just 10 years ago. Now it'll pass without much reaction, I expect.

[Tamas]

Hah, I was wrong, this was too much honesty about their regime at this stage, he has been fired.

[HVC]

He'll probably still be rewarded behind the scenes for being the guinea pig to test the waters.