Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[crazy canuck]

From the NYTimes

Mr. Vance told reporters in India that under the American proposal, "we're going to freeze the territorial lines at some level close to where they are today."

"The current lines, or somewhere close to them, is where you're ultimately, I think, going to draw the new lines in the conflict," he added. "Now, of course, that means the Ukrainians and the Russians are both going to have to give up some of the territory they currently own."

Not sure why anyone would take this guy seriously.  Not sure why the Trumpists continue to allow him a prominent platform within the administration.

I wonder if it is so Trump has someone to take the fall when there is no peace.

[The Minsky Moment]

The Vance proposal is eminently sensible.

Only appeasement can guarantee Peace in Our Time.

[PJL]

The Vance proposal is eminently sensible.

Only appeasement can guarantee Peace in Our Time.

Disagree - this is surrender not appeasement.

[Jacob]

So apparently the "US peace plan" is to give Russia everything it wants (territory, no NATO for Ukraine) and Ukraine gets a ceasefire in return. Or else the United States withdraws from the talks. Not sure if that's a big loss at this point.

Probably just to claim Ukraine "does not want peace" to give cover for disengagement that is driven by the convictions of Trump and his ilk.

The question is what the US will do when they "withdraw from the talks". If the US drops sanctions on Russia, that's going to make a difference.

[crazy canuck]

So apparently the "US peace plan" is to give Russia everything it wants (territory, no NATO for Ukraine) and Ukraine gets a ceasefire in return. Or else the United States withdraws from the talks. Not sure if that's a big loss at this point.

Probably just to claim Ukraine "does not want peace" to give cover for disengagement that is driven by the convictions of Trump and his ilk.

The question is what the US will do when they "withdraw from the talks". If the US drops sanctions on Russia, that's going to make a difference.

Yes, everything would then depend on what the Europeans do

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I guess we can put Churchill's proverb to rest. The Americans are not going to do the right thing.

Question now is: what will the Europeans do...

[HVC]

The bare minimum to still allow them to feel superior is my guess.

I'd wage the US has to check out of the world stage (or perhaps more likely side with Russia) for longer than one term before Europe takes it seriously. And even then I don't know how long it'll take them to ramp up defense spending and capabilities.

[Jacob]

The bare minimum to still allow them to feel superior is my guess.

I'd wage the US has to check out of the world stage (or perhaps more likely side with Russia) for longer than one term before Europe takes it seriously. And even then I don't know how long it'll take them to ramp up defense spending and capabilities.

My impression is that Europe - or at least parts of it - is taking US checking out seriously and are ramping up. They are, however, doing it at the European pace which is not necessarily satisfactory. And they are also doing what they can to not push the US over the precipice any earlier than the pace Trump is setting. That is, they're still maintaining the "we're allies" line of reasoning until such a time as it is clearly and irrevocably rendered impossible.

I'd like faster and more, for sure, but I think the situation is taken very seriously and being acted on.

[Jacob]

The scenario I think is likely - though I'm no expert here - is that the US in the not too distant future:

• Stops providing military and financial aid to Ukraine.
• Removes its sanctions and normalizes trade and exchanges with Russia.
• Removes any pressure on 3rd countries to sanction Russia.

Any thoughts on what the repercussions would be for Russia and for Ukraine?

A second scenario - still possible, but probably a bit further out - is that the US will actively apply pressure on 3rd countries and the EU to stop do the same (i.e. drop sanctions on Russia and stop aid to Ukraine). If that happens, what tools does the US have available to induce other countries to follow suit? And how will that play out?

[HVC]

Fair enough Jake, what I see as not taking it seriously might just be the pace at which actions happen in Europe.

As for US sanctions those were mainly financial/end to money laundering, yes? Revenue sanctions were mostly on the Euro side? Or am I misunderstanding/misremembering.

[The Minsky Moment]

Disagree - this is surrender not appeasement.

It's not surrender if the President and VP actively want Russia to win. It's betrayal and treachery.

[Jacob]

It's not surrender if the President and VP actively want Russia to win. It's betrayal and treachery.

Yeah, it's switching sides.

[Zanza]

So apparently the "US peace plan" is to give Russia everything it wants (territory, no NATO for Ukraine) and Ukraine gets a ceasefire in return. Or else the United States withdraws from the talks. Not sure if that's a big loss at this point.

Probably just to claim Ukraine "does not want peace" to give cover for disengagement that is driven by the convictions of Trump and his ilk.

The question is what the US will do when they "withdraw from the talks". If the US drops sanctions on Russia, that's going to make a difference.

True. That seems to be what Trump wants though to make deals with Putin. Sad.

[viper37]

If that happens, what tools does the US have available to induce other countries to follow suit?

Tariffs.
When in doubt, raise tariffs.

[Zanza]

The Trumpian idiots believing that they have a deal with Putin must be surprised to learn that Russia now actually claims the four full oblasts after all, not just the currently occupied area.