Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[crazy canuck]

They have it all wrong. The problem with wind farms is that we already have enough wind in the wild.  Wasting valuable resources, and government subsidies, on producing farmed wind is sheer folly.

[mongers]

[Tamas]

Just so I can prepare, is Britain going to be colder or warmer because of run away global warming? I think it is supposed to get colder because the Atlantic will be too warm for the Gulf stream to.. stream, so I guess that implies it won't be warm enough to replace the Gulf stream on its own right? Maybe if we open even more coal plants we could aim for that?

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, the irony, as most of the planet becomes too hot, Western Europe will become frigid in the Winter.  South Ireland, which can seem a lot like Bermuda because of the warm current hitting its shores, will have a dramatic change.

[mongers]

Just so I can prepare, is Britain going to be colder or warmer because of run away global warming? I think it is supposed to get colder because the Atlantic will be too warm for the Gulf stream to.. stream, so I guess that implies it won't be warm enough to replace the Gulf stream on its own right? Maybe if we open even more coal plants we could aim for that?

I think the jury will be out on that for a while, though there is now some serious modelling going on:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn938ze4yyeo

[Richard Hakluyt]

Rees-Mogg will be pleased, there hasn't been a frost fair for centuries.

[Duque de Bragança]

Yeah, the irony, as most of the planet becomes too hot, Western Europe will become frigid in the Winter.  South Ireland, which can seem a lot like Bermuda because of the warm current hitting its shores, will have a dramatic change.

Hibernia will deserve its Latin name, at last!

[mongers]

Rees-Mogg will be pleased, there hasn't been a frost fair for centuries.

 

And judging by that map, I can foresee Norgy leading some desperate Viking raiding parties.

[Tamas]

So if the average temperature over here goes down 1.5c but will have gone up like 2-3c before doing so, that sounds like a win.  the island will be REALLY overpopulated.

[Iormlund]

That would make our summers slightly less unbearable.

Was hoping for a larger effect, though.

[Valmy]

It would incredibly unfair if the rest of the world suffers immensely from global warming but Europe just happens to come out great.

[Josquius]

So... The world is fucked isn't it?

Things were looking hopeful. Slowly inching towards progress. Maybe we would avoid the worst outcomes and keep damage under control...

But then, bam, in comes fascist America with a policy which is just short of being actively pro climate change itself, and completely upending the world such that nobody can spend on "luxuries" like tackling climate change.

[Tamas]

Yeah, hope was nice while it lasted.

[Syt]

Apparently the EPA head has suggestions for gutting personnel to less than half. And suggested reviewing the agency's assumption of treating carbon emissions as a main driver for climate change. So yeah.

I guess accelerationists will be happy at least.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, hope was nice while it lasted.

To a point - I know I bang on about it but US emissions are about a third of China's. Hope or not is basically not about what happens in the US (or Europe) but Beijing and Delhi.

I think we're still stuck in a 1990s understanding and analysis and reporting on climate where the West are still history's main characters.

At a government/policy level Trump I didn't make much of a difference on the pace of decarbonisation in the US. I don't think it'll have much of an impact this time - not least because I think, having run against it to an extent, Republicans' districts (and Red States) will benefit a fair bit from the IRA money:


I think more significant, possibly, is that big capital is stepping back pretty comprehensively from ambitious net zero goals - basically because it is looking more expensive and less profitable than anticipated when they made those commitments plans (and they've also been open to a little legal and political jeopardy in the US). So you've seen a lot of banks and big asset managers row back their commitments, but also just yesterday BP made a big pivot having set an ambitious plan to become a "net zero energy company", they are now acknowledging they'll still be an oil and gas company for a while - activist shareholders are still frustrated that this "reset" doesn't go far or fast enough.

I think in part it's a bit "vibe shift" (which is the most extraordinary thing from Trump winning again) - like companies tearing up their DEI policies. But also I've always suspected that there is a limit to the capitalist/finance driven energy transition - and I think we're hitting that because it has cost more and there haven't been the profits that were expected.

I think the West is hitting the bit where the easy, low-hanging bit of energy transition has largely been done - the next bit is costly, it's intimately involved in people's lives so the allocation of costs, sense of fairness and politics will matter a lot in a way that wasn't the case in transitioning away from coal. But having said that even if we manage to do everything right (and we should try) - that will matter less than whether China has hit peak emissions and whether India can find a way to grow with less energy and carbon intensity than China did. But on the news we should be hearing a lot more about Modi and Xi and Tata etc.

Edit: Another example is the biggest polluters at a corporate level - overwhelmingly the top 20 for example are based in the Global South and largely state owned. As I say I think there's a psychological hurdle (it's not unlike the wider end of the end of history stuff) in moving from a story centred on us (governments, activists, companies) to one that's actually global and primarily shaped by others. It's the most vivid and important example of the wider trend that the West (especially Europe right now) is not an agent of history at this point (with the rest of the world having to live with decisions made here) but instead is on the receiving end.