Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Syt]

Main takeaway, I guess: Vienna is becoming miserable in summer unless there's more measures to cool down the city (i.e. less concrete everywhere, more greenery .... ). Or they need to make it easier to install A/Cs in older buildings without needing landlord's and every neighbor's approval.

[Josquius]

Main takeaway, I guess: Vienna is becoming miserable in summer unless there's more measures to cool down the city (i.e. less concrete everywhere, more greenery .... ). Or they need to make it easier to install A/Cs in older buildings without needing landlord's and every neighbor's approval.

I can imagine.
Lausanne is pretty horrid in summer. Everyone says it wasn't always so. A fair few people I know there plan their holidays specifically to head north away from the heat in August.

I wonder why it is Vienna in particular always seems to be especially hot though.

[Zanza]

Wind and solar have risen to 'new highs' in the EU overtaking fossil fuels for the first time ever

Renewables have broken electricity-generating records in the EU this year, according to the European Commission.

Newly published data has revealed that in the first six months of 2024, half of the bloc's electricity came from renewable sources, outperforming fossil fuels.

The European Commission's 'State of the Energy Union' is an annual stocktake of the bloc's progress towards energy and climate targets.

It says that wind power has now overtaken gas as the EU's second-largest source of electricity behind nuclear power for the first time. The EU also set another record with 56 GW of new solar energy installed in 2023, beating the previous record of 40 GW from 2022.

Energy security and stability of prices are also a major focus in this year's report.

The share of Russian gas in EU imports fell from 45 per cent in 2021 to 18 per cent by June of this year. This was partially due to an increase in imports from countries like Norway and the US but a reduction in demand for gas also played a role.

Between August 2022 and May 2024, demand dropped 18 per cent or 138 billion cubic metres exceeding the voluntary target of 15 per cent.

The State of the Energy Union also found that prices are more stable and remain significantly below what they were during the peak of the energy crisis in 2022.

https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/09/12/wind-and-solar-have-risen-to-new-highs-in-the-eu-overtaking-fossil-fuels-for-the-first-tim

Good news 

[Valmy]

The more Europe can continue in this direction they less they have to give any fucks about Russia and the Middle East...oh and maybe help humanity avoid extinction as well.

[Zanza]

I feel not being dependent on the war criminal Putin and on Prince Bonesaw should be motivation enough even if you don't believe in climate change. But somehow, liking foreign authoritarians and climate change denial seem a common shared political belief.

[Sheilbh]

It is - saw a really interesting long-thread which I now can't find on the need for flexibilty though.

So hour-by-hour EU energy from fossil fuels swings from 15% at the low end to 50% (from last year):


Europe has good wind for winter and good solar for summer so it's not really an issue of managing seasonal change. Instead it's week-by-week flexibility that's a bit of a problem. I feel like more interconnectors with, say, Morocco and storage needs to be a big focus.

I also think demand is part of the story - and I think there it plays a mixed role. Demand for gas has declined since the invasion (which has good and bad sides), but demand for electricity also down by over 10% and I suspect that won't last. The next stage of energy transition is going to be the electrifying of things like vehicles, heating, homes. Lower demand helps but we actually (I think quite soon) need to start seeing rapidly increasing demand for electricity - and making sure that electricity is clean.

It's the various transitions moving at once - needing to move the power basis of our world from fossil fuels to electricity with all the increased demand that implies (I think estimates vary a lot but from what I've seen it is at least doubling current generation), while simultaneously decarbonising electricity supply.

The more Europe can continue in this direction they less they have to give any fucks about Russia and the Middle East...oh and maybe help humanity avoid extinction as well.

This is magical thinking, I'm afraid. Russia is in Europe. The Middle East is Europe's near neighbourhood (and we import solar power from the wider MENA region).

Energy transition will help America in disentangling itself from Old World involvements (from a selfishly European perspective, in that sense, American climate action might be a bit of a double edged sword :ph4r:). But Europe's in Eurasia We will always have to care because they are us.

[Syt]

https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-surge-again-new-record-2023

Greenhouse gas concentrations surge again to new record in 2023

28 October 2024
Greenhouse gas levels surged to a new record in 2023, committing the planet to rising temperatures for many years to come, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than any time experienced during human existence, rising by more than 10% in just two decades.

Key messages

• CO2 concentrations have increased 11.4 % in just 20 years
• Long lifetime of CO2 in atmosphere locks in future temperature increase
• El Niño and vegetation fires fuel surge in later part of 2023
• Effectiveness of carbon sinks like forests cannot be taken for granted
• Improved understanding of carbon-climate feedbacks is needed

In the course of 2023, large vegetation fire CO2 emissions and a possible reduction in carbon absorption by forests combined with stubbornly high fossil fuel CO2 emissions from human and industrial activities to drive the increase, according to the WMO's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

The globally-averaged surface concentration of CO2 reached 420.0 parts per million (ppm), methane 1 934 parts per billion and nitrous oxide 336.9 parts per billion (ppb) in 2023. These values are 151%, 265% and 125% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels, it said. These are calculated on the basis of the long-term observations within the Global Atmosphere Watch network of monitoring stations.

"Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers. We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

The 2023 increase of CO2 in the atmosphere was higher than that of 2022, although lower than that of the three years before that. The annual increase of 2.3 ppm marked the 12th consecutive year with an increase greater than 2 ppm.

The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin is one of WMO's flagship publications released to inform the UN Climate Change conference, COP, and is now in its 20th issue. During that time the CO2 level has increased by 11.4 % (42.9 ppm) above the level of 377.1 ppm recorded in 2004 by WMO's Global Atmosphere Watch network of monitoring stations.

The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports on greenhouse gas concentrations, rather than on emission levels. Analysis of data shows that just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere. Just over one quarter are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30% by land ecosystems – although there is considerable year-to-year variability in this because of naturally occurring phenomena like El Niño and La Niña.

The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin complements the UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap report. Both were published ahead of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. 

During El Niño years, greenhouse gas levels tend to rise because drier vegetation and forest fires reduce the efficiency of land carbon sinks.

"The Bulletin warns that we face a potential vicious cycle. Natural climate variability plays a big role in carbon cycle. But in the near future, climate change itself could cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases. Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming. These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.

From 1990 to 2023, radiative forcing – the warming effect on our climate - by long-lived greenhouse gases increased by 51.5%, with CO2 accounting for about 81% of this increase, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Greenhouse Gas Index cited in the WMO Bulletin.

As long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will continue accumulating in the atmosphere leading to global temperature rise. Given the extremely long life of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature level already observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.

The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now.



Globally averaged CO2 concentration (a) and its growth rate (b) from 1984 to 2023. Increases in successive annual means are shown as the shaded columns in (b). The red line in (a) is the monthly mean with the seasonal variation removed; the blue dots and blue line in (a) depict the monthly averages.



Globally averaged CH4 concentration (a) and its growth rate (b) from 1984 to 2023. Increases in successive annual means are shown as the shaded columns in (b). The red line in (a) is the monthly mean with the seasonal variation removed; the blue dots and blue line in (a) depict the monthly averages.



Globally averaged N2O concentration (a) and its growth rate (b) from 1984 to 2023. Increases in successive annual means are shown as the shaded columns in (b). The red line in (a) is the monthly mean with the seasonal variation removed; in this plot, the red line overlaps the blue dots and blue line that depict the monthly averages.

Carbon Dioxide
CO2 is the single most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere related to human activities, accounting for approximately 64% of the warming effect on the climate, mainly because of fossil fuel combustion and cement production.

The 2023 increase of CO2 in the atmosphere was higher than that of 2022, although lower than that of the three years before that. The annual increase of 2.3 ppm marked the 12th consecutive year with an increase greater than 2 ppm, while the increase within the year 2023 was one of the largest (2.8 ppm).

The long-term CO2  increase is due to fossil fuel combustion but there are year-to-year variations due to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which impacts photosynthetic CO2 uptake, respiratory release, and fires. In May 2023, Earth transitioned from a 3-year long La Niña to El Niño.

In 2023, global fire carbon emissions were 16 % above average, seventh amongst all fire seasons since 2003. Canada experienced its worst wildfire season on record. Australia experienced its driest three-month period on record in 2023 from August to October, with severe bushfires.

Methane
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas which remains in the atmosphere for about a decade.

Methane accounts for about 16% of the warming effect of long-lived greenhouse gases. Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources (for example, wetlands and termites), and about 60% comes from anthropogenic sources (for example, ruminants, rice agriculture, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning).

The growth in atmospheric methane in 2023 was smaller than 2022 – but was record high for the five-year period. Detailed analysis indicates an emission increase from sources such as wetlands and agriculture, which could at least partly be due to on-going climate feedback that further increases greenhouse gas emissions from the natural systems.

Nitrous Oxide
Nitrous Oxide is both a powerful greenhouse gas and ozone depleting chemical. It accounts for about 6% of the radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases.

N2O is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural sources (approximately 60%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 40%), including oceans, soils, biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes.

For nitrous oxide, the increase from 2022 to 2023 was lower than that observed from 2021 to 2022, which was the highest increase observed in our modern time record.

[crazy canuck]

Renewable fuels are about to get a big development boost.  F1 cars must run on non fossil fuel starting in 2026.  And the f1 teams are trying to figure out the best way to do that.


The other interesting regulation is the teams are prohibited from using arable land to grow anything to create their fuels.

[HVC]

Valencia flood death toll up to 150. Scary images.

[Syt]

Yeah, really bad. Was there only a few weeks ago, it's a lovely city.

[Josquius]

I recently learned about a company called Ripple Energy https://rippleenergy.com/

It sounds pretty interesting. Rather than spending money on putting solar panels on your roof, instead invest a share in a full-scale green energy project and get your energy from there.
Seems like a very logical way to approach things.

Alas the problem in the UK isn't so much a lack of money for building and rather our system's hostility to actually building anything.

Nonetheless, if that gets sorted... I'm seriously tempted. Seems like it could be a good way to go overall. Anyone encountered similar elsewhere?

[The Brain]

Won't you get your energy from the same mix as everyone else? Or will you have a separate grid?

[celedhring]

Valencia flood death toll up to 150. Scary images.

Apparently it's expected that the final toll will reach "several hundred" 

[crazy canuck]

 

[Josquius]

Won't you get your energy from the same mix as everyone else? Or will you have a separate grid?

Yeah, as I understand it you obviously don't get 'your' energy. The wind farm you invested in could be clear across the country. But your supplier buys this energy which means your usage is a chunk they don't buy from non-renewable sources.