Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Maladict]

It is always best to show all your cards to the opposing player after all.

The Art of the Deal!

[Duque de Bragança]

It is always best to show all your cards to the opposing player after all.

The Art of the Deal!

I really should have read the Art of the Deal. 

[The Minsky Moment]

It is always best to show all your cards to the opposing player after all.

Even that could be made to work, but taking out all the Aces and face cards from your hand at the same time . . .

[The Minsky Moment]

BTW I only read the Guardian and it's a bit hard to follow the Ukraine war there as they have much more focus on which Gaza street is seeing fighting in a given hour (exaggerating), but wasn't Russian poised for some big breakthrough since... May?

Just one more Big Push should do it.

[Tonitrus]

BTW I only read the Guardian and it's a bit hard to follow the Ukraine war there as they have much more focus on which Gaza street is seeing fighting in a given hour (exaggerating), but wasn't Russian poised for some big breakthrough since... May?

Not making any predictions...but not unusual (and then eastern front of WW2 could be an example of this) for the war along a large front to be a grind...until things reach a tipping point and the balloon collapses rapidly.

[Jacob]

My expectation is that Trump's goal is to surrender Ukraine to Russia, and the "negotiation" is just part of the general charade.

I think the Trumpist administration sees the EU as an enemy that should be dismantled and weakened, and they see Russia as an ally in that regard.

I expect their preferred outcome for both Trump and Putin is for the EU to fracture, with individual oligarch-nationalist governments in place as clients to either Russia (roughly in the former Warsaw pact area) or the US (in the Soviet-era NATO area). If individual (West or North) European states retain liberal democracies, that's not that big a deal as they can be easily bullied or manipulated due to the power differential. But over time, both Putin and Musk are counting on Orbanesque anti-democrats gaining power in individual European countries and then not relinquishing it.

Which is to say, Trump is not playing his hand poorly. He's pursuing the results he want, while throwing up FUD both out of habit and because it serves his and his coterie's objectives.

[Norgy]

I see Hegseth has told his, what do you call people sitting in the same room when it is not an AA meeting, colleagues? Well, never mind, apparently he told the defence secretaries of the United States, uhm, what do you call countries you have military arrangements with but still want to fuck over and annex, allies? Well, never mind, Hegseth told them that Ukraine has "unrealistic" goals.

Coming from a man with a Jerusalem cross and Deus Vult tattoo, that's a harsh indictment of one's goals.

Not recovering lost territory will in all likelihood result in years of irredentism and radicalism.
But never mind.
I hope the Belgians lock up their daughters. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

My expectation is that Trump's goal is to surrender Ukraine to Russia, and the "negotiation" is just part of the general charade.

I think the Trumpist administration sees the EU as an enemy that should be dismantled and weakened, and they see Russia as an ally in that regard.

I expect their preferred outcome for both Trump and Putin is for the EU to fracture, with individual oligarch-nationalist governments in place as clients to either Russia (roughly in the former Warsaw pact area) or the US (in the Soviet-era NATO area). If individual (West or North) European states retain liberal democracies, that's not that big a deal as they can be easily bullied or manipulated due to the power differential. But over time, both Putin and Musk are counting on Orbanesque anti-democrats gaining power in individual European countries and then not relinquishing it.

Which is to say, Trump is not playing his hand poorly. He's pursuing the results he want, while throwing up FUD both out of habit and because it serves his and his coterie's objectives.

indeed, that's a plausible playbook.

[mongers]

Who here in this thread a few weeks back said they could foresee taking a tough/robust stance on Ukraine?

[Sheilbh]

Who here in this thread a few weeks back said they could foresee taking a tough/robust stance on Ukraine?

I think I did.

Basically what I just said earlier - I've no doubt Trump wants to do a "deal". The big obstacle to that will be Russia's war goals and sense they're winning so they won't want to talk. I think that creates space for Ukrainian leaders to go along with Trump and there's the possibility that US support actually increase/is less restricted than under Biden if they perceive Russia as the obstacle.

Also European defence spending increased a lot under Trump's first term. He's now pushing for 5% defence spending, which won't happen, but even getting from under 2% to around 3.5% (which is where I think Europe will do a "deal" with Trump) is objectively bad for Putin.

[mongers]

Who here in this thread a few weeks back said they could foresee taking a tough/robust stance on Ukraine?

I think I did.

Basically what I just said earlier - I've no doubt Trump wants to do a "deal". The big obstacle to that will be Russia's war goals and sense they're winning so they won't want to talk. I think that creates space for Ukrainian leaders to go along with Trump and there's the possibility that US support actually increase/is less restricted than under Biden if they perceive Russia as the obstacle.

Also European defence spending increased a lot under Trump's first term. He's now pushing for 5% defence spending, which won't happen, but even getting from under 2% to around 3.5% (which is where I think Europe will do a "deal" with Trump) is objectively bad for Putin.

Thanks Shelf, I think we'll find out over the next few weeks one way or the other.

[crazy canuck]

And so the sellout begins

President Trump said on Wednesday that he had a "lengthy and highly productive phone call" with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, characterizing it as the beginning of a negotiation to end the war in Ukraine.

It was the first confirmed conversation between the two men during Mr. Trump's second term, coming as Mr. Trump has made clear to advisers that finding a U.S.-backed end to war that Russia began is a priority for his administration.

"We discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects," Mr. Trump wrote in a social media post.

"We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together," Mr. Trump added. "But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine." (An estimated several hundred thousand deaths have occurred in the conflict, not millions.)

The U.S. president said he planned to inform President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine that both countries planned to "have our respective teams start negotiations immediately." Mr. Zelensky's office later said that the Ukrainian president spoke with Mr. Trump for an hour.

However, Mr. Trump did not say in his social media post how Mr. Zelensky would factor into the negotiations that he and Mr. Putin were setting in motion. Mr. Trump has long been skeptical of Ukraine and has never warmed to Mr. Zelensky.

The Kremlin's spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told reporters that Mr. Putin's call with Mr. Trump lasted almost an hour and a half.

He said that the two men agreed to hold a personal meeting and that Mr. Putin invited Mr. Trump to visit Moscow, something that Mr. Trump also alluded to in his social media post. Mr. Putin agreed with Mr. Trump that "the time has come for our countries to work together," Mr. Peskov said.

On Ukraine, Mr. Putin told Mr. Trump of "the need to eliminate the root causes of the conflict," Mr. Peskov said. That was a sign that Mr. Putin would not accept a simple cease-fire in Ukraine and would seek broader concessions from Ukraine and the West before he stops fighting.

The Ukrainians appear to be facing an effort in which they have little leverage. The call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump came on the same day that the U.S. secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, speaking at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, said that it was an "unrealistic" objective for Ukraine to restore its borders as they were before 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. Mr. Hegseth added that the U.S. does not support Ukraine's desire to join NATO as part of a realistic peace plan.

He also suggested that Europe needed to assume a greater role in its own defense, echoing a point that Mr. Trump has made for many years.

For Mr. Putin, the call was a major milestone, marking the collapse of Western efforts to isolate him diplomatically after he invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago. Ever since Mr. Trump's re-election in November, the Russian president has heaped praise on Mr. Trump, underlining the Kremlin's hope that the new American leader could reshape Moscow's relationship with Washington and back away from supporting Ukraine.

In response to news of the conversation between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin, the United Nations said Wednesday that it welcomed any efforts leading to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

"We would appreciate any efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine that would involve the Russian and Ukrainian sides, so obviously if both of them are willing to be involved in the process, that would be a welcome development," said U.N. spokesman Farhan Haq.

Mr. Trump wrote in his social media post that the U.S. negotiating team would include Secretary of State Marco Rubio; John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director; his national security adviser, Michael Waltz, and his Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff. Mr. Witkoff was in Moscow this week and retrieved the American schoolteacher Marc Fogel, who was imprisoned for more than three years in Russia.

Mr. Trump did not mention Keith Kellogg, the retired general named by Mr. Trump as his envoy for Russia and Ukraine. Mr. Kellogg has generally taken a more aggressive posture toward Russia than some of Mr. Trump's informal advisers, and he recently suggested that Mr. Trump could increase sanctions against Russia to force them toward a peace deal.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly refused to say whether he's spoken to Mr. Putin before Wednesday, although individuals who would know of such a call in the U.S. government were not aware of one, according to people briefed on the president's conversations.

Mr. Trump has often made admiring remarks about the Russian president, whom he called a "genius" after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But in the first week of Mr. Trump's second term, he was more critical, saying the Russian president should not have invaded Ukraine.

"He can't be thrilled, he's not doing so well," Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office hours after he was inaugurated. "Russia is bigger, they have more soldiers to lose, but that's no way to run a country."

[The Brain]

It can be assumed that the POTUS leaked secrets to Russia, as is his wont.

[Sheilbh]

Thanks Shelf, I think we'll find out over the next few weeks one way or the other.

Yeah. I basically think that Russia and Ukraine have agency and I think it's been underestimated repeatedly in the last few years.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I think Ukraine - and Europe - need to have a strategy for what to do when the US withdraws all military support.

If it's a seize fire with European boots on the ground, they then need to prepare for what happens when Russia attacks two-five-ten years down the line.

If it's a continuation of the war, they have to figure out how to effectively sustain it.

I expect we'll see a couple of more turns of Trump gesturing at stabbing Putin in the back and offering hope to Ukraine, but ultimately he'll withdraw aid from Ukraine and pressure it to give up territories currently occupied by Russia.