Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Tonitrus]

The way it looks like to me is that the Russia-Ukraine war is soon going to be between Ukraine + Europe on one side, and Russia on the other. At which point the question is whether Europe is going to be willing (and able) to step up sufficiently.

And the other question, I suppose, is whether Trump is going to actively support Russia and/ or put pressure on Europe to withdraw support.

And that would make France (maybe the UK?) and their nuclear deterrents all the more vital.  Absent that...if NATO is going to look more and more unreliable, I really hope the defense establishments of Poland and the Baltic states are having a lot of informal talks about contingencies.

In fact, if I were Tusk, I'd start thinking about their own deterrent.

[Jacob]

I'm 100% in favour of massively expanding a European nuclear arsenal.

[crazy canuck]

This is just a thought experiment at this point, but what is your view about Canada starting its own nuclear force?

[Josquius]

The problem with the US dropping out to be replaced by Europe is it doesn't just mean Europe has to step up, it means they have to be ready right this second.... Which they aren't.
The US has a seemingly bottomless supply of spare equipment. They could have and should have given far more to Ukraine than they have, not least because it wouldn't have impacted their own military preparedness one jot.
Most European countries have already scraped past the bottom of the barrel of their stocks . New manufacturing has been setup but not at a level that can replace the US supplies.

Argue if you like that this is europes fuck up and they should have had this huge stockpile too... But they didn't and its not something that can be made over night.

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3li33axitkk2e



"Truths"

Yep. With twitter dying and all these new social medias popping up we really should just go back to posts.

[Jacob]

This is just a thought experiment at this point, but what is your view about Canada starting its own nuclear force?

In today's world I think having a nuclear deterrent is crucial to any nation's security. Previously, relying on the US was sufficient for most of the West - including Canada - but that is no longer the case. As such I think Canada needs to find a nuclear umbrella under which it can feel safe; building our own is absolutely something that should be considered.

[Tonitrus]

Feeling the need to pull out Orwell's "You and the Atom Bomb" again.  The fall of the USSR was an exception that tested that rule...and would be my caution against further proliferation...but, well, here we are...

[Jacob]

The problem with the US dropping out to be replaced by Europe is it doesn't just mean Europe has to step up, it means they have to be ready right this second.... Which they aren't.
The US has a seemingly bottomless supply of spare equipment. They could have and should have given far more to Ukraine than they have, not least because it wouldn't have impacted their own military preparedness one jot.
Most European countries have already scraped past the bottom of the barrel of their stocks . New manufacturing has been setup but not at a level that can replace the US supplies.

Argue if you like that this is europes fuck up and they should have had this huge stockpile too... But they didn't and its not something that can be made over night.

Yeah, so it looks like Russia will get the win.

Though I think we're entering a period of significant instability so whether it's a "first win of several" or whether it's a "win followed by losses" remains to be seen.

[Grey Fox]

This is just a thought experiment at this point, but what is your view about Canada starting its own nuclear force?

It's only been 3 weeks and yet. We should enter talks yesterday about Nuclear know how with France. Sell some to Ukraine too.

[Sheilbh]

And that would make France (maybe the UK?) and their nuclear deterrents all the more vital.  Absent that...if NATO is going to look more and more unreliable, I really hope the defense establishments of Poland and the Baltic states are having a lot of informal talks about contingencies.

In fact, if I were Tusk, I'd start thinking about their own deterrent.

I don't think Britain's nukes are independent - I think we are absolutely tied to and integrated into the American defence system.

Yet again de Gaulle is vindicated (I feel that the 21st century has been a long slow demonstration of how the French were right at exactly a point when their ability to propose or build an alternative is at its lowest).

[The Minsky Moment]

"Truths"

I encourage others to watch the video.  He comes across as like a schoolboy rehearsing for Model UN.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I don't think Britain's nukes are independent - I think we are absolutely tied to and integrated into the American defence system.

Yet again de Gaulle is vindicated (I feel that the 21st century has been a long slow demonstration of how the French were right at exactly a point when their ability to propose or build an alternative is at its lowest).

I've heard this before, but I have also heard that this is a myth.  I have not seen anything I would consider definitive either way, and the definitive answer is probably classified.  Of course, when it comes to nuclear deterrents this should be treated pessimistically, which leads to the same conclusion anyway.

[Zoupa]

I'm glad the Africans decided to kick us out. These troops, equipment/logistics will be needed in Odesa sooner rather than later.

[crazy canuck]

This is just a thought experiment at this point, but what is your view about Canada starting its own nuclear force?

In today's world I think having a nuclear deterrent is crucial to any nation's security. Previously, relying on the US was sufficient for most of the West - including Canada - but that is no longer the case. As such I think Canada needs to find a nuclear umbrella under which it can feel safe; building our own is absolutely something that should be considered.

Canada made the decision to avoid nukes because, at the time, non proliferation of the weapons was a more important goal than self protection.  Are we not in the same position now (I ask as Devil's Advocate - I am not sure what the correct answer is).

[Barrister]

This is just a thought experiment at this point, but what is your view about Canada starting its own nuclear force?

In today's world I think having a nuclear deterrent is crucial to any nation's security. Previously, relying on the US was sufficient for most of the West - including Canada - but that is no longer the case. As such I think Canada needs to find a nuclear umbrella under which it can feel safe; building our own is absolutely something that should be considered.

I'm pretty sure Canada could build a crude but effective nuclear weapon within a few months.  We were one of the first civilian nuclear powers, we helped with the Manhattan project, the science isn't all that mysterious.

What we would struggle with is any delivery system.  We have no long-range bombers.  We have no ballistic missiles.  It's doubtful anyone who has those things is just going to hand over a bunch.  You'll note it's the delivery system, not the bomb itself, that North Korea has struggled with.

[crazy canuck]

This is just a thought experiment at this point, but what is your view about Canada starting its own nuclear force?

In today's world I think having a nuclear deterrent is crucial to any nation's security. Previously, relying on the US was sufficient for most of the West - including Canada - but that is no longer the case. As such I think Canada needs to find a nuclear umbrella under which it can feel safe; building our own is absolutely something that should be considered.

I'm pretty sure Canada could build a crude but effective nuclear weapon within a few months.  We were one of the first civilian nuclear powers, we helped with the Manhattan project, the science isn't all that mysterious.

What we would struggle with is any delivery system.  We have no long-range bombers.  We have no ballistic missiles.  It's doubtful anyone who has those things is just going to hand over a bunch.  You'll note it's the delivery system, not the bomb itself, that North Korea has struggled with.

NASA is filled with Canadian rocket scientists.  We just need the Trumpists to purge them and we will be good to go.