Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The eu needs to stop whining about a just peace, it needs to talk about victory.
And plan for it.

[Jacob]

The eu needs to stop whining about a just peace, it needs to talk about victory.
And plan for it.

I completely agree.

[Legbiter]

I could be totally wrong - but my read is that he thinks he's winning already. Western support is not stepping up sufficiently, Russia's economy is bad (but fossil fuel earnings from Europe are at a record high since the invasion), Russia's steadily advancing at a grinding cost. I think his calculation is that he'll get closer to his war aims (which are more maximalist than freezing the conflict now) by just carrying on than by trying to do a deal of some sort now.

The problem Trump has in going over the heads of the Europeans and just freezing the conflict in place is both the abovementioned and that Putin will want him to jawbone the EU into lifting sanctions. 

I see this going about as well as his Gaza peace initiative...

[Tamas]

Then again, Germans might be trembling for the slightest excuse to get cheap Russian gas again before discontent at home grows too large.

[Legbiter]

I doubt even the Germans want to put their balls into the russian vice twice.

[Syt]

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3li33axitkk2e



"Truths"

[Valmy]

So no, he cannot guarantee that.

It seems like a bad look for a statement about standing up to fascism be called "Weimar+"

[Zanza]

Then again, Germans might be trembling for the slightest excuse to get cheap Russian gas again before discontent at home grows too large.

Germany never had the biggest relative exposure in the EU and was quicker and more thorough in not importing Russian fossil fuels anymore than many other countries in the EU.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/03/europe-russia-ukraine-war-energy-imports-oil-gas-pipeline/

[...]

Several European countries have failed to completely sever their energy ties to Russia, and the notoriously pro-Russian governments of Hungary and Slovakia are among them—but they are not alone. In 2024, only Slovakia deposited more into Russian accounts for fossil fuels than France, followed by Hungary, Austria, and Spain.

[...]

EU countries, led by Germany, have done much to truncate their Russian energy dependencies. Between early 2022 and the end of 2023, the EU slashed its imports of Russian fossil fuels by 94 percent, from $16 billion per month to around $1 billion per month, according to Belgian think tank Bruegel.

[...]

By 2024, the share of Russia's pipeline gas in EU imports dropped to about 8% of its 2021 total as Germany and other countries found new markets. But Russian gas continued to flow into the EU—through Ukrainian pipelines—with some of the best customers being Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, Greece, and Italy.

[celedhring]

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3li33axitkk2e

"Truths"

Yeah, gotta love that the DoD secretary is sourcing fucking social media feeds to inform abou what Trump will do. Says it all, really.

[Valmy]

Yeah, gotta love that the DoD secretary is sourcing fucking social media feeds to inform abou what Trump will do. Says it all, really.

Well he is a media guy, not a military man.

[Legbiter]

Yeah, gotta love that the DoD secretary is sourcing fucking social media feeds to inform abou what Trump will do. Says it all, really.

Yeah he's a noob. There's no internal coordination between Trump and players in his admin. Next week Trump will have a brainfart about carpet bombing Sinaloa or something and media attention will shift away from Ukraine.

[Barrister]

Yeah, gotta love that the DoD secretary is sourcing fucking social media feeds to inform abou what Trump will do. Says it all, really.

Yeah he's a noob. There's no internal coordination between Trump and players in his admin. Next week Trump will have a brainfart about carpet bombing Sinaloa or something and media attention will shift away from Ukraine.

You can pretty much see in real-time even his senior cabinet members guessing at what Trump would want them to say without ever having been told a specific plan or narrative.

We had PM Trudeau, and all 10 Canadian Premiers, travel south to DC just the other day to try and deal with tariiffs.  When asked before they said they were there to "listen", and afterwards they admitted "they still didn't know what the Americans wanted from them".

[Jacob]

Less alarmist than I feel about it, but fairly on point: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/13/politics/us-european-relations-trump-putin-analysis/index.html

[Jacob]

The way it looks like to me is that the Russia-Ukraine war is soon going to be between Ukraine + Europe on one side, and Russia on the other. At which point the question is whether Europe is going to be willing (and able) to step up sufficiently.

And the other question, I suppose, is whether Trump is going to actively support Russia and/ or put pressure on Europe to withdraw support.

[crazy canuck]

Less alarmist than I feel about it, but fairly on point: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/13/politics/us-european-relations-trump-putin-analysis/index.html

An alarmist exaggerates danger, I am not sure the danger here can be exaggerated.