[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

Oh and I forgot - Liberal Party is unlikely to even be the leader of the opposition.  They're likely to be the third party - or maybe even the fourth party.

That, I'm not so sure of Beeb. We're all in agreement they will lose the election, but I think they will get official opposition. No one takes the other parties seriously enough. I mean, not even I do, and I used to be a diehard NDP-er.

BQ will do well.

In order to be official opposition Liberals would need to get 40+ seats.  With current poll numbers, that seems questionable.

CBC poll tracker puts BQ and Libs within the margin of error of each other for seats.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

And they're a lagging indicator - most recent polls have been even worse for the Liberals.

[Josephus]

Yeah, maybe but a new leader will give them press and a lift, like Kamla did. Not enough to win, but enough to get them the seats they need for Opposition status.

[Barrister]

Yeah, maybe but a new leader will give them press and a lift, like Kamla did. Not enough to win, but enough to get them the seats they need for Opposition status.

Of course.  And never say never - the Libs could win this.

It just seems quite unlikely.

[crazy canuck]

Coyne's piece on Trudeau

Scathing and accurate.  Gifted link

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/JZ25RYN7QNC4BCBFPOKZ7HIDGU/

[Oexmelin]

Thanks cc.

I am not entirely convinced with the assessment, or perhaps the style of it. I couldnt't help but snicker at that line: "Voters often think in metaphors and storylines". It seems so astonishingly patronizing, and yet so ironically oblivious coming from the press that loves nothing more than metaphors and storylines...

[viper37]

Coyne's piece on Trudeau

Scathing and accurate.  Gifted link

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/JZ25RYN7QNC4BCBFPOKZ7HIDGU/

I read this this week.

It's like the G&M opened their eyes suddenly because the wind shifted, and now they want to enlighten us. :roll:

[Josephus]

It's easy to pick on Trudeau now, as it was easy to pick on Mulroney when he left office.
I think history will look kindly on Trudeau, as it did Mulroney. There were plenty of things he did get done: mostly the child benefit which did a lot to reduce child poverty, the dental plan (I get Singh had a lot to do with that one), I think Trudeau did well during COVID, and dealt with Trump 1.0 admirably.

He will be remembered for reneging on the electoral reform (that really gets me) and the ethics scandals he had to deal with; but by and large I think he was a succesful prime minister.

Every era has its end-date. Trudeau past his by a couple years. Sometimes I think the American two-term rule might be apropos here too.

[crazy canuck]

Coyne's piece on Trudeau

Scathing and accurate.  Gifted link

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/JZ25RYN7QNC4BCBFPOKZ7HIDGU/

I read this this week.

It's like the G&M opened their eyes suddenly because the wind shifted, and now they want to enlighten us. :roll:

Coyne has been saying this all along

[Barrister]

It's easy to pick on Trudeau now, as it was easy to pick on Mulroney when he left office.
I think history will look kindly on Trudeau, as it did Mulroney. There were plenty of things he did get done: mostly the child benefit which did a lot to reduce child poverty, the dental plan (I get Singh had a lot to do with that one), I think Trudeau did well during COVID, and dealt with Trump 1.0 admirably.

He will be remembered for reneging on the electoral reform (that really gets me) and the ethics scandals he had to deal with; but by and large I think he was a succesful prime minister.

Every era has its end-date. Trudeau past his by a couple years. Sometimes I think the American two-term rule might be apropos here too.

We'll have to come back to this in 10, or even 20 years - but I think history will judge Trudeau harshly.

So I could quibble about many of the programs you cite positively - the child benefit simply replaced the Harper-era universal child care benefit and covered many fewer people.  Dental care again doesn't cover that many people.  And on the other hand I thought voting reform was stupid and Trudeau smart to abandon it.

Trudeau inherited a surplus (maybe late, but still) and has given us deficits.  Declining productivity growth which he masked by massively increasing immigration.  Standard of living falling further behind the US.

[Barrister]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-premier-danielle-smith-donald-trump-kevin-o-leary-1.7429546

So this is global politics in 2025 - Alberta Premier meets up with President-elect Trump - as the guest of reality TV star Kevin O'Leary.

I'm okay with Smith going freelance on diplomacy - as long as it works.  So far it doesn't seem like it's working.

Trump seems determined to implement his 25% tariffs on Canada.  No clear message on exactly what he wants Canada to do to avoid it - he just loves tariffs.

It seems like Smith's strategy was to seek an oil and gas "carve out".  Which on the one hand makes sense - I can't believe Trump is going to impose a tariff on oil imports.  Obviously though that is also throwing Ontario and the ROC under the bus.  Not that it seems like it is working anyways.

[Grey Fox]

There's nothing we can do, they buy too much of our oil for them to have a positive trade balance. They'll continue buying the oil with the tariffs and everything else will be somewhat reduced so they can implement tax cuts.

I think the Trudeau PMship will be forgotten and treated like a footnote between Harper and the disastrous PP PMship.

[Barrister]

There's nothing we can do, they buy too much of our oil for them to have a positive trade balance. They'll continue buying the oil with the tariffs and everything else will be somewhat reduced so they can implement tax cuts.

I think the Trudeau PMship will be forgotten and treated like a footnote between Harper and the disastrous PP PMship.

You have to think that Trump voters won't love how the tariffs will increase the price of gas at the pump.

And my understanding is that Canada has a large trade balance - in goods.  When it comes to services, and investments (that is - Canadians investing in the US) the flow in money is even or in fact favours the US.


I find POilievre to be a bit of a mystery - which is worrisome - but not some guarantee of "disaster".

[crazy canuck]

It's easy to pick on Trudeau now, as it was easy to pick on Mulroney when he left office.
I think history will look kindly on Trudeau, as it did Mulroney. There were plenty of things he did get done: mostly the child benefit which did a lot to reduce child poverty, the dental plan (I get Singh had a lot to do with that one), I think Trudeau did well during COVID, and dealt with Trump 1.0 admirably.

He will be remembered for reneging on the electoral reform (that really gets me) and the ethics scandals he had to deal with; but by and large I think he was a succesful prime minister.

Every era has its end-date. Trudeau past his by a couple years. Sometimes I think the American two-term rule might be apropos here too.

We'll have to come back to this in 10, or even 20 years - but I think history will judge Trudeau harshly.

So I could quibble about many of the programs you cite positively - the child benefit simply replaced the Harper-era universal child care benefit and covered many fewer people.  Dental care again doesn't cover that many people.  And on the other hand I thought voting reform was stupid and Trudeau smart to abandon it.

Trudeau inherited a surplus (maybe late, but still) and has given us deficits.  Declining productivity growth which he masked by massively increasing immigration.  Standard of living falling further behind the US.

I agree history will judge him harshly for things that were entirely within his control.  He promised to reinvigorate Parliament by giving decision making authority to Ministers, but the PMO became the most centralized center of power in the history of Canada.  His promise that the 2015 election would be the last fptp election is one of the reasons he was elected.  His excuse for not implemented his promise is laughable. He didn't promise that he would introduce a weighted ballot (something that would benefit the Liberal party) he promised to put an end to fptp, but when it became clear that his idea for electoral reform would not fly and that what would happen is proportionate representation, he killed the whole idea.

There is a long list of public policy blunders and scandal but I think those two issues are going to stand out as fundamental failures.

[viper37]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-premier-danielle-smith-donald-trump-kevin-o-leary-1.7429546

So this is global politics in 2025 - Alberta Premier meets up with President-elect Trump - as the guest of reality TV star Kevin O'Leary.

I'm okay with Smith going freelance on diplomacy - as long as it works.  So far it doesn't seem like it's working.

Trump seems determined to implement his 25% tariffs on Canada.  No clear message on exactly what he wants Canada to do to avoid it - he just loves tariffs.

It seems like Smith's strategy was to seek an oil and gas "carve out".  Which on the one hand makes sense - I can't believe Trump is going to impose a tariff on oil imports.  Obviously though that is also throwing Ontario and the ROC under the bus.  Not that it seems like it is working anyways.

A few points.

Trudeau going to Mar-A-Lago was treated by the conservative press as "groveling in front of Trump".  But Smith's similar gesture, even worst because she literally betrayed the rest of the country by trying to cut a seperate deal, was seen as a bold move.  Our press is becoming just as bad as the US.  Maybe something will have to be done about ownership.

Most Canadians would look at seperatism as being traitorous, but it seems to me there's much worst traitors in our midst, without even resorting to that.  At least, Ford and Legault seem to be working together.  Not much leadership seem to come from Ottawa, but then again, this is a Liberal administration, so I don't expect much from them right now.  The first time around, they had a more solid cabinet, but it's been replaced by sycophants mostly.  The top dogs are all loyal friends of Trudeau, there's no one left to tell him the truth as it is.


As for Canada's status under Trudeau: Most Canadians of the middle class are worst of under Trudeau than they were under Harper.  The rich got richer (this is no surprise) and the very poor fare a little better in some provinces.  Cost of living has increased in most OECD countries, but it got worst in Canada for longer because the government kept meddling in the economy instead of letting the Bank of Canada juggulate inflation alone.

The dental program does not cover a lot of people and the pharmacare program only covers a few meds, both at the cost of increased bureaucracy.  That money would have been better spent by giving it to the provinces so they could expand their own existing program, especially dental care, since all provinces already had a program in place, sometimes more generous than what the Feds are offering.  But anything is good to buy votes.  And the NPD is very quick to forget its promises, as empty as ever.

[viper37]

but the PMO became the most centralized center of power in the history of Canada.

Tbf, that is something going on since his father that each PM added on since.  And I expect the next PM, whomever he/she may be to keep going in the same direction.  Especially if its Poilièvre.