Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[mongers]

A huge Russian convoy of several hundred vehicles, mainly 6x6 trucks, a few AFVs, left Damascus and was seen heading towards the Med coast on Friday

Channel 4 news covered it's journey, interviewing Syrians from beside the main road, a lorry broke down, the rest of the convoy stopped and the wheel/tire was changed, it took the Russians nearly 2 hours to do it!

[Sheilbh]

Interesting comment from Oz Katerji (a British-Lebanese war correspondent who has mainly been in Ukraine for the last few years but is now back in Syria) on the meme-ifying of al-Jolani/al-Sharaa (or the "Che Gueverification" of his image across Arab social media) as something that will possibly be of concern for Arab despots. A populist political Islamist emphasising state-building and "institutions" for the region could be as terrifying for them as a Communist revolution in Latin America was for that region's despots.

Not uncoincidentally El-Sisi commenting (I think for the first time) on Assad's downfall saying "my hands are not stained with blood, nor have I taken anyone's money" - which has strong "already answered by my t-shirt" vibes.

[DGuller]

To be fair, when performed properly, hangings don't result in my blood staining.

[Tamas]

Modern sexulariwm off to a not great start. The new great leader not only didn't shake hands wit the female German foreign minister on a visit of EU dignitaries, but later she was edited out of official photos released of the event by Syria.

[Duque de Bragança]

Is that really surprising with an islamist?
Erdogan would not give a seat to Ursula van der Leyen, president of the European Commission, not so long ago.

[DGuller]

Modern sexulariwm off to a not great start. The new great leader not only didn't shake hands wit the female German foreign minister on a visit of EU dignitaries, but later she was edited out of official photos released of the event by Syria.

Maybe the new Syrian leadership is secretly ultra-Orthodox Jewish?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/internationaal/midden-oosten/in-het-syrie-van-hts-we-zullen-nooit-zoals-assad-een-seculiere-koers-varen/10580554.html

In HTS's Syria: 'We will never follow a secular course like Assad'

Idlib, the heartland of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group, appears to be flourishing again after years of war. But behind the gleaming marble and Syrian freedom flags lurks a deeply entrenched conservative order where women's rights are the ultimate battleground.

In the auditorium of Idlib University, the sound of women's voices fills the room. Hundreds of veiled women sit huddled together, waving the green-white-and-black revolutionary flags of Syria. The smell of coffee fills the room, where babies are rocked and smartphone lights flicker.

The fall of President Bashar al-Assad is still being celebrated there, three weeks after his ouster. 'Hail to Ahmed al-Sharaa (HTS leader, ed.)' , Dr. Omar Hammadi shouts into the microphone. 'Victory belongs to the Muslims.' The room bursts into applause and cheers. Men and women sit separately, as is customary. Halfway through his eulogy, a man leans toward Hammadi and whispers something in his ear. Hammadi stops, looks at the female, unveiled journalist in the room, folds his notes and takes out another piece of paper. He resumes his speech: 'Women must be a factory of good men. Take the Surah an-Noor (Koran text, ed.) as a guideline and put those verses into practice.'

With these words, Hammadi sets the tone that HTS promotes: women as guardians of morality, essential for the family, but without a visible role outside the traditional frameworks. It fits in with the policy that HTS introduced in 2017 through the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG). This not only controls military life, but also the civil administration of the province of Idlib, where 4.5 million people live.

Mandatory headscarf
The Islamist group, which emerged from the al-Nusra Front that was once allied with al-Qaeda, has transformed over the years from a loose collection of jihadist factions into the dominant force in the region. HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa claims to have finally settled accounts with his terrorist past.

Mohammad Karnas, a 37-year-old HTS fighter, shares that view: "HTS used to be very extreme," he says, as his four children run around his house on the outskirts of Idlib. "But since 2019, everything has gotten better." Without hesitation, he claims that HTS will free all IS detention camps for women and children. He is less certain about the male IS fighters. "We will see later who is really fanatical," he claims. "Maybe they will get a deradicalization program – if they don't escape."

But when asked whether HTS will ever take a secular course, he shakes his head firmly. 'That will never happen. Assad has shown us what that means. For us, a combination of Sharia and an Islamic state always counts.'

This ideology is visibly reflected in daily life, particularly in education. In August 2023, the SSG in Idlib introduced new rules for private schools: strict gender segregation, a mandatory black abaya and headscarf for girls over the age of 12, and a ban on music and "inappropriate performances." Even on online platforms, these restrictions apply both inside and outside school grounds.

Mahmoud Salama (50), the head of one of the universities, praises the progress under HTS. 'We have 27,000 students, of whom at least 60 percent are women,' he says in his spacious office. 'The SSG provides the infrastructure and modern facilities. For 450 euros a year, students get access to education that has never been better here.'

Spotless
But outside the walls of his office, it's a different story. For Bayan Telgi (21), one of the 500 bioengineering students, the promises of advancement ring hollow. "Almost none of my friends find work in their field," she says. Her voice drops to a whisper; the male school administrators are always nearby. "I'll probably get married after I graduate and become a stay-at-home mom."

Her words paint the bigger picture: HTS presents itself as the architect of progress, but in reality it is mainly women who are running up against glass ceilings. The rules that are supposed to keep them in line not only limit their freedom, but also their future.

What course HTS will take remains a mystery, even now that the group has taken over large parts of Syria, including Damascus. Idlib feels like an odd one out, a city that can hardly be compared to other places scarred by war. Wi-Fi is everywhere, marble buildings glisten in the sun, restaurants are spotless, and even in government buildings, smoking is rare.

The city is bustling. It has been largely rebuilt and seems to offer an unprecedented quality of life. Payment in the Syrian lira is no longer possible here; the Turkish currency has dominated for years. The local government manages the water, garbage collection and roads. Taxes are collected and Turkish electricity companies have invested heavily. What was once a dilapidated city is now a model of order and progress - despite the bombing that Assad ravaged the city for years, until the advance of HTS this month.

Misogyny
That's on the surface, but what's underneath? In the media, HTS presents itself as a pragmatic group of leaders, more moderate than before. HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has promised to respect all minority groups, and according to police commander Mohammad al-Shakha (26), that policy is strictly adhered to. 'Those orders are clear,' he says. The young man first lived in Istanbul for a few years, where his Arabic took on a Turkish sound. A year ago, he joined the HTS police force. Before that, he was at the front in Aleppo in 2017 as an HTS fighter. 'Tell the West that we are not terrorists,' he says emphatically. 'We do not discriminate against anyone. Everyone is treated with respect.'

On the roof of the police station, al-Shakha lets his gaze wander over the city. To his left flutters the Syrian revolutionary flag, the symbol of resistance to Assad. To his right hangs a white flag with black Arabic calligraphy: the shahada with 'There is no god but Allah, and Mohammed is his prophet'. This flag was once known as 'the Afghan flag', a jihad symbol that was later adopted by Jabhat al-Nusra, the predecessor of HTS. For HTS, the flag now embodies the unity of Muslims and their rule over Idlib. 'That is our flag', al-Shakha says with visible pride. 'The flag of the majority.'

Ten minutes later, on the street, things go wrong. An Arabic-speaking man with a Saudi accent, later identified as Abu Yousef Ashamri, stops by the unchaperoned female journalist. He points an accusing finger at her face and shouts: 'You have to wear a headscarf! You have to behave.' His words cut through the commotion, sharp and charged. The man's face contorts with annoyance; his posture betrays anger.

Bystanders watch, but no one intervenes. Even the HTS police officers, who are standing a few meters away, remain unmoved. Ashamri simply continues: 'You should be ashamed. Cover your hair. Idlib has a different mentality. Here people show respect. Even the Christians wear a headscarf. So you do too.' Only when he realizes that he is shouting at a journalist does his tone change. He gives another name and then walks on.

It shows once again that misogyny is not a marginal phenomenon in Idlib. On the streets, full-face veils are the norm. In restaurants, women disappear behind wooden screens. At public services, they wait in separate lines. Their space is limited, their visibility controlled. From behind the flags and gleaming restaurants, the question arises how severely women remain oppressed in Syria where HTS now holds sway.

translated with Google. From about a week ago.
I'm pretty sure it's indicative of where Syria is headed. But to clear up misunderstandings: it's in the direction of a backwards islamofascist shithole. Because that's the ideology. Wether it's over there, or over here. Reason enough to keep it over there, and not import it to over here.

[Sheilbh]

Modern sexulariwm off to a not great start. The new great leader not only didn't shake hands wit the female German foreign minister on a visit of EU dignitaries, but later she was edited out of official photos released of the event by Syria.

Just to flag that's a fake image that's doing the rounds. It's from a Telegram channel. This is the official photos of the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs:


I'd add that Bashar al-Assad shook hads, had a beautiful British-Syrian wife and murdered hundreds of thousands of Syrians on sectarian grounds.

I find this and the EU position absolutely mental. It's good they went, to give them credit for that. But that is basically the limit of the good stuff.

I think sanctions should already have been lifted - they were imposed on the Assad regime for war crimes. That regime has gone, we should be lifting sanctions and engaging seriously with Syria (as, incidentally, Ukraine have) especially in the early days.

This trip was, I think, incredibly arrogant and frankly deluded. First of all the French Foreign Minister went and at the meeting was initially waving a finger at al-Sharaa, which then turned into a handshake. His job apparently was to primarily lecture on minority rights (there have been councils ongoing of Sharaa and minority communities), this was described I think by Macron as part of France's historic role in the Middle East like it's 1867.

You then have Baerbock arriving in Syria in bulletproof vest, going for this meeting and then a big deal over the handshake (I've made exactly the same gesture he makes - hand over heart - with women Muslim colleagues who don't want to shake hands, it's fine). She's since said that the EU won't financially assist a regime that is Islamic in nature and that sanctions (which started in 2011 in response to Assad's repression of protests) would not be lifted and would depend on the political developments in particular democracy, women's rights and minority rights.

Even leaving aside the pretty colonial images and quotes of the French foreign minister descending on the Levant to lecture about minority rights (especially ironic given France's extreme divide and rule approach in Syria). This just seems utterly disconnected from reality.

Firstly there's what Europe wants. Within 24 hours of Damascus falling France, Germany, Italy and Britain had all stopped processing asylum applications from Syria. It's clear that what Europe wants is to say the refugee crisis is over and Syrians should go home - and I think that is where things will end up, Europe will just burn all of its political capital in Damascus first.

Secondly the leverage Europe has is sanctions, and the ask is to determine the nature of Syria's constitutional order. Which strikes me as a vast oversestimation of Europe's influence here and a slightly unhinged mismatch of ends and means.

I think the rest of Europe could do an awful lot from looking at the way Ukraine has engaged. It might not work but there is an opportunity to strategically weaken Russia's position in Europe's neighbourhood (not to mention weaken Iran, particularly in Lebanon) and resolve the refugee crisis. This is an opportunity - if Europe can get past its own civilisational turn.

Is that really surprising with an islamist?
Erdogan would not give a seat to Ursula van der Leyen, president of the European Commission, not so long ago.

This isn't true. Erdogan made a power play, as President of Turkey, of only having one armchair next to him for the President (in part this is because the EU's five equal presidents is unusual). It was rude and it was a power play because basically Michel and VdL would have to work out who gets the top seat, or push back and demand another.

But watch the video. Erdogan didn't refuse to give a seat to VdL. Michel more or less pushed her out the way to absolutely race to the top seat - he literally overtakes her to get to the seat.

[Razgovory]

I noticed that some of the Stop the War guys seemed upset that the war in Syria... stopped.

[HVC]

don't like the side that won or are upset their favorite pastime is over?

[Sheilbh]

don't like the side that won or are upset their favorite pastime is over?

Stop the War's a front for the Socialist Worker's Party. They have form. For example, I remember back in the early 2010s, there were a few events they held where they kicked out Syrian refugees because they were, overwhelmingly, refugees from Assad.

Notably they did not oppose, or say anything, about Russian bombings in Syria.

They have an old school Trot view of the world and Assad was on their side.

[Zanza]

@Sheilbh:
I just tried to find out what sanctions the EU has in place against Syria and it seems mostly against natural persons, particular legal entities or generic bans on prohibiting any support for suppression. Would the new regime even fall under these - unless they just continue the suppression?

But I did not look much into details.

Edit: Found some more information and yes, quite a few general sanctions on product categories or industries do not make sense with the new regime. Should be lifted.

[Sheilbh]

@Sheilbh:
I just tried to find out what sanctions the EU has in place against Syria and it seems mostly against natural persons, particular legal entities or generic bans on prohibiting any support for suppression. Would the new regime even fall under these - unless they just continue the suppression?

But I did not look much into details.

I think it is broader than that. A lot of the sanctions focused on inividuals or legal persons involved in the Assad regime, but for example there are pretty strong measures to restrict Syria's access to financial markets, bans on all sorts of European exports (both goods and services/work) to Syria as well as, say, bans on Syrian oil (and other) exports. Those were largely imposed in 2011 in response to Assad repressing protests.

The organisation/legal person specific sanctions I think could also be challenging for Syria because it's a very state based economy - so I imagine those same companies responsible for supporting the Assad regime's repression (and being a sinecure for Assad loyalists) will also be relied on for rebuilding Syria. I also think it is possible that might be the right approach - as those companies may actually be the ones with people who have the expertise to do things you need to do to re-build.

There's no sign of al-Sharaa pursuing a retributive or even de-Ba'athifying strategy - I've mentioned before but he's announced an amnesty, they kept the Assadist PM in a hotel to do a handover of power. It's not a clean or morally pleasing approach, but I think it might be the right one to end the civil war and begin to reconstruct the country.

Edit: And I think both on organisations and individuals, there's possibly a question of whether foreign governments should be more stringent in their unwillingness to forget/move on than a government that emerges in Syria. You think of the bureaucrats and businessmen across Europe who were instrumental in the trente glorieuses who were, at best, collaborators with fascist regimes...I'm genuinely not sure on theanswer.

[Razgovory]

don't like the side that won or are upset their favorite pastime is over?

Don't like the side that won.  Suddenly they are all very concerned about "head-choppers" taking over.  They had no concern about "head-choppers" in Palestine.   Got a ban at Pdox for saying that some of the activists should go down to that prison that was liberated and see the mass graves for themselves.

[Neil]

Are people still talking about world events on the Paradox forums?  I thought they were trying to stamp that out?