Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[Duque de Bragança]

Sounds like a new Lebanon on a bigger scale.

Well, Greater Syria was supposed to include Lebanon.

[crazy canuck]

Sounds like a new Lebanon on a bigger scale.

The bigger scale is what might save them.  Lebanon never had the resources to be a standalone state.  Syria is viable if the political will is there.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Sadly it's the perfect foundation for another civil war.

I think it's a continuation of the same civil war.  The Syrian Civil War has been multi-party from the beginning.  Assad and Russia just pissed everyone else off enough that almost all of them decided to team up for a bit and take Assad off the board.  This is just a lull while the remaining parties figure out what to do next (while occasionally kicking ISIS in the nuts).

[crazy canuck]

Sadly it's the perfect foundation for another civil war.

I think it's a continuation of the same civil war.  The Syrian Civil War has been multi-party from the beginning.  Assad and Russia just pissed everyone else off enough that almost all of them decided to team up for a bit and take Assad off the board.  This is just a lull while the remaining parties figure out what to do next (while occasionally kicking ISIS in the nuts).

Certainly seems to be the case for Turkey.  they seem to be the ones intent on continuing the fight against the Kurds.  I don't understand how they can actively fight against a US backed group.  But such is the world.

from the NYTimes

Fighting raged in parts of Syria on Monday, a day after rebels overthrew the Assad regime, as armed groups with competing interests continued to vie for territory and power.

Many of the clashes were centered around Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria, where Turkish-backed rebel groups have intensified a military offensive against forces backed by the United States.

As the rebel alliance that toppled President Bashar al-Assad held meetings in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and announced on Monday that it intended to form a transition government, the violence elsewhere highlighted Syria's complex web of opposition groups, many of them holding different objectives and visions for a post-Assad future.

There were fierce battles in the northern city of Manbij, near Syria's border with Turkey, which has for years been under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led coalition of rebel groups supported by the United States. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitoring group based in Britain, the city was captured on Monday by the Syrian National Army, a ragtag coalition of armed opposition groups backed by Turkey. A spokesperson for the Syrian Democratic Forces said fighters with the Syrian National Army had taken only 60 percent of the city. The claims could not be independently verified.

The offensive has been supported by Turkish airstrikes, leaving dozens of combatants dead and forcing many of the city's hundreds of thousands of residents to flee, according to Kurdish-led forces and the Observatory.

Since the separate rebel assault against the Assad regime gathered pace last month, the Turkish military appears to have ramped up its attacks on areas controlled by the U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces. Among them, a Turkish drone strike on a house killed 11 civilians, six of them children, the Observatory said on Monday.

Turkey and the United States are allies, sworn to protect each other as members of the NATO alliance. Though both countries celebrated the ouster on Sunday of Mr. al-Assad, their interests diverge over support for the Kurds in northern Syria, and the conflict in Syria has long strained the alliance between Ankara and Washington.

Turkey views the presence of armed Kurds so close to its border as a threat. For years, the Kurdish-led forces in Syria have been important partners for the U.S. in fighting Islamic State, the Islamist terrorist group that swept through the country and neighboring Iraq more than a decade ago amid the chaos of Syria's civil war.

Although the Islamic State's so-called caliphate has since been destroyed, the group has reconstituted in recent years in the Syrian desert and has launched sporadic attacks against Syrian regime troops.

The head of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, warned last week of the Islamic State's resurgence, stating at a news conference that there had been "increased movement" by the group in the desert region.

The warning added to growing fears that the Islamic State could exploit the power vacuum left by the Assad regime's downfall — a key concern for U.S. leaders.

"We're cleareyed about the fact that ISIS will try to take advantage of any vacuum to reestablish its capability, to create a safe haven," President Biden said on Sunday, using an acronym for the terror group.

"We will not let that happen," he added.

Hours later, Mr. Biden authorized U.S. airstrikes against Islamic State camps and operatives inside Syria. A swarm of B-52, F-15 and A-10 warplanes hit more than 75 targets in central Syria with about 140 munitions, according to U.S. officials.

[Sheilbh]

My opinion: you're overthinking this. Russian airpower and Hezbollah ground forces were what was keeping Assad in play. Both of these have been effectively nullified by Ukraine and Israel. The SAA was always a corrupt, dumb as hell "army". When they were still in Beyrouth, you could go through checkpoints by giving them Monopoly money and telling them it's USD. I've actually done this.

Oh for sure. Syria was massively hollowed out by the Assad's looting  too(and something worth thinking about in terms of unexpectedly quick unraveling - though no reason to think it'll happen soon - with 85 year old Khamenei, or Putin's system).

My point was more about the rebels though. This is a super international war but it wasn't proxies or puppets who caught everyone by surprise and ended the war but Syrian forces (who have shifted their way of operating, and their PR, to build up the capacity to do it.

From what I read, there are multiple powerful factions in Syria now. Damascus was actually not taken first by HTS, but rather Druzes and Arabs from Southern Syria. The Kurds are string and some other factions have influence too, like Alawites, Christians etc.. So it is not a given that HTS will be able to establish an Islamist state - if they even want that. With so many factions, the situation could also deteriorate after having won against the unifying common enemy Assad.

On the other hand HTS have apparently issued a general amnesty for regime forces with a few exceptions. I could be wrong but that very much feels like the sort of thing that helps bring civil wars to an end - a bit of necessary, willed forgetting.

Hopefully they can get control of the armouries quickly because that is a huge risk to the wider region if those weapons simply disagree. Interesting to see what happens with drug production as well (it's really striking how much drug production and basically insurgencies/collapse of states go together - Syria, Afghanistan, Colombia ).

Hundreds of thousands of Syrians are coming back to Syria from Lebanon. I doubt very much that anyone in Syria has any interest in getting into a fight in Lebanon.

Or possibly Lebanese pushing back against Hezbollah and Iran. The fireworks in Beirut celebrating the fall of the regime reflects the view of many Lebanese about Syria and Assad - and how easy is it for Iran and others to back Hezbollah, already hammered by Israel, without Syria?

[Sheilbh]

Seems like false hopes regarding Assad plane going down.  That said, he appears to be as useful as Yanukovich, there just to give credibility to Russian exile insurance policy.  I don't see how he can ever be a player in any way going forward.

This is possibly my most heretical opinion - that actually it might be better to encourage dictators to flee to a villa in a friendly state where they can enjoy their wealth than try to insist on some form of justice. I could be wrong but I feel it just causes them to dig in and throw everything at surviving because there's often no way out - and it's actually kind of doing the world a service to give Assad a dacha.

[Barrister]

Seems like false hopes regarding Assad plane going down.  That said, he appears to be as useful as Yanukovich, there just to give credibility to Russian exile insurance policy.  I don't see how he can ever be a player in any way going forward.

This is possibly my most heretical opinion - that actually it might be better to encourage dictators to flee to a villa in a friendly state where they can enjoy their wealth than try to insist on some form of justice. I could be wrong but I feel it just causes them to dig in and throw everything at surviving because there's often no way out - and it's actually kind of doing the world a service to give Assad a dacha.

I would agree with that.

Saddam Hussein, or Gadaffi, dying in the way they did, was an object lesson for dictators to stay and fight.

I would prefer people flee, like the Shah of Iran, Idi Amin, or Yanukovych.

[Sheilbh]

Saddam Hussein, or Gadaffi, dying in the way they did, was an object lesson for dictators to stay and fight.

Also in not giving up your WMDS Lesson from those two, especially Gadaffi, is if you've got them, keep them.

[Barrister]

Saddam Hussein, or Gadaffi, dying in the way they did, was an object lesson for dictators to stay and fight.

Also in not giving up your WMDS Lesson from those two, especially Gadaffi, is if you've got them, keep them.

Ukraine also.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So it is not a given that HTS will be able to establish an Islamist state - if they even want that.

That would be positive result, but unlikely. They're islamists and they'll follow an islamist trajectory. Not at once, but once they feel they can.
I'll be happily surprised if I end up being wrong, but I don't expect to be surprised.

[Barrister]

So it is not a given that HTS will be able to establish an Islamist state - if they even want that.

That would be positive result, but unlikely. They're islamists and they'll follow an islamist trajectory. Not at once, but once they feel they can.
I'll be happily surprised if I end up being wrong, but I don't expect to be surprised.

I think you can count on Syria having an Islamist-type government.

The question though is what kind or flavour of Islamist government would it have.  Best case scenario (in my opinion) would be something on a western-european model, where there's an official state religion that is given preference, but is broadly tolerant.  Iraq is kind of along this model.

Worst case scenario would be an Iranian-style theocracy.

We'll see.  The very, very early signals from HST has been cautiously positive - but let's see if the remaining factions come together for some kind of constituent assembly, or if they all battle for supremacy.

[Zanza]

Worst case scenario would be an Iranian-style theocracy.

That is hardly the worst case scenario, just one of many bad ones. Assad's regime was worse than Iran, the Taleban are worse, the Islamic State was worse etc.

[Zanza]

Seems like false hopes regarding Assad plane going down.  That said, he appears to be as useful as Yanukovich, there just to give credibility to Russian exile insurance policy.  I don't see how he can ever be a player in any way going forward.

This is possibly my most heretical opinion - that actually it might be better to encourage dictators to flee to a villa in a friendly state where they can enjoy their wealth than try to insist on some form of justice. I could be wrong but I feel it just causes them to dig in and throw everything at surviving because there's often no way out - and it's actually kind of doing the world a service to give Assad a dacha.

What's your view on the merits of the Nuremberg Trials then?

[Tamas]

I think you guys need to remember that there is zero history of democracy there. There will be a lot of forces, not least the myriad groups armed to the teeth, pushing things toward violence and extremism. Another strongman dictatorship forming eventually that will want to remain part of the international community is the reasonable best case scenario IMHO.

[Zanza]

I think you guys need to remember that there is zero history of democracy there. There will be a lot of forces, not least the myriad groups armed to the teeth, pushing things toward violence and extremism. Another strongman dictatorship forming eventually that will want to remain part of the international community is the reasonable best case scenario IMHO.

While I share your expectation that they will not be able to establish a functioning democracy, I do not see a history of democracy as a prerequisite for establishing one.