Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[grumbler]

This is possibly my most heretical opinion - that actually it might be better to encourage dictators to flee to a villa in a friendly state where they can enjoy their wealth than try to insist on some form of justice. I could be wrong but I feel it just causes them to dig in and throw everything at surviving because there's often no way out - and it's actually kind of doing the world a service to give Assad a dacha.

I'd argue that yours is the orthodox position among foreign policy types.  There are some exceptions, but by and large the dictators brought to justice were captured by locals with the ability to insist that they be punished.

[Norgy]

What I had read is that Israel

A; seized Mount Hermon (mentioned briefly in the article) as it was providing a radar shadow for incoming drones / missiles, and

B: taking the opportunty to destroy any heavy Syrian military equipment like tanks, helicopters and anti-aircraft defences.

I'm not sure whether this is a good move or not on their part.

Yeah, from what little I understand, this was very much thanks to Israel. And now Iran wants to meddle and have a "peace conference" with all the different groups in Syria.

I think this is mostly a sign of how the Hezbollah have been weakened and a credit to Israel's military strength.

However, I am not entirely optimistic about Syria's future just yet.
Has anyone called Erdogan lately?

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Has anyone called Erdogan lately?

I tried, but he couldn't hear anything over the sound of all the artillery falling on SDF positions.

[Sheilbh]

I work across the street from the Syrian embassy. Colleague who had to work over the weekend said there was party there, and looking out the window, it's dark, but I notice instead of the red-white-black flag they used to fly, there's now the green-white-black draped on the balcony.

Wonder how many extra flights to Moscow were leaving this weekend.

As I say, we'll see how it goes. But I am struck by the reports of an amnesty, them taking Assad's PM to a hotel for a "formal handover" of power and, say, the Embassy in Russia replacing flags and apparently still having the same ambassador pending a replacement being sent.

Again no idea what sort of regime will emerge - but if you were wanting to end a civil war and establish state structures, I feel like these are probably the sort of things you'd do

I'd argue that yours is the orthodox position among foreign policy types.  There are some exceptions, but by and large the dictators brought to justice were captured by locals with the ability to insist that they be punished.

It might be more me reading lawyerly types and Guardian articles that makes me think it's heretical then.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Has anyone called Erdogan lately?

I tried, but he couldn't hear anything over the sound of all the artillery falling on SDF positions.

and kurdish women being deported, probably for mass-rape and slavery.

[Barrister]

What I had read is that Israel

A; seized Mount Hermon (mentioned briefly in the article) as it was providing a radar shadow for incoming drones / missiles, and

B: taking the opportunty to destroy any heavy Syrian military equipment like tanks, helicopters and anti-aircraft defences.

I'm not sure whether this is a good move or not on their part.

Yeah, from what little I understand, this was very much thanks to Israel. And now Iran wants to meddle and have a "peace conference" with all the different groups in Syria.

I think this is mostly a sign of how the Hezbollah have been weakened and a credit to Israel's military strength.

However, I am not entirely optimistic about Syria's future just yet.
Has anyone called Erdogan lately?

So yes - a lot of this is thanks to Israel, though not done by Israel to weaken Assad.

Some of these stories emerging from Syria about the political prisoners though are heartbreaking.

Any comprehensive peace and settlement in Syria probably needs to involve Iran (and Turkey) - but fuck those guys if they think they'll take a leading role.

Again though - Israel does risk over-extending themselves and making themselves the new(old) enemy of the new regime.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I'd argue that yours is the orthodox position among foreign policy types.  There are some exceptions, but by and large the dictators brought to justice were captured by locals with the ability to insist that they be punished.

It might be more me reading lawyerly types and Guardian articles that makes me think it's heretical then.

I think it's one of those realpolitik positions that make idealists think all foreign relations experts and national government officials are amoral assholes.  If you circulate in more idealistic circles, I can see how it would not seem to be a commonly-held belief.

[frunk]

I think it's somewhat naive to think dictators stay in power because they fear international criminal courts will come after them.  They stay in power because they can, and exile regardless of where it is is less than what they have now.

Any self respecting dictator has planned their exit strategy, but they aren't going to pull it unless all other options are exhausted.  International persecution isn't a major part of the calculation either way.

[Barrister]

I think it's somewhat naive to think dictators stay in power because they fear international criminal courts will come after them.  They stay in power because they can, and exile regardless of where it is is less than what they have now.

Any self respecting dictator has planned their exit strategy, but they aren't going to pull it unless all other options are exhausted.  International persecution isn't a major part of the calculation either way.

I disagree with multiple points here.

Dictators do fear international prosecution.  I think a guy like Putin is a perfect example.  He's 72 years old.  I'm fairly sure he'd love to retire by his dacha by the sea - but is deathly afraid that his political enemies will come after him the moment he gives up power.

We saw this in Gadaffi after all.  Not that he gave up power - but he gave up his nuclear weapons ambitions (remember - Doc Brown got his plutonium from the Libyans in Back to the Future).  He no longer had that card to play when the Arab Spring came for him.

I also disagree that most dictators have an exit strategy in mind.  In fact I can't think of any that did.  If you're a dictator you'll think you'll be a dictator forever (or at least until you can hand over to a trusted ally or child).  I don't think any of them have back-up plans.  I doubt very much Assad had a pre-existing plan to go to Syria.

[crazy canuck]

I also disagree that most dictators have an exit strategy in mind.  In fact I can't think of any that did.  If you're a dictator you'll think you'll be a dictator forever (or at least until you can hand over to a trusted ally or child).  I don't think any of them have back-up plans.  I doubt very much Assad had a pre-existing plan to go to Syria.

Think again about pretty much every South American dictator that has ever been in power.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Seems they found the doors to the underground concentration camp,but can't open them (?).

[Norgy]

Has anyone called Erdogan lately?

I tried, but he couldn't hear anything over the sound of all the artillery falling on SDF positions.

 

[viper37]

I think this is mostly a sign of how the Hezbollah have been weakened and a credit to Israel's military strength.

Backed by US weapons and support in the Red Sea to keep Iran and Yemen in check.

[viper37]

Here's a map of all the conflict locations and newsworthy spot in Syria:
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-december-21-an-air-strike-targets-the-city-of-deir-ezzor

At the top of the map, you can also switch to Israel-Palestine and Ukraine.

[Razgovory]

I think this is mostly a sign of how the Hezbollah have been weakened and a credit to Israel's military strength.

Backed by US weapons and support in the Red Sea to keep Iran and Yemen in check.

I'm so sorry.