Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[Valmy]

The world isn't black and white.

Sometimes you just have to accept Stalin because Hitler is worse, sure.

[Razgovory]

The world isn't black and white.

Sometimes you just have to accept Stalin because Hitler is worse, sure.

And some people thought Hitler would moderate when he came to power.

[Iormlund]

The Kurds are already under attack.  If Harris had won, we could defend them.  Now that Trump is coming in Rojava is doomed.  Unless Europe wants to stand up and fight for them.

Fat chance of that. Pissing Turkey off could end in millions of refugees getting into Europe.

We're barely helping Ukraine, and that's actually in our interest.

[Sheilbh]

Also Turkey is an ally who is really important geopolitically. The Black Sea matters, Turkey is important for European and (especially) Israeli energy security, there are western bases there which are important for the US position in the Middle East and Eastern Med, not to mention as Iorm says the EU are paying Turkey billions to keep migrants out of Europe (and Turkey is, it's always worth remembering, hosting more Syrian refugees than the entire EU) - plus Erdogan is not a comfortable ally but in many ways a useful one. I've mentioned before but Turkey is still the only interlocutor trusted by both the Russians and the Ukrainians when they need a backchannel - that's an important function. I'd also add that in this particular case I suspect with Erdogan's neo-Ottomanism China will be very interested because some of the forces Turkey have backed in Idlib are Uyghurs.

No (sensible) US government is going to write that off especially for a Kurdish state that can't offer any of those strategic advantages.

But thing I find kind of striking about this is that it was clearly planned and executed by Syrian forces despite this being the most international conflict going (with US, Israeli, Iranian, Saudi, GCC, Turkish, Russian etc involvement). Can't help but think it's of a pattern with Hamas launching an attack, from everything I've read without really notifying their partners, or Israel prosecuting their war despite US attempts to restrain them, or the Houthis again from what I've read launching assaults in a way that wasn't expected by anyone, or, for that matter, Ukraine resisting far more fiercely than I think many had anticipated. I feel like the framing of politics as basically all about great powers in one way or another - everyone else is just an irritant or puppet - is not helpful at this point. It seems to me there's a consistent surprise of agency in world politics right now (possibly because the existing Western order is breaking down and a replacement hasn't yet emerged).

[DGuller]

Seems like false hopes regarding Assad plane going down.  That said, he appears to be as useful as Yanukovich, there just to give credibility to Russian exile insurance policy.  I don't see how he can ever be a player in any way going forward.

[mongers]

Seems like false hopes regarding Assad plane going down.  That said, he appears to be as useful as Yanukovich, there just to give credibility to Russian exile insurance policy.  I don't see how he can ever be a player in any way going forward.

He's in Russia, the Kremlin spokesman has said they've given him and family humanitarian refugee.

[Zoupa]

But thing I find kind of striking about this is that it was clearly planned and executed by Syrian forces despite this being the most international conflict going (with US, Israeli, Iranian, Saudi, GCC, Turkish, Russian etc involvement). Can't help but think it's of a pattern with Hamas launching an attack, from everything I've read without really notifying their partners, or Israel prosecuting their war despite US attempts to restrain them, or the Houthis again from what I've read launching assaults in a way that wasn't expected by anyone, or, for that matter, Ukraine resisting far more fiercely than I think many had anticipated. I feel like the framing of politics as basically all about great powers in one way or another - everyone else is just an irritant or puppet - is not helpful at this point. It seems to me there's a consistent surprise of agency in world politics right now (possibly because the existing Western order is breaking down and a replacement hasn't yet emerged).

My opinion: you're overthinking this. Russian airpower and Hezbollah ground forces were what was keeping Assad in play. Both of these have been effectively nullified by Ukraine and Israel. The SAA was always a corrupt, dumb as hell "army". When they were still in Beyrouth, you could go through checkpoints by giving them Monopoly money and telling them it's USD. I've actually done this.

[mongers]

..snip...

My opinion: you're overthinking this. Russian airpower and Hezbollah ground forces were what was keeping Assad in play. Both of these have been effectively nullified by Ukraine and Israel. The SAA was always a corrupt, dumb as hell "army". When they were still in Beyrouth, you could go through checkpoints by giving them Monopoly money and telling them it's USD. I've actually done this.

Tres.

[DGuller]

What are the implications for Lebanon?  Could the rebels march on Lebanon to kick Hezbollah while it's down?

[Josquius]

This thread was interesting. Explains how the rebels were able to kick such butt.

https://bsky.app/profile/charleslister1.bsky.social/post/3lcl25jwtqs27

[crazy canuck]

What are the implications for Lebanon?  Could the rebels march on Lebanon to kick Hezbollah while it's down?

Hundreds of thousands of Syrians are coming back to Syria from Lebanon. I doubt very much that anyone in Syria has any interest in getting into a fight in Lebanon.

[Zanza]

From what I read, there are multiple powerful factions in Syria now. Damascus was actually not taken first by HTS, but rather Druzes and Arabs from Southern Syria. The Kurds are string and some other factions have influence too, like Alawites, Christians etc.. So it is not a given that HTS will be able to establish an Islamist state - if they even want that. With so many factions, the situation could also deteriorate after having won against the unifying common enemy Assad.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, although it seems they are currently collectively motivated to see if they can make a new society which is more tolerant of all the groups.  I hope they can achieve that.  They have a blank slate to work with.  With all the risks and challenges that brings.

[Tamas]

Sounds like a new Lebanon on a bigger scale.

[HVC]

From what I read, there are multiple powerful factions in Syria now. Damascus was actually not taken first by HTS, but rather Druzes and Arabs from Southern Syria. The Kurds are string and some other factions have influence too, like Alawites, Christians etc.. So it is not a given that HTS will be able to establish an Islamist state - if they even want that. With so many factions, the situation could also deteriorate after having won against the unifying common enemy Assad.

Sadly it's the perfect foundation for another civil war.