[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

Maybe the Liberals can also learn that people want somewhere to live more than freedom.

They are sandwiched between the most leftist parties asking for unrestricted immigration that increase the cost of lodging and the rightwing parties asking for an unrestricted economy that increase the cost of lodging.

[viper37]

Unless it comes out Poilievre sacrifices children or something, Trudeau is cooked.

Judging by Trump's victory, I think that would not deter his voters.

The most immediate concern I have is the tariffs Trump puts on trade with us.  But I am less concerned about that now that he won in Michigan and other border states.  Those states might now have more pull with him.

I don't think Trudeau benefits at all from Trump being elected. He can't say Trump is bad and so he can't saying PP is bad by association.

Michigan and other border States are the ones pushing for tariffs.  The big Unions are pro-tariffs.

[crazy canuck]

Link?

[Grey Fox]

Maybe the Liberals can also learn that people want somewhere to live more than freedom.

They are sandwiched between the most leftist parties asking for unrestricted immigration that increase the cost of lodging and the rightwing parties asking for an unrestricted economy that increase the cost of lodging.

That's a wide place to innovate from.

[Barrister]

So when Trump says he wants to put 10-20% tariffs on all imports - does he also mean oil?

That would seem kind of insane, given how the price of gasoline is so politically sensitive.

[viper37]

So when Trump says he wants to put 10-20% tariffs on all imports - does he also mean oil?

That would seem kind of insane, given how the price of gasoline is so politically sensitive.

If you're trying to decode what Trump really wants, you're going to go insane.

But Canada would be wise to seek other markets for our exports and (re)develop refining capabilities in Canada.

[Barrister]

So when Trump says he wants to put 10-20% tariffs on all imports - does he also mean oil?

That would seem kind of insane, given how the price of gasoline is so politically sensitive.

If you're trying to decode what Trump really wants, you're going to go insane.

But Canada would be wise to seek other markets for our exports and (re)develop refining capabilities in Canada.

Problem is both of those options would take a lot more than 4 years.

The Trans-Mountain Pipeline expansion (which again - just expanding an existing pipeline) took well over 10 years to build.  So same problem if we want to expand petroleum exports to Europe or Asia - it'll take a lot more than 4 years.

But the thing is - same thing is true for the US.  While they're now a net exporter of petroleum, they still import a shit-ton of it - because their own refineries are set up for the majority-Canadian imports they get.  They can't just turn a switch and stop importing Canadian petroleum either.

[viper37]

So when Trump says he wants to put 10-20% tariffs on all imports - does he also mean oil?

That would seem kind of insane, given how the price of gasoline is so politically sensitive.

If you're trying to decode what Trump really wants, you're going to go insane.

But Canada would be wise to seek other markets for our exports and (re)develop refining capabilities in Canada.

Problem is both of those options would take a lot more than 4 years.

The Trans-Mountain Pipeline expansion (which again - just expanding an existing pipeline) took well over 10 years to build.  So same problem if we want to expand petroleum exports to Europe or Asia - it'll take a lot more than 4 years.

But the thing is - same thing is true for the US.  While they're now a net exporter of petroleum, they still import a shit-ton of it - because their own refineries are set up for the majority-Canadian imports they get.  They can't just turn a switch and stop importing Canadian petroleum either.

Of course it does take more than 4 years.

But we just had the evidence that Trump wasn't just a one off blip.  It's a hard tendancy: Americans are over with democracy and free trade.

We need to adapt and we need to start now.

We need a plan to stop illegal immigration, we need to develop new markets, we need to count the US out as a reliable economic and military partner.  That's the new reliaty.

When the British took over Canada, they started building forts right after the American independence war, in case the Americans would try to invade again.  Fort Lévis, for example, never got to be used.  It took years to be built.  Fort Ingall is another one.  Never saw a canon or musket ball.  But the British tought the Americans would invade again.  (They kinda did after their little Civil War, but it wasn't officially sanctionned).

We need to plan for the worst, and the worst is a US pull out of NATO and NORAD and the disintegration of NAFTA.

We can't take anything for granted with Republicans and Republicans have seized power the next generation or two.

Adapt or die.

We are alone with an unpredictable neighbor that can decide right on January 21st to send a missile strike on Iran and send the prices of oil spiraling.  Better get used to it.

[Barrister]

Geography kind of forces us to be friends and trading partners though.  We literally can't decouple our economy from the US - far too much trade goes across the border.

We have free trade deals with dozens of countries now - but still the US takes the large majority of our products.  SImply because it's much easier to just ship something across the 49th parallel, rather than ship it across the globe.

[Grey Fox]

I am also worried about US tariffs towards China. I fear that distributors and companies, especially electronics, will just raise the Canadian price by the same %. It's going to be a brand new situation having electronics in Canada be priced at a lower than in the USA.