Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Agreed.  We're already too dependent on the PRC for battery and solar cell supplies.  Ceding another key piece of our energy decarbonization efforts to them would really put us in a tight spot.  The US and Europe need to build up their own EV construction capabilities, even if it costs more and slows down the transition.  I don't know the best way to do this, though.

[HVC]

Also, Sheilbh is a known China apologist

[Sheilbh]

Also, Sheilbh is a known China apologist

I'm just open to the possibility that they might actually achieve what they're setting out - and that talks of the inevitable flaws of authoritarian regimes and the perils of the middle income trap etc have value but may also just be, to nick a phrase, opiate for the elites

Although on climate I am absolutely a China apologist - I think the pace of achievement is extraordinary and it needs to be because it's the most important place in the world for any climate goals to be achieved. And also I do fundamentally find the whole conversation around "overproduction" and "overcapacity" in manufacturing of things like EVs or solar cells a bit weird. If we take climate seriously as an "emergency" then it feels a bit like panicking about "overproduction" of covid vaccines in 2021 or, perhaps, of artillery shells in 2024. I'm not really sure how it's a meaningful concept if we think climate is an "emergency". So it's perhaps less apologism than noting affordable EVs and installing twice as much renewable capacity than the rest of the world combined and thinking we should/need to be doing an awful lot more.

Agreed.  We're already too dependent on the PRC for battery and solar cell supplies.  Ceding another key piece of our energy decarbonization efforts to them would really put us in a tight spot.  The US and Europe need to build up their own EV construction capabilities, even if it costs more and slows down the transition.  I don't know the best way to do this, though.

I think that's a fair position - especially in the US or EU (though I think the EU position is more nuanced and there's very different views among member states). But I think it is worth acknowledging the trade off because I think there is one. It's a policy choice faster energy transition which is better for climate, but will have strategic consequences; or trying to re-industrialise the US especially (again I think the EU position is a little more nuanced) to decarbonise, but at the expense of energy transition. I think those trade-offs are - for the West - possibly the most important climate policy debate in our countries now.

I'm less convinced that the UK (or possibly Canada) can necessarily build a sufficient domestic industry - though I'm sure there are some greentech/decarbonisation sectors we could (and should) try to protect because we can build up our own strategic industry. So my instinct is that if you're not the EU or US, unless you absolutely have to put huge tariffs on China due to US pressure, there is more benefit to the relatively cheap EVs that can increase the pace of adoption and decarbonisation.

[Tonitrus]

They already make all our batteries, don't they?

I wouldn't be worried if it were just a similar situation the fears of cheap Japanese cars in the 70s/80s (and that was a friendly commercial rival). The connectedness and software dependency of today's modern cars is more of a concern, as each automaker's software is mostly proprietary.  What if we got in a tangle with the PRC and they were tell BDY "shut down all your cars in Nort America"?

[Josquius]

They already make all our batteries, don't they?

I wouldn't be worried if it were just a similar situation the fears of cheap Japanese cars in the 70s/80s (and that was a friendly commercial rival). The connectedness and software dependency of today's modern cars is more of a concern, as each automaker's software is mostly proprietary.  What if we got in a tangle with the PRC and they were tell BDY "shut down all your cars in Nort America"?

I wonder/hope that somewhere in the western defence setup they're quietly working on fixes for this scenario.
China has shut down all their BYD cars? Plug in this USB and update to a malware free OS.
Still, the potential in the moment of a 'all brakes suddenly drop to 50% power at 4 o'clock on the 3rd June' command is worrying- my gf's dad's recent trouble with his high tech Hyundai car because one computer amongst the myriad built in wasn't working really highlight the potential if this was malicious.

Hell. Its a wonder there isn't any sort of "Patriot but cheap" movement offering this kind of hack.

[Tamas]

They already make all our batteries, don't they?

I wouldn't be worried if it were just a similar situation the fears of cheap Japanese cars in the 70s/80s (and that was a friendly commercial rival). The connectedness and software dependency of today's modern cars is more of a concern, as each automaker's software is mostly proprietary.  What if we got in a tangle with the PRC and they were tell BDY "shut down all your cars in Nort America"?

It feels like the same inertia we had with Russian gas. Except I understand it less because using cheap natural gas to   pacify the population makes sense. But it's not like even Chinese EVs or EVs in general are this mass market things the poor depend on for their contentedness. But manufacturing jobs ARE things the poor depend on for their contentedness.

[Tonitrus]

And manufacturing jobs (and the entire infrastructure around it) are also a concern.  Bunches of poor, jobless workers can be as dangerous in China as in the US, if it prompts a nation towards war in order to settle them down.

[Norgy]

The major fault line in Norway between green and not green nowadays lies in the choice between untouched nature and windmill parks and solar panel parks. I think everyone realises we need to produce more energy, and there has been a slow upgrade in hydro power, but no new waterfalls ending up as hydro plants with dams. And we continue to supply EU countries with gas and so-so quality oil.

The older I get, the more I appreciate the less travelled paths out in the woods and mountains. So I can understand the resistance to windmills. But if we don't do something, there'll be hell to pay, as we are so far north, Scandinavia will be one of those viable spots for humanity. Thing is, we have no bloody fertile soil to grow food. 6-7 percent of Norway is arable land. This country has not been able to fully feed the population since the 9th century. The choice between windmills and solar panels and a future with grapevines in rural Norway is an easy one for me. I'll take the windmills despite low efficiency and huge changes in the landscape to my own vineyard and half of the world knocking at the door at our borders.

[Sheilbh]

The major fault line in Norway between green and not green nowadays lies in the choice between untouched nature and windmill parks and solar panel parks. I think everyone realises we need to produce more energy, and there has been a slow upgrade in hydro power, but no new waterfalls ending up as hydro plants with dams. And we continue to supply EU countries with gas and so-so quality oil.

Yeah - I think that's the divide that's starting to sharpen here.

Basically everyone is fundamentally pro-environment/environmentalist - but there is a split between I think people focused on conservation or decarbonisation. Because they're not necessarily the same. I think you're starting to see it in the Greens here.

[Josquius]

Real greens and hobbits.

[Norgy]

There is also a business aspect of this in Norway. The hydro plants were built with clause that the ownership would be communal. Solar parks and windmill parks are purely private projects with state capital funding. And tax breaks.

We're sitting on a huge pile of money, and the state mutual fund's CEO thinks Elon Musk is "an interesting guy". Yet we refuse to invest in the lowest hanging fruit: Energy saving with state money for people to buy new window panes, isolate better and make sure the roofs don't let all the heat out during winter.

I think the trade-off is hard. I love the Norwegian forests and the mountains. But we, who have benefited the most from oil wealth, should really do better. The Swedes and Danes do. And we followed the EU's 20/20/20 with little passion. But we did something.
Petrol prices are high here, but compared to a median wage it is dirt cheap compared to the rest of Europe. Almost 80 percent of new vehicles sold here are EVs. There are basically charging stations everywhere. We succeeded in that respect, and that was all through Labour government interventionism, striking all taxation on EVs.

And: If Norway, which has 6 months of winter, can survive with electric cars, so can the rest of Europe. They have even electrified larger vehicles like transport trucks and bulldozers.

Why do I mention this? Well, because it leads to more demand for energy.

Which is why I landed, uncomfortably, on the side of build windmills and solar parks.

[Josquius]

Surely solar in Norway is a terrible idea?
Even the south gets pretty horrid winters.
I guess you should get good off shore winds like the Scottish West Coast?

[Norgy]

Surely solar in Norway is a terrible idea?
Even the south gets pretty horrid winters.
I guess you should get good off shore winds like the Scottish West Coast?

Solar has actually shown to be cost-efficient here. Strange, innit?
We do build those off shore wind parks, but they are costly and there really is no telling if it pays off.

[crazy canuck]

Only China, the US and India emitted more carbon than Canada. How is that possible? Our forest fires.

Not sure what difference individual carbon reduction is going to make when the carbon stored in our trees is literally going up in smoke.

[grumbler]

Only China, the US and India emitted more carbon than Canada. How is that possible? Our forest fires.

Not sure what difference individual carbon reduction is going to make when the carbon stored in our trees is literally going up in smoke.

Carbon reduction will slow global warming, and global warming is a main factor in the increase in forest fires.

You could also just make your trees out of fireproof plastic.