Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

I am hoping they have indeed captured that gas pipeline connection and plan on holding it hostage.

Also: there are Western restrictions on launching some of their weapons from within Ukraine. Is there also a ban on launching them from Russia...?

[Josquius]

Thinking about it though I'm not sure what grabbing the gas pipelines gets them since it already goes through Ukraine after this.
I guess it's about causing damage and pushing up the Russian gas industries insurance?

[Tamas]

Thinking about it though I'm not sure what grabbing the gas pipelines gets them since it already goes through Ukraine after this.
I guess it's about causing damage and pushing up the Russian gas industries insurance?

I was thinking, either Russia doesn't dare touching them while they hold it, giving them a card to play in any negotiations, or Russia attacks them, and they destroy it before pulling out, blaming it on the Russians.

[Legbiter]

I was thinking, either Russia doesn't dare touching them while they hold it, giving them a card to play in any negotiations, or Russia attacks them, and they destroy it before pulling out, blaming it on the Russians.

Would be great if they can hold it thus bringing the war into russia.

[Grey Fox]

Maybe Ukraine takes the the Kursk NPP and trade it for the Zaporitzia one.

[Legbiter]

Ukrainians are using German armor in the Kursk battle. 

https://x.com/bopanc/status/1821496466545762605

[Syt]

Didn't go so well last time, though.

[Jacob]

I have a few semi-connected thoughts here...

1) As GF suggests - "we'll trade occupied Russia for occupied Ukraine" is a much better negotiation position than "let's stop fighting and you give back the bits of Ukraine you're occupying."

2) I've also read that Russia hasn't really fortified Russia, even the bits that are adjacent to Ukraine. This could make it easier for Ukraine to fight Russia in Russia, rather than trying to power through the fortified front within Ukraine.

3) This means Russia now either has to devote more resources to fortifying and defending inside Russia, resources which otherwise would've gone to strengthen their positions in Ukraine, or they'll accept that Ukraine freedom of action within Russia. Neither of which is ideal from a Putinist perspective. "How far can Ukraine push into Russia" is a question Russian military planners now have to answer and account for.

4) Morale wise it's definitely a bit of a boost for Ukraine - "let the Russians taste some of their own medicine" - and negative for Putin. He looks pretty weak, especially if he can't contain and reverse the Ukrainian gains.

5) I don't have a good grasp of the specific geography - but potentially controlling and harassing Russian border regions interferes with Russian logistics and staging, thus weakening their positions within Ukraine.

[Legbiter]

Didn't go so well last time, though.

Seems to be going better this time around. 

[Zanza]

The sheer magnitude of WW2 is hard to grasp for me. This war seems extremely intense to me, but if you compare numbers with WW2, it is somehow just a skirmish.

[Legbiter]

3) This means Russia now either has to devote more resources to fortifying and defending inside Russia, resources which otherwise would've gone to strengthen their positions in Ukraine, or they'll accept that Ukraine freedom of action within Russia. Neither of which is ideal from a Putinist perspective. "How far can Ukraine push into Russia" is a question Russian military planners now have to answer and account for.

4) Morale wise it's definitely a bit of a boost for Ukraine - "let the Russians taste some of their own medicine" - and negative for Putin. He looks pretty weak, especially if he can't contain and reverse the Ukrainian gains.

Yeah since Western support is so patchy and politically lukewarm the Ukrainians will have to bring the war into russia.

[Zoupa]

I still think it's not good news. The worse the situation gets for Ukraine, the more they'll be bringing the war on russian soil.

[Grey Fox]

I still think it's not good news. The worse the situation gets for Ukraine, the more they'll be bringing the war on russian soil.

Ukraine finally lets go of Soviet tactics and flanks the enemy and that's bad news?

[Jacob]

I still think it's not good news. The worse the situation gets for Ukraine, the more they'll be bringing the war on russian soil.

Can you expand your reasoning a bit more? I'm not sure I understand.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I saw some analysts claiming just last week that Russia may have functionally ran out of usable manpower, contradicting more common claims that Russia had filled its manpower gaps. Will be interested as more analysis comes out on that topic, as it could become a large issue.