Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

I think Joe Biden is treating Ukraine in good faith and does not want to see Ukraine defeated.

But I do think his administration has been vastly too cautious in supplying weaponry to Ukraine.  You might even call him cowardly.

We've just seen this time after time, in weapon system after weapon system - they say no a thousand times, but ultimately say yes.  From Abrams, to Patriot, to ATACMS, to F-16.  If the administration would have supplied those systems much earlier, and in much greater numbers, the situation on the ground would be significantly different, and it's hard to see what Putin would have done differently in response.

Yes. As a reminder, the US armed forces ordered 8100 Abrams tanks. 3450 of those are currently in storage.

They sent 31 to Ukraine.

So I'm probably more forgiving on Abrams.  It's a complicated tank, with a turbine engine.  As I understand it the US donated just a few Abrams in order to give cover to the Brits / Germans who gave much larger number of tanks.

A lot of the open weapons systems though... there was areal hesitation to give artillery.  ATACMS took well over a year.  Even when weapon systems were deployed they initial came with heavy restrictions on use.

It does feel like Biden is playing to make sure Ukraine doesn't lose - and not for Ukraine to win.  Which just means more casualties on both sides.

[Sheilbh]

Mainly the Germans. The UK was the first to donate tanks - but we have fuck all and no-one else uses it (I think maybe one or two of the Gulf monarchies), so I think it was of limited use practically but helpful in breaking the taboo (a role the UK's played a few times).

Germany was the big win - lots across Europe, most neighbouring countries use it so lots of spare parts/servicing capacity etc.

[Zanza]

The war seems to show that main battle tanks are fairly useless in a battlefield dominated by drones and minefields.

[DGuller]

I don't think they're useless, but they're definitely not decisive.

[Tonitrus]

Abrams is nice, but it is the Bradleys that seems to have really been shining (unless it is all over-hype)...give 'em lots of those.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

The war seems to show that main battle tanks are fairly useless in a battlefield dominated by drones and minefields.

Eh, this war shows that MBTs struggle when outside of a proper combined arms order of battle.  That's always been true, though.  Drones are a new challenge that needs to be dealt with, but their effectiveness in Ukraine is being amplified by the poor state of both armies.

[Josquius]

Yeah, they're not totally useless. If you have them keep them.
But are they something limited funds should be spent on?
Or are they something countries should be phasing out?

[Norgy]

The one good thing, at least for Norway, is that our weapons industry is on the up. A year or so back, we, well I, got a press invitation to see the M-72 missiles being tested. And, I can't say I regret saying "Yeah, I'll come, but you don't allow photos, do you?"
"Nah, we will send you some".
Then they had the whole thing mounted on a drone. I was just standing there, rather flabbergasted, watching that drone deliver its load onto a few car wrecks they'd brought in for good measure.

There is one more good thing: Ukrainian refugees cover a lot of the worker shortages in Norway. In rural Norway. Seems a bit unfair to have them all in Oslo, the government thought, so why not spread them out?

So the council where I live and work decided on 220 this year. Which, for a town of 32.000 is quite a lot. And they all need a place to stay, and the children need to go to school or pre-school.

This, in turn, has given us a bit of a boom. Things need to built etc.
They go through a quick language course and learn about Norwegian culture, and it is not working particularly well. But as far as I can tell, from my sources, they integrate well. And judging from the looks of the women, they probably pull up the make-up and hair-dye market by 200 percent even here. Everyone wants to be a blonde.
As if there was ever a lack of those in Norway.

[Sheilbh]

Clip via the FT's Moscow bureau chief - and I had no idea this sort of The Americans stuff was still a thing

max seddon
@maxseddon
The children of Anna and Artem Dultsev, the Russian deep cover spies returned home as part of the prisoner exchange, didn't know they were Russian until their plane took off for Moscow for the swap, the Kremlin says. They don't speak Russian, so Putin greeted them in Spanish.

[Josquius]

Clip via the FT's Moscow bureau chief - and I had no idea this sort of The Americans stuff was still a thing

max seddon
@maxseddon
The children of Anna and Artem Dultsev, the Russian deep cover spies returned home as part of the prisoner exchange, didn't know they were Russian until their plane took off for Moscow for the swap, the Kremlin says. They don't speak Russian, so Putin greeted them in Spanish.

Yeah, that struck me too.

Also, though it's not like Russia cares anymore, the optics of America getting back all these journalists, political prisoners, and wrong place at the wrong time people.... And Russia getting assassins and deep cover agents.

Though Biden looked a bit sad and opportunistic getting in on all these happy reunited families. And struggling to put on a pin. If he was still in the presidential running I can only imagine what they'd be saying.

[DGuller]

It does seem like Russia feels free to send spies and assassins all over the world, and if they get caught, they'll just round up enough random foreigners to get their spies and assassins back.

[HVC]

It does seem like Russia feels free to send spies and assassins all over the world, and if they get caught, they'll just round up enough random foreigners to get their spies and assassins back.

At some point the west just has to decide that maybe people dumb enough to go over aren't worth releasing actual dangerous people.

[Syt]

I'm sure these kids will have "a bit of a trust issue" in their future lives.

[crazy canuck]

Par for the course.  Look up the Vavilov story - The Americans was based on it.

[Jacob]

At some point the west just has to decide that maybe people dumb enough to go over aren't worth releasing actual dangerous people.

In that vein, there's a Danish dude who went to Russia because he didn't like "the turn of events in Europe" or some such. Then he signed papers to join the Russian army (though he claims he didn't understand what he signed because it was in Russian), because he thought it would help him with getting Russian citizenship. Now he's about to be sent to the Ukrainian front and that was never "in his plans" and he wants out. He's appealing for the Danish government to help him out.

There's probably not a lot of scope for help, though... I don't think the Russians are fond of Danish policy at the moment so there's unlikely to be any goodwill to be gained, and I don't think we have a lot of quo for a quid pro quo kind of deal either.