Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[The Minsky Moment]

Hard to say what is going on, but it is consistent with reports that Ukraine wants to pursue negotiations. We know Putin will take the position that seized areas should be annexed to Russia.  We also know Ukraine doesn't have the ability to drive Russia out.  But if Ukraine is able to hold some Russian territory, then they have an offset to Russian claims.

[Zoupa]

Hard to say what is going on, but it is consistent with reports that Ukraine wants to pursue negotiations. We know Putin will take the position that seized areas should be annexed to Russia.  We also know Ukraine doesn't have the ability to drive Russia out.  But if Ukraine is able to hold some Russian territory, then they have an offset to Russian claims.

I've seen no reports that Ukraine wants to pursue negotiations.

[crazy canuck]

There may be no reports but as a practical matter if they can negotiate a temporary peace which cedes little to no territory, then why not try?

[Jacob]

Another thought:

So far the trend in this war is that the party defending prepared positions have the advantage.

To gain ground and improve their overall strategic and bargaining positions, we've all assumed Ukraine would have to assault heavily entrenched Russian positions on Ukrainian soil. This has often come at a very high cost.

Instead, they've gone after lightly fortified Russian positions on Russian soil, at a seemingly lower cost.

Presumably Ukraine will fortify those positions, meaning Russia will have to expend a higher proportion of resources to get them back (and incidentally wreak the kind of complete destruction of infrastructure and remaining civilians that Ukraine has suffered).

To me it seems like Ukraine has procured a success (gaining land, strengthening their bargaining and strategic positions, improving Ukrainian morale) at a relatively low cost (compared to fighting on Ukrainian soil).

On top of this, this is creating additional dilemmas for Russian military planners (they'll have to devote more attention and resources to Russian border regions), and potentially complicates their logistics.

There's a danger of over extending or pushing too far, or being caught unawares by a Russian response - but at the moment that doesn't seem to be happening.

So personally I remain cautiously optimistic.

[Jacob]

There may be no reports but as a practical matter if they can negotiate a temporary peace which cedes little to no territory, then why not try?

A temporary truce benefits whichever party is closer to a collapse and that needs the time to rearm and reorganize.

I'm not in a position to say whether that is Ukraine or Russia, but if Ukraine believes Russia is in a tougher position, that could be a potential reason for "why not".

[Sheilbh]

A temporary truce benefits whichever party is closer to a collapse and that needs the time to rearm and reorganize.

I'm not in a position to say whether that is Ukraine or Russia, but if Ukraine believes Russia is in a tougher position, that could be a potential reason for "why not".

Yeah - also for all of the Western support financially (and the sanctions) Ukraine's economy has taken a vastly bigger hit than Russia's. I don't know that a "truce" is plausible - I think it is mobilised war economy or massive reconstruction project. I'm not sure there's an in between, while I think Russia could use a breather.

[grumbler]

To gain ground and improve their overall strategic and bargaining positions, we've all assumed Ukraine would have to assault heavily entrenched Russian positions on Ukrainian soil. This has often come at a very high cost.

Instead, they've gone after lightly fortified Russian positions on Russian soil, at a seemingly lower cost.

That's exactly what I was thinking. If Ukraine has the edge in mobile warfare, as the evidence seems to show, then attacks like this one play to their advantage.  If they dig in, less-mobile forces can defend these gains while the mobile forces regroup for another attack across the Russian border somewhere else.

This puts Russia in  cleft stick: if they try to defend the whole border, they'll not have the forces to continue the grinding attacks along the southern front.  OTOH, if they try to maintain their slow offensive in Ukraine, they will lose more territory in Russia.

[Sheilbh]

To gain ground and improve their overall strategic and bargaining positions, we've all assumed Ukraine would have to assault heavily entrenched Russian positions on Ukrainian soil. This has often come at a very high cost.

Instead, they've gone after lightly fortified Russian positions on Russian soil, at a seemingly lower cost.

That's exactly what I was thinking. If Ukraine has the edge in mobile warfare, as the evidence seems to show, then attacks like this one play to their advantage.  If they dig in, less-mobile forces can defend these gains while the mobile forces regroup for another attack across the Russian border somewhere else.

This puts Russia in  cleft stick: if they try to defend the whole border, they'll not have the forces to continue the grinding attacks along the southern front.  OTOH, if they try to maintain their slow offensive in Ukraine, they will lose more territory in Russia.

Yeah I agree. I know nothing about this stuff but I'm not sure I get the desperate last assault comparison. It seems more like trying to open a front or attack in a less expected area - and asking the Russians those questions.

[The Minsky Moment]

I've seen no reports that Ukraine wants to pursue negotiations.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/europe/ukraine-russia-peace-mood.html

Some excerpts

In mid-July, a survey by the Ukrainian independent media outlet ZN.UA found that about 44 percent of Ukrainian civilians favored starting official talks with Russia. On July 23, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released a poll showing that nearly a third of Ukrainians would agree to cede some territory to Russia to end the war. That's more than three times as many as the year before.

Russia was not invited to Switzerland in June for the first international peace summit, a 92-country gathering meant to promote Ukraine's vision for how the war should end. Since then, Ukraine has publicly signaled that Russia should come to the next one, and Mr. Zelensky, in an interview with the BBC, expressed hope for a diplomatic solution.

Ukraine's foreign minister was in Beijing this month expressing a willingness to have China play a more central role in peace negotiations, and on Wednesday Ukraine invited China's top diplomat to visit Kyiv.

[Zoupa]

Ukraine has a 10 points plan as a minimum baseline to start talks. I will list them here so we can see how viable any talks would be with the kremlin:

• Nuclear safety, especially that of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
• Food security for Asian and African countries
• Energy security and restoration of Ukraine's energy infrastructure
• Release of all prisoners and the return of Ukrainian children deported to Russia
• Restoration of the Russia–Ukraine border to that prior to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, in line with Article 2 of the Charter of the United Nations
• Full withdrawal of Russian military forces from Ukraine and cessation of hostilities
• Prosecution of war crimes in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including the creation of a special tribunal for Russian war crimes
• Assessment of ecological damage, including that caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam; prosecution of those responsible; recovery and reconstruction
• Guarantees against future Russian aggression
• A multilateral peace conference with a legally binding international treaty.

[The Minsky Moment]

That's the plan, until it changes.

[Zoupa]

That's the plan until the West gets bored and hangs them out to dry, yes.

[Josquius]

They may say that but it's clearly insane.
No way would anyone withdraw from territory they're holding before negotiations. It's purposefully weakening your position.

A lot is made of how Russia wants peace so it can rebuild and have another go in a few years time.... But I do wonder whether that actually would work out for them given theyre already pushing things to the max under a war economy and the west is really ramping up.

Leaving so many Ukrainians to suffer under Russia, rewarding aggression, etc... is not good at all but I do suspect a theoretical war on hold to be restarted later in the decade would be in Ukraines favour - and I would imagine Russia would know this too and not be keen to restart things.

[Tamas]

This Russian youtuber I watch at times, had some interesting local Kursk footage he found on Telegram and the like. Best one was a group of civilians gathering to plead into the (mobile) camera to Putin to come and save them, saying they have supported the Special Military Operation and they now need help they have had to flee etc. One thing they were saying is that they knew a large Ukrainian armored force was gathering on the border, the news spread among local Russians on Telegram.

I assume if the border villages noticed the troop concentration the Russian army had to notice it as well. Maybe they truly had no troops to spare with having been feeding them to meatgrinders.

Also the guy mentioned some (official, I think?) news about Wagner mercenaries being flown from Africa to fight in Kursk.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Ukraine matters also mentioned the Wagnerites being flown in from Africa to kursk