2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[jimmy olsen]

Forgot about this thread, transferring this post from the Trump thread to here.

https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1811799775550841202

With good new polling over the past few days Biden is now at 271 in the 538 election forecast model 3/

[jimmy olsen]

Far worse.

Because it's clear from all the polling that this is something that's a concern for voters and Biden's party is divided. I'm also not sure they have covered themselves in glory letting it get to this stage.

My own feeling is that it's very, very sad for Biden on an individual but pretty grim that senior Democrats, White House aides, his inner circle let it get to this stage. Because - tragically - I don't think there's a dignified way out any more.

Biden talks about his record and feels he is entitled to run because of that - and it is impressive and would be remembered. But ultimately voters can't get past these gaffes and the questions of competence (in all senses) to listen to the stuff about the record. And I think that'll also be the historic memory - not the impressive first term, but this ending.

He's always been like this

https://x.com/ChrisDJackson/status/1811531634321068066?t=YqmvsnKQjV3qNbUzv-ahow&s=19

Flashback 2008: Senator Biden introduces Senator Obama as "Barack America."

[Tamas]

Tim, stop it. Was he also staring blankly and talking very slowly when doing it in 2008?

[Josquius]

Tim, stop it. Was he also staring blankly and talking very slowly when doing it in 2008?

Overall he has definitely declined but it is fair to say the current fuss focussed on the misspeaking is just Joe as usual.

I do think he's getting treat harsher than he deserves over his speaking problems. I can sympathise as a shit speaker.
But with the way things he absolutely is being painted this way and it's sticking. It is clear he should step aside.

[Sheilbh]

He's always been like this

I know that. I just don't think it matters (and if anything comes across as gaslighting to voters' clear concern).

[frunk]

He's always been like this

I know that. I just don't think it matters (and if anything comes across as gaslighting to voters' clear concern).

I think it does matter.  There's a narrative being built up that Biden is significantly less capable now than in the past, where both the magnitude and severity of that decline is being severely overstated.

[Sheilbh]

But as I say his party's split, the public clearly consider it an issue and regardless of the level of decline it is visible. I think that's the reality the Democrats are in now.

On that narrative I think we're in a spiral. I think the end is probably inevitable and obvious and for everyone's sake it would be best to get there quickly and try to do it with some dignity for Biden.

There are huge problems with it, I admit. If Biden steps down then every senior Democrat will (rightly) be asked if they ever had any suspicions, how was he in private meetings, when did they know and why didn't they raise it publicly. I think it could even be challenging if it's framed as a health issue to carry on as President (this is possibly why you maybe need elected Democrats to speak out so he can do it in the LBJ way - "it's clear I don't have the support of my party"). But I think all of those problems are better than carrying on as currently - and hoping either it'll just go away or that it's possible to convince the public what they can see isn't happening/doesn't matter.

[HVC]

"He's been in a cognitive decline for 20 years" doesn't seem like a great selling point

[garbon]

"He's been in a cognitive decline for 20 years" doesn't seem like a great selling point

Given that isn't the argument...

[Norgy]

Biden being the safe option is simply scary.

[Tamas]

He's always been like this

I know that. I just don't think it matters (and if anything comes across as gaslighting to voters' clear concern).

I think it does matter.  There's a narrative being built up that Biden is significantly less capable now than in the past, where both the magnitude and severity of that decline is being severely overstated.

Not so sure. In 2020 he had no trouble with Trump in their debate. Now he was a trainwreck.

[Grey Fox]

His cognitive decline might be at the expected rate for an 80 year old man. What I find extremely worrying is that he seems extremely weak and easily tired.

[viper37]

His cognitive decline might be at the expected rate for an 80 year old man. What I find extremely worrying is that he seems extremely weak and easily tired.

Early form of dementia.  Which is why they tested him for Parkinson.  Can't differentiate both without a deep brain scan, and he likely won't submit to this.

And not all 80 yo have cognitive decline like that.

[Legbiter]

Biden being the safe option is simply scary.

It's quite funny, there is no conceivable way a very visibly senile 81 year old would ever be trusted with high office in national politics in the Nordic countries. It would rapidly be remarked on by members of the public when interacting with him and his own party would swiftly remove him.

Still, a Jill Biden regency will be preferable to perhaps a majority of Americans when they vote. It's going to be a coin toss basically.

I also think the surrounding system has now had at least 2 presidential terms to adjust to a weak and fickle president. Biden's term was quite good, the administration was more Trump than Trump ever was in terms of domestic industrial policy for instance. A mummified second term Biden will probably be good for the US. It's an incredible flex if you think about it. Our consul is a vegetable but we're still gonna crush it.

[jimmy olsen]

His cognitive decline might be at the expected rate for an 80 year old man. What I find extremely worrying is that he seems extremely weak and easily tired.

He's working full days as president of the United States. Of course he's going to be tired by that.

Much younger men have been tired by that. Bush 43 went to bed a 9pm everyday and he was 55 when he became president.