2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Barrister]

Newsom, Shapiro and Whitmer look like the best options. Joe should get out of the race ASAP to give enough time to sort it out. Electability should be sole criterion at this point. If Joe really cares about family first, this is the best option; either way, when the election ends, he can pardon Hunter without any fallout.

It's about what is possible though.

It's one thing for Joe to step down.  When it comes down to who his successor would be though Harris is the most obvious one as VP.  Problem is if you're trying to pass the nomination to any of Newsome, Shapiro or Whitmer (who I agree are probably better campaigners) all without any kind of vote.

My post was not an endorsement of Harris - I think it was pretty obviously not.  But I think even Harris probably stands a better chance to beat Trump than Biden.

[crazy canuck]

It would not be without a vote.  The democratic convention has not yet been held.  If Biden releases his delegates then it will become an open convention where anyone could be elected to be the party's candidate for President.

[grumbler]

The vote to elect the candidate hasn't happened yet, so Biden stepping down now doesn't invalidate any election.

I'll still pull for Mayor Pete as the new candidate.  He's a great stump speaker and a debate between him and Trump would be be both a rout and a riot.  He's been on Fox News several times and just crushed their various hosts.

Those who would not vote for him because he's gay weren't voting Democratic anyway.

[crazy canuck]

Post debate polling confirms fears.  Trump ahead by 9 points!

Gifted link for full article

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/02/opinion/thepoint?unlocked_article_code=1.4U0.NngL.e3zK4Rtcll0H&smid=url-share

[Valmy]

I mean the polling was horrendous anyway. We were already headed to probable defeat even if Biden did a good job debating.

[The Minsky Moment]

Pete would do just fine; the one knock I see is that his highest elective office is mayor of a small city.

Whitmer and Shapiro are governors who have proven they can win in key states the Democrats need to win.

Newsom brings no geographic advantage but he is poised and proven he can take the heat of a national election.

[viper37]

Pete would do just fine; the one knock I see is that his highest elective office is mayor of a small city.

Whitmer and Shapiro are governors who have proven they can win in key states the Democrats need to win.

Newsom brings no geographic advantage but he is poised and proven he can take the heat of a national election.

I heard a political commentator on tv saying that Kamala Harris stood the best chance because she was a known quantity, while anyone else would be unknown to the general public and would have great difficulty getting itself known to the general public by election time.

I find it strange, given the allegations against Harris about her workplace environment.

But what do I know.

[Valmy]

Is she a known quantity? The fact she has been all but invisible during this campaign speaks volumes to me. She isn't even good at doing political stuff as VP. With all these questions about Biden having her out there doing rallies and telling everyone what an amazing president Joe is would be useful. To get some energy behind the ticket.

But she is nowhere to be found. Biden clearly doesn't think much of her.

[Sophie Scholl]

Yeah. Something definitely feels off there. Biden doesn't like her, the Democratic leadership doesn't like her, or maybe both. It is very strange, though, and adds to the unease I feel about the whole Biden team at this point.

[Sheilbh]

Not to be a cynic but if you're Biden, in your eighties, or his team - do you really want your VP out there getting some energy behind the campaign (or your administration)? Wouldn't it just draw a sharper contrast and, even if unintended (but inevitable), feel like someone trying to showboat or overshadow the president/nominee?

Biden has to have a VP. They almost certainly have to be younger. That's always going to be a challenging relationship.

[Sophie Scholl]

Maybe? But it isn't like her disappearing is a recent thing. She has barely been seen or utilized the entire term. When he was running for the nomination in 2019, there was a lot of coverage with heavy suggestions of him not seeking a second term and grooming a successor with his VP pick, apparently two things that very much have not happened>

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129

[Admiral Yi]

I think our expectations have been warped by Cheney.  VPs are historically invisible.  If it wasn't for Burisma and Hunter Joe would have been invisible.  AlGore was invisible except when he claimed to invent the internet and got busted for making a fund raising call on an official phone.

[Admiral Yi]

Newsom brings no geographic advantage but he is poised and proven he can take the heat of a national election.

He does have a gorgeous head of hair.

[Tamas]

Michelle Obama is needed because otherwise skipping a black woman has terrible optics.

[viper37]

Is she a known quantity? The fact she has been all but invisible during this campaign speaks volumes to me. She isn't even good at doing political stuff as VP. With all these questions about Biden having her out there doing rallies and telling everyone what an amazing president Joe is would be useful. To get some energy behind the ticket.

But she is nowhere to be found. Biden clearly doesn't think much of her.

Yeah, I found the comment strange and can't get it from my head.  We haven't seen her during Biden's mandate, we haven't seen her during the campaign except one tiny comment, so really, what does he mean?

Besides, Democrats are going to vote for her.  That's roughly 40% of the people there.  You need the swing vote.

Who can get those swing voters?  And who are the swing voters?

I see the swing voters as:
1) the far left concerned that Biden isn't progressive enough
2) the pro Palestinians, mostly Muslims concerned that Biden isn't doing enough toward Palestine / against Israel
3) disillusioned Republicans who don't want Trump
4) people who vote Republican one election and Democrat the other, depending on issues


On #1 and #2, Harris will be seen as the same as Biden.  On #3, I'm not so certain Harris can make her mark there.  She's a black-Asian woman and these people would still prefer a white male, but they'll go with anyone who's seen as competent.  Kamala does not look like she is.

On #4, this is where it hurts: she seems like she has a baggage and she can easily be attacked.