[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[HVC]

Yeah, who is going to volunteer to tank their career by replacing dear leader and losing epically

[Jacob]

Is Kim Campbell still around?

[HVC]

Is Kim Campbell still around?

Wrong party . And at least she got to become a trivia question answer. next schlub won't even get that.

[crazy canuck]

BB is in extreme denial by claiming that Mark Carney and Freeland have no public profile.

But I think it's now too late for anyone to take over from Trudeau.  it could be the most amazing person that everybody knows but it's too late to clean house in the Liberal party and remove the rot that has occurred under Trudeau.  The voters would have no confidence that they're not just electing the same group of inept people.

[Jacob]

Is Kim Campbell still around?

Wrong party . And at least she got to become a trivia question answer. next schlub won't even get that.

Depends on who the schlub is, I expect.

And if it's Kim Campbell again, it'll totally up her trivia uniqueness

[Barrister]

Is Kim Campbell still around?

Wrong party  

Are you sure about that?

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kim-campbell-becomes-darling-of-the-liberals-after-attacking-poilievre

[HVC]

Hey, guess even conservatives can have breaking points

[Josephus]

There's also the natural cycle to take into account. Even with another leader the Liberals have only a slim chance to win the next election. Might as well wait after it to pitch your tent for the leadership.

And on this another side on BB's point 1 - I think that even if you want to take over, you might think it would be better to let Trudeau own the defeat and come in with a clean slate.

I said this exact same thing months ago. No point in taking over the leadership now only to get clobbered in an election.

[crazy canuck]

Although they have reached the point that damage mitigation is the goal for the Liberals now. 

It makes no sense for someone on the outside to come in now.  But someone who is already there can make the argument that things would have been worse if they had not stepped up to replace the deeply unpopular Trudeau.

[Barrister]

There's also the natural cycle to take into account. Even with another leader the Liberals have only a slim chance to win the next election. Might as well wait after it to pitch your tent for the leadership.

And on this another side on BB's point 1 - I think that even if you want to take over, you might think it would be better to let Trudeau own the defeat and come in with a clean slate.

I said this exact same thing months ago. No point in taking over the leadership now only to get clobbered in an election.

There's an obvious counter-example though, right from Trudeau Sr's history.  He left office in 1984 (or was it 1983).  His successor, John Turner, promptly got destroyed in the election, with the PCs winning the biggest majority ever.

I don't think anyone blamed Turner though, and he remained on as Liberal Party leader into the 1988 federal election.

If you're ambitious there's worse things then taking one on the chin in order to get the leadership long term.

[crazy canuck]

That didn't take long, contenders are starting to make themselves known.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/frank-baylis-liberal-leadership-replace-justin-trudeau-1.7246713

[Sheilbh]

There's an obvious counter-example though, right from Trudeau Sr's history.  He left office in 1984 (or was it 1983).  His successor, John Turner, promptly got destroyed in the election, with the PCs winning the biggest majority ever.

I don't think anyone blamed Turner though, and he remained on as Liberal Party leader into the 1988 federal election.

If you're ambitious there's worse things then taking one on the chin in order to get the leadership long term.

Also we have had much Canada 93 content in the UK for the last year or two. Really interesting thing is if you look at the polling in the run-up to that election...it almost worked. Would love people's memories of how and why it shifted?

Edit: Wiki has it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election

This has usually been done from a "the Tories are even more fucked than you can possibly imagine" perspective

[crazy canuck]

There's an obvious counter-example though, right from Trudeau Sr's history.  He left office in 1984 (or was it 1983).  His successor, John Turner, promptly got destroyed in the election, with the PCs winning the biggest majority ever.

I don't think anyone blamed Turner though, and he remained on as Liberal Party leader into the 1988 federal election.

If you're ambitious there's worse things then taking one on the chin in order to get the leadership long term.

Also we have had much Canada 93 content in the UK for the last year or two. Really interesting thing is if you look at the polling in the run-up to that election...it almost worked. Would love people's memories of how and why it shifted?

Edit: Wiki has it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election

This has usually been done from a "the Tories are even more fucked than you can possibly imagine" perspective

Kim Campbell was a popular B.C. provincial politician.  She tried to make the shift to federal politics and failed spectacularly.  She ran a dreadful election campaign and even took time off to be with her new lover.

The PC's needed a strong election campaigner in that moment and they got the exact opposite.

[Barrister]

There's an obvious counter-example though, right from Trudeau Sr's history.  He left office in 1984 (or was it 1983).  His successor, John Turner, promptly got destroyed in the election, with the PCs winning the biggest majority ever.

I don't think anyone blamed Turner though, and he remained on as Liberal Party leader into the 1988 federal election.

If you're ambitious there's worse things then taking one on the chin in order to get the leadership long term.

Also we have had much Canada 93 content in the UK for the last year or two. Really interesting thing is if you look at the polling in the run-up to that election...it almost worked. Would love people's memories of how and why it shifted?

Edit: Wiki has it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election

This has usually been done from a "the Tories are even more fucked than you can possibly imagine" perspective

Canada 93 was the first election I actually worked on.  I was also President of the U of Manitoba Reform club so I followed it very closely.

From your link you can tell the PCs were always mostly fucked.  By 1990 the recession had hit and you can see the PCs polling under 20% the entire time.  There was also the introduction of the GST which was very unpopular, together with Meech Lake / Charlottetown which was divisive.

You also see the emergence of new parties.  Reform existed in 1988  but was only at 1-2% nationally.  By 1990 or so you see they're up to 8-10% - and in a regionally focused party.  BQ also came into existance in another regionally focused party.

So look - you can see that the Liberals were pretty much always going to win the election.  They were polling around the 40% level for the two years earlier.

So come Feb 93 Mulroney resigns.  He had become pretty unpopular, so PCs get a bit of a bump already.  Kim Campbell comes along and wins the party leadership.  She was seen as a breath of fresh air.  She was young (only mid-40s), a woman, and attractive.  So you see that large bump summer of 1993 where they come close to the Liberals.

But it was always kind of a mirage.  Back then in the days of limited media coverage (and no social media) Campbell got lots of coverage and got a definite bump after becoming PM.  But it was a mirage because it was at odds with what the PCs had been consistently polling at the prior two years.

Then during the campaign, Campbell made some gaffs.  She said unemployment was going to stay high for awhile, and said 'campaigns are no time to talk about policy'.  Nearer the end the PCs made some ads about Liberal leader Jean Chretien which were perceived as making fun of his facial paralysis.  And also - I really can't even remember what exactly Campbell was running on in terms of a platform.  Liberals on the other hand flooded the country with their "Red Book" detailing their policies (we in Reform had something similar - Liberals in fact stole it from our "Little Blue Book").

So two observations - one which might give Sunak's crew some despair, and one to give some hope.

1. Despite the post-leadership bump I don't think the PCs were ever going to win that election.  Liberals had been consistently in the 40% range, which is majority territory.

2. You'll notice though that if the PCs had stayed at the 20% level it was going to be bad, but not an annihilation.  What killed them was the last minute surge in support for Reform / BQ.  Those parties were knew so I think in part it took the election campaign for people to get comfortable voting for those parties.  But even then at the end of the election it was BQ 54 seats, Reform 52 seats, and the PCs 2 seats - despite the fact they all polled roughly at the same level.  This is where FPTP killed the PCs - they had a thin level of support across the country, while Western-focused Reform (and Quebec-focused BQ) could rack up the wins.  (and I can mention that Atlantic Canada was one of the strongest areas for Liberals anyways, and that in Ontario while Reform was western-focused they did run candidates in Ontario and pulled enough support for Liberals to win the vote splits).

So it's that second factor that makes me think the Tories are going to have a bad run of it, but not get destroyed - because you don't have those regionally-focused parties that can win elections despite comparatively smaller voting totals.  In order for Tories to get destroyed they'd need Reform (UK) to start well-outpolling the Tories.  While the Reform and Tory numbers are starting to get close I don't think large numbers of people will vote for Farage at the end of the day.

[Barrister]

Kim Campbell was a popular B.C. provincial politician.  She tried to make the shift to federal politics and failed spectacularly.  She ran a dreadful election campaign and even took time off to be with her new lover.

The PC's needed a strong election campaigner in that moment and they got the exact opposite.

OK, so I unhid CC's post.  No surprise I both agree and disagree with him.

Campbell's "shift" to federal politics was not a spectacular failure.  She was a successful justice minister.  I'll take CC's word when he says she was a successful politician in BC, but I would note she was only a backbench MLA.  In federal politics she quickly rose through the ranks from being a junior minister, to Justice minister, finally being minister of national defence (one of the most senior jobs).  She then won the PC leadership pretty handily (although there was a late surge from Jean Charest).  UP th that point she had been quite successful on the federal scene.

But then yes - she was a bad campaigner.  She was untested at the national level.  The Party so much wanted a fresh face they never really asked questions beyond that.