Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Sheilbh, thank you for posting that article on Blunt.  Brilliant read. 

Glad you enjoyed - no idea if it's true and we'll never know. But I find it interesting

Do lady spies just get off easier? Poor weak willed woman led astray and what not.

I don't think so. So I was looking into this because my sense is there are very few prosecutions for espionage (here, at least - it may be different elsewhere) and I don't think it's a gender issue. There's a fair few cold war era spies who have been uncovered in the last 30 years and not prosecuted (I don't think there's a statute of limitations) - and, interestingly, there has never been a prosecution for someone spying for the PRC.

My suspicion is that without the cooperation of the intelligence services it's very difficult for the police and prosecutors to put together the evidence they'd need for an espionage prosecution and the intelligence services don't want to cooperate because of what would end up in the public domain/it's embarrassing.

And then there's not a groundswell of public revulsion/anger forcing their hand.

[Josquius]

Local elections and seeming quite big locally with the mayor of the north east (we really should use a better term than mayor) being elected.

As you may remember labours selection process was.... Political. With the current north of Tyne mayor, a Corbynite, blocked from running for selection.
He then went off and said he'd run as an independent.

I was concerned. Would this split the labour vote and let a tory nobody likes sneak through.
The campaign booklet I got though the door only had 4 of the candidates printing their views with the fascists and greens not bothering.
Official labour and driscoll were much of a muchness in terms of their offer. Very very good transport policies. Standardising public transport ticketing London style is a big one that doesn't require building anything. Though they promised building g too.
 A bit sillier for driscoll and with a QR code that doesn't work linking to a 80s feeling map



I think the 80s feel may like in its sea and it's similarity to the old Tyne and wear flag.
 

My pet project isn't there and instead there's the big one which just isn't practical but hey. It's something.

The lib dem iirc had less transit focus but promised the same core good stuff on ticketing but also lots of mad but awesome green investment promises - which is rich from them after their part in the destruction of low traffic neighbourhoods in Newcastle.

The tory also said some of the same bits on ticketing... But with some very sus words about not penalising motorists.

I have had big worries this shit could cut through and with the split labour vote... Thankfully (?) coverage of this election has been almost non existent.

It turns out... The two Labour candidates are  running neck a neck according to polls. .


https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/north-east-mayor-bombshell-poll-29077770

I've read online the tory branch office in north tyneside has conceded the race and has a vote driscoll poster up.

I still have my money on the official labour candidate. Actual election day, Thursday, is when you'll see the labour forever voters turn out many of whom won't have even heard of driscoll.

But still. A potential for upset which isn't actually that upsetting.

[Sheilbh]

I saw some interesting polling on that with Driscoll actually drawing a lot of support from Tories and others which seems odd given he's the more left-wing slightly Corbynite candidate (I actually like him a lot and think he's very interesting). But maybe not too surprising.

I feel like Ken Livingstone won his first mayoral campaign with a lot of Tory votes in London and I think in the local mayoral races there is a strong "f u" attitude to central parties trying to rig their selections and more openness to independents.

Just saw YouGov's polls which look like it'll be tight but the Tories seem likely to hold both the West Midlands and Teesside mayoralties too (although interesting quite how local and personal appeal based those campaigns have gone). I suspect it'll be a bit like the Uxbridge byelection happening at the same as the others. The broad picture across the country will be disastrous for the Tories (and broadly in line with the polling) but the media and party will focus on two local and very context specific races to suggest that maybe they're starting to recover. Which won't help/will give them a false sense of hope.

[Josquius]

The tories holding teesside would suck. Real emperors new clothes situation there with him seeming so wonderful with his populist policies... But then completely failing to actually deliver anything but massive corruption.

Interesting on the green candidate there dropping out too late for the greens to pick another candidate (I can't recall if she will still be on the ballot) and saying she didn't want to split the anti tory vote.

I know nothing of west midlands. I guess they're really thumping the incompetent bankrupt Labour, central government is blameless, point?

[Sheilbh]

The tories holding teesside would suck. Real emperors new clothes situation there with him seeming so wonderful with his populist policies... But then completely failing to actually deliver anything but massive corruption.

There is a bit of me that quite likes him

It's a strand of almost Tory Gaullism that I think is fair enough. And maybe there's a bit of corruption (although as a follower of Liverpool politics I'm not sure that it's more than normal for local government). At this point I'd take a bit of corruption, avoid public procurement laws and do something over public procurement route and 5 years before anything happens.

Interesting on the green candidate there dropping out too late for the greens to pick another candidate (I can't recall if she will still be on the ballot) and saying she didn't want to split the anti tory vote.

My guess is that she'd still be on the ballot. Like the Labour candidate for Rotherham even though they pulled their support for him - past the deadline the ballot is fixed.

I know nothing of west midlands. I guess they're really thumping the incompetent bankrupt Labour, central government is blameless, point?

Andy Street is former CEO of John Lewis, he's been quite good and has a very distinct brand that is separate from the wider Tories. He is very much running a personal campaign - right down to green leaflets that make no mention of the national party, see also his campaign site:
https://www.andystreet.org.uk/

Although I'm pretty happy blaming the central government for a lot of problems in local government. But Birmingham City Council has, I believe the country's largest unequal pay bill to settle (well over £1 billion) which they fought to the Supreme Court rather than trying to settle with the unions. And their flagship IT migration (projected to save £100 million and boost productivity) is late, not currently working and projected to be £120 million over-budget. The Labour party there has a reputation for a lot of in-fighting and a really toxic very macho culture (which is so bad it stands out even among Labour local parties). In terms of local issues being a real factor I think it makes sense in the West Midlands (though I'd guess Birmingham will still vote Labour and Street will rely on the other parts of the region).

[Sheilbh]

So Sunak did a decent bit of social media content going for a run with "the hardest geezer" guy (although I'm a traditionalist so I personally feel that a Tory Prime Minister should either not know who someone called the "hardest geezer" is, or should be rallying the local yeomanry to shoot him) - also quite interesting (and not for the first time) to see Sunak talk about his Hinduism and how important dharma is for him personally. Then just days later this which is the most baffling clip I've ever seen from a politician. Aside form the Community Note I can't really understand what it's supposed to mean. It makes no sense to me. I don't know if I'm missing something
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1784860222806266011

[Josquius]

I guess he's known for not eating on Mondays and just drinking water or tea. Some sort of play on that with... Now i cheat and this % of milk like a tax cut?


Mayors - oh I've heard of street. Hadn't factored him into things. He does indeed seem popular.

Birmingham indeed wasn't a well run council and had lots of issues of its own making. But it's not the only council facing this kind of problem. The connecting factor is clear.

As to houchen... How on earth could you like him?
As I say some of what he talks about sounds good in theory. Bringing the airport into public ownership, redeveloping horrific brown field land.... But it's all just smoke and mirrors. Little of actual merit.

[Sheilbh]

They did bring the airport into public ownership and even Teesside freeport there is ground being broken on projects. Worth noting elected mayors aren't dictators - they need the support of the leaders of the borough councils in the region and Houchen may be Tory, but four of the five borough council leaders are Labour and they've been voting unanimously on a lot of this.

I also quite like that he has kept banging the drum for levelling up and the need to spend money while Sunak has very much dialled that down - and that the average punter expects things to be done/spade in ground within a five year term, not just a series of statutory consultations and public procurement tenders (now snarled up in judicial review, regrettably).

Plus, last poll I saw he had about two thirds in the region thinking he was doing a good job.

There is a long-term problem that sclerosis like we have can make corruption seem like the less bad option - at least it gets things done. Airport nationalised (now passenger numbers up by 1/3 since the private operator went bust and more routes), projects being built in the Freeport, nationalise the iconic hotel dominating the waterfront to stop it becoming a derelict empty shell. May be shady stuff happening round the sides to do this but it is doing stuff and more than 90% of Tory levelling up projects where the money still hasn't been spent because it's out for consultation, procurement rounds etc.

[Gups]

If it wasn't for the fact that losing those two races might precipitate an early general election, I wouldn't mind Street and Houchen winning (though I don't know that much about the latter). Local elections shouldn't be a referendum on the national government. If they are, there's no accountabiility and no point to having more devolution.

[Sheilbh]

If it wasn't for the fact that losing those two races might precipitate an early general election, I wouldn't mind Street and Houchen winning (though I don't know that much about the latter). Local elections shouldn't be a referendum on the national government. If they are, there's no accountabiility and no point to having more devolution.

I did enjoy this leaflet doing the rounds from the Swanage Conservative Party very much making that point


I've seen lots of people saying the Tories in their area are running as "Local Conservatives" on their leaflets and trying to create as much distance with them and the government as possible.

I think devolution is good on its own terms. But also that its only when figures are prominent enough, able and willing to use their powers that people do decouple from national politics - for example mayors and First Ministers. I wouldn't even know my councillors far less have an opinion, I'd know my MSPs and I know the mayor etc. But I don't think it's a challenge to the worth of devolution - most timmes if you're locally popular like Street and Houchen that will work (and latest polls still are that they'll hold on), but sometimes like when there's a 20% swing against your party in a government there's just a national tide that'll take everyone (particularly with the last 5 years).

[Sheilbh]

Totally separate "National Rail Service" is dreadful. The public can't be trusted with anything

[PJL]

Since we're so London centric in this country, might as well call it the LTER, the London To Everywhere Railway.

[Barrister]

[my post didn't save for some reason, not important enough to re-type]

[Savonarola]

Totally separate "National Rail Service" is dreadful. The public can't be trusted with anything

I like Rail Britania 

[Sheilbh]

I like Rail Britania 

So that won the Twitter poll run by Labour's Shadow Transport Minister, which I suppose is just another point to Twitter not being the real world