Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Gups]

When they come to power Labour really need to fix this transparent tory gerrymandering fptp crap in local elections at least.

I don't agree with it being FTTP but it's not gerrymandering. No boundaries have changed

[Barrister]

When they come to power Labour really need to fix this transparent tory gerrymandering fptp crap in local elections at least.

I don't agree with it being FTTP but it's not gerrymandering. No boundaries have changed

So I do agree with FPTP, but that's for another time.

Gerrymandering can definitely be a thing, but not necessarily.  FPTP can bring odd results even without deliberately playing with riding boundaries.  In Canada the Conservative Party has a lot of "wasted" votes because we run up massive majorities in a lot of ridings in Alberta and Saskatchewan of 70+% - but this isn't because of gerrymandering.  As a result the Conservatives have to win by a few percentage points in order to make sure we get more votes than the Liberals.

[Josquius]

I use gerrymandering non literally.
Is there a better term for fiddling elections to up your chances that doesn't touch boundaries?

Without a doubt it is what they've done here. Mayors for a long time were elected under a fairer system... But this damaged their chances.

[Barrister]

I use gerrymandering non literally.
Is there a better term for fiddling elections to up your chances that doesn't touch boundaries?

Without a doubt it is what they've done here. Mayors for a long time were elected under a fairer system... But this damaged their chances.

What did they do?

Because there's a difference between "cheating" and "trying to win".

[Sheilbh]

Changed the system for metro mayors from instant run-off to FPTP. Instant run off is better, in my view, for a directly elected executive role.

[HVC]

Weighted average elections seem weird to me.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting - votes starting to be counted in London and looking good for Khan so far. A lot of his campaign was on the voting system/need for FPTP style voting - and it looks like it's worked. Unlike elsewhere so far it looks like the Greens are down as voters moved behind Khan, some Lib Dem voters appear to have done the same.

At the same time some Tory voters appear to have moved to the Lib Dems.

Early days and Khan-ish areas so far (also not particularly Muslim areas) so we may see more of what's happened in other parts of the country later, but the initial briefings based on turnout figures don't appear accurate any more.

Edit: Apparently only 3,000 votes in the West Midlands race - going to recount.

[Sheilbh]

So Street lost.

That means of the 11 mayoralties up for election this year, the Tories lost 10. Houchen, who held on, saw his vote cut by about 15%.

Tories lost about half their council seats up for election and, in councillors won (at this election), came third behind the Lib Dems - Professor Sir John Curtice says it's the first time he can think of that happening (sure he'll look into it but would absolutely trust him to get it right off the top of his head ).

Absolutely dreadful results for the Tories. Would still be mad but starting to feel that a challenge to Sunak might happen.

Edit: And fairly plausible that Sunak is personally responsible for the Street loss given that Street's personal brand was about delivering stuff for his region - and Sunak then had the Tory party conference "relaunch" in Birmingham, in that region, where he announced he was scrapping that bit of HS2. It'd take a heart of stone not to laugh.

[Josquius]

Good times.
Though fecking smoggies.

Also worrying noticed locally second place in Sunderland was the fascists.
I'm hoping this was purely down to the candidate having a Sunderland address. The Sunderland press has been moaning about Newcastle centiricty and how awful Tyne and wear was.
Of course always a chance it's something darker. Sunderland is the brexit poster child after all. There's serious issues there.

[Sheilbh]

It's the poster child for everything because they can count quickly so it's all anyone has to talk about for the first two hours of literally every election

Separately SNP below 30% in the polls for the first time in 10+ years Labour have the lead there so map of Scotland at next election may look very different, especially if there's unionist party tactical voting as happens in Scottish elections.

[Valmy]

It's the poster child for everything because they can count quickly so it's all anyone has to talk about for the first two hours of literally every election

Separately SNP below 30% in the polls for the first time in 10+ years :w00t Labour have the lead there so map of Scotland at next election may look very different, especially if there's unionist party tactical voting as happens in Scottish elections.

So the UK: not waning?

[Sheilbh]

Well I've always thought that was a little overblown

But, you know, the UK has no right to existence and we may well see independence for the constituent nations or unification with Ireland. Unionists need to make that case and the UK needs to prove its value to all parts. At the same time the SNP don't have a right to govern and independence isn't inevitable, they also need to make that case and prove there's value in that path.

[Josquius]

I didn't consider Scottish independence much at all in the renaming. They'd just be escaping a sinking ship rather than much to do with its sinking.
Britain is very much a nation in decline whether it stays together or breaks apart.

[Sheilbh]

Oh sure but Scotland would be literally part of the country leaving which would very much be waning

I always read the title as being about break-up - otherwise, I mean the UK's been waning for a very long time.

On Scotland a party activist who is not in any elected office is confident he has the nominations (100 nominations from 20 party branches) to force a leadership campaign. He's a well known figure - been around the party and conference for years and a long-standing critic of the leadership. Obviously he'll lose (but might attract support from party members who are just dissatisfied). Apparently he's a Georgist and Indy fundamentalist

[Josquius]

A real living breathing Georgist?
That's amazing.
Taking some of their ideas on board for tax reform seems fair enough. Basing taxes heavily on land rather than what's on it- seems a good way we can encourage density, give tax breaks for gardens, etc...
But the idea that can be the only tax and based purely on land value is just hilariously insane.