What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Jacob]

Thank you for the summary

[Tonitrus]

I think she is very unlikely to edge out Trump...his cult of personality is likely too strong.

She would clean Biden's clock in the general.  It won't be a blowout...partisanship will narrow any gap down, but I think she would have no problem drawing in the on-the-fence types worried about Biden's age.

[Sheilbh]

Coalescing arund Haley as the anti-Trump candidate?

What's the Languish take on:

1) Haley's chances?

So I agree with everyone else here. But I'd add a couple of caveats. If she were to win New Hampshire I think that would transform the entire narrative which might have a wider (and unpredicable) impact.

The other is DeSantis. There's been some stuff from focus groups/polling guys that he might surprise in Iowa (because it's notoriously difficult to poll). The other possibility is, of course, that he loses badly and also pulls out.

[Zoupa]

My prediction:

It's going to be Trump vs Biden, with another Biden win, and more violence following election night.

[Sheilbh]

My prediction:

It's going to be Trump vs Biden, with another Biden win, and more violence following election night.

I think this is my prediction too

(My previous predictions have included storming results for Scott Walker and Ron DeSantis and a fondness for Martin O'Malley, dark horse - so we're doomed)....

[Josquius]

That's my touch wood prediction.
Though I do fear Biden might not be able to bring out as as much anti-Trump support as last time. Memories are too short and threat feels less real than when he's actually sitting next to the red button.

[Admiral Yi]

I predict Haley wins the nom and beats Biden.

[The Minsky Moment]

Yi in full Norman Vincent Peale mode, good for him.

Are you caucusing for her?

[Zanza]

Just to be different: I predict Haley vs Newsom with Haley winning.

[Barrister]

Coalescing arund Haley as the anti-Trump candidate?

What's the Languish take on:

1) Haley's chances?

So I agree with everyone else here. But I'd add a couple of caveats. If she were to win New Hampshire I think that would transform the entire narrative which might have a wider (and unpredicable) impact.

The other is DeSantis. There's been some stuff from focus groups/polling guys that he might surprise in Iowa (because it's notoriously difficult to poll). The other possibility is, of course, that he loses badly and also pulls out.

There's a long history though of surprising candidates winning in New Hampshire, only to get thoroughly creamed in the next set of primaries.  Think Paul Tsongas in 1992, Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020, or Pat Buchanan in 1996.  New Hampshire is an odd little place.

What Haley would need is not only a win in New Hampshire, but also in South Carolina.  South Carolina is strongly pro-Trump, but Haley as former governor is well regarded also.  Best numbers I can find are Trump +14 over Haley, which isn't insurmountable.

But even assuming a win in NH and SC (Nevada is in between those two also), you then run right into Super Tuesday a couple of weeks later.  No matter how much momentum Haley might theoretically have with a win in both primaries, she doesn't have time to really ramp up in such a huge number of states and Trump still has just a crushing advantage in national polls.

[Sheilbh]

Totally - and it could very easily swing back to Trump as the comeback kid (like Clinton for, I think, coming third in New Hampshire ) if he then wins the next primary really easily.

But I think the transformation would be from this is a coronation to this is a race - and I think even that shift could change everything. For example Trump has been a no show at the debates - would that be sustainable if there's actually a bit of competition? I feel like the charge that he's running scared would land a bit better. So far DeSantis and Haley etc feels like a phoney war - Trump is inevitable. That would change - and again that's partly because of choices Trump has made and the campaign he's run, that would be questioned. As I say I think it's unpredictable but I think even opening the possibility of Trump not winning the candidacy is a very big shift.

In a way I think it'd be an interesting test of the right wing media - because from a purely journalistic perspective a competitive race is a better story than a procession to the nomination. It'd be interesting to see if that instinct would kick in for them - or for which ones it would and which would still be pushing the inevitability of Trump/insolence of challenging him.

[Syt]

I don't think Haley can overcome the major handicap that will leave her unpalatable for a large chunk of the MAGA-crowd: she's a woman.

[Zoupa]

She's also not white. At least physically.

[Valmy]

Haley sucks but at least I think she won't try to destroy our democratic institutions. So I guess I would welcome my new evil overlord if she were to win.

[Barrister]

I don't think Haley can overcome the major handicap that will leave her unpalatable for a large chunk of the MAGA-crowd: she's a woman.

For all the hate the MAGA crown can and should receive - they seem to have no problem with women leaders.  See Sarah Palin, MTG, heck even Haley herself as governor...

She's also not white. At least physically.

Trump has just started to "go there" so maybe the numbers will change, but so far no indication that's an issue (she's also pretty light-skinner, has a white-sounding name, and is a Christian).

No, the knock against Haley is more that "she's just a typical politician", and that she isn't as transgressively entertaining as Trump is.